My analysis of the Presidential race
Saturday, February 23rd, 2008Here’s my take on the Presidential race so far. It’s nonpartisan; I don’t like any of the frontrunners.
If Obama is the Democratic candidate, the Democrats will win big. Conservatives will stay home. They don’t like McCain, and eight years of their man, Bush, overspending has disheartened them.
If Hillary is the Democratic candidate, the Democrats will still win, but only by a little. Many conservatives will come out just to vote against her, but it won’t be enough. Bush has really succeeded in crushing their spirit, plus Libertarians, who have totally given up on the Republican Party, will vote for a third-party candidate.
Here’s the only combination of factors that could defeat the Democrats: Hillary is the candidate and
1) She has stolen the nomination from Obama through superdelegates, or by getting state delegates that have already been discounted by the DNC to be counted in her favor, or by any other means perceived underhanded by voters. Blacks and independents will feel cheated, and they will rebel against it by voting for McCain, who is not that far to the right of Hillary.
2) The New York Times and other major media outlets continue to attack McCain with political hit pieces. That will cause conservatives to rally around McCain in a big way because they hate the NY Times and left wing media far more than they are dissatisfied with McCain.
3) Hillary continues to turn off male voters. This is a dynamic that no one will talk much about, but it’s obvious most men don’t like her. Let’s call it the Bitch Factor, but Hillary has a smug look that reminds a lot of men of someone they’d rather forget.
4) The Dems talk about gun control too soon, as in before the election. This will set off alarms in the heads of one-issue voters who regard the Second Amendment as the most important amendment, and they will go to the polls to vote against gun control.
The Democrats can avoid a lot of headaches by just nominating Obama. They’ll win the Presidency and Congress in a landslide. Blame yourself, Republican Party. You forsook conservative and libertarian principles for too long, and now you will pay the price.
