My analysis of the Presidential race
Here’s my take on the Presidential race so far. It’s nonpartisan; I don’t like any of the frontrunners.
If Obama is the Democratic candidate, the Democrats will win big. Conservatives will stay home. They don’t like McCain, and eight years of their man, Bush, overspending has disheartened them.
If Hillary is the Democratic candidate, the Democrats will still win, but only by a little. Many conservatives will come out just to vote against her, but it won’t be enough. Bush has really succeeded in crushing their spirit, plus Libertarians, who have totally given up on the Republican Party, will vote for a third-party candidate.
Here’s the only combination of factors that could defeat the Democrats: Hillary is the candidate and
1) She has stolen the nomination from Obama through superdelegates, or by getting state delegates that have already been discounted by the DNC to be counted in her favor, or by any other means perceived underhanded by voters. Blacks and independents will feel cheated, and they will rebel against it by voting for McCain, who is not that far to the right of Hillary.
2) The New York Times and other major media outlets continue to attack McCain with political hit pieces. That will cause conservatives to rally around McCain in a big way because they hate the NY Times and left wing media far more than they are dissatisfied with McCain.
3) Hillary continues to turn off male voters. This is a dynamic that no one will talk much about, but it’s obvious most men don’t like her. Let’s call it the Bitch Factor, but Hillary has a smug look that reminds a lot of men of someone they’d rather forget.
4) The Dems talk about gun control too soon, as in before the election. This will set off alarms in the heads of one-issue voters who regard the Second Amendment as the most important amendment, and they will go to the polls to vote against gun control.
The Democrats can avoid a lot of headaches by just nominating Obama. They’ll win the Presidency and Congress in a landslide. Blame yourself, Republican Party. You forsook conservative and libertarian principles for too long, and now you will pay the price.
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Dave,
Good analysis. I must agree that all three of the current candidates with potential of being elected are quite liberal in their beliefs and in their performance to date. As for the “Hillary factor” I believe there are many women who will vote for her just because she is a woman…heck, I know a few who will. In addition, I know voters who will not vote for Obama because of his race.
As usual, the candidates continue to flood us with ‘feel good’ rhetoric, using generic terms like ‘change’, ‘the future’, etc. Yet to be discussed are any issues of substance or any real plans they have. As you mentioned re gun control, it’s probably best for them that we don’t know their real plans. However, we can judge from their records.
The major media (ALL of them) just feed us pap about the race; sensational stuff calculated only to capture viewers or listeners. When that becomes dull, we get a crisis involving a Hollywood star, any distraction will work.
BTW, I respect McCain for his service to our country, but that does not necessarily make him a good candidate for POTUS. One of my uncles was a POW for over three years during the Korean War, but I don’t think he’d have made a really good president…on second thought though he probably would have cleaned house!
With all this going on, plus the stuff with the Patriot Act, I feel as if we are living out the book “1984″. Remember:
WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH
God Bless America.
FWIW,
C. Sanders
Shoals, IN
February 23rd, 2008 at 6:17 pm
I can’t remember having such a poor choice in the major party candidates since 1976 with Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford, which was also my first voting experience after turning 18. I voted for Gerald Ford but didn’t feel too good about it. I imagine that I’ll end up voting for McCain this year but I won’t be knocking down the doors to get there!
Sadly, most of those voting for Obama can’t even tell you why when it comes to the issues.
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:35 pm
Great analysis Dave. That’s pretty much my take as well. I’d like to have a Conservative Republican to vote for, but there isn’t one. And I can’t vote for McCain (of McCain/Feingold fame).
So its at least 4 more years for the Dems.
February 24th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
And now there’s Ralph Nader.
February 28th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Dave, excellent analysis! Is it any wonder that they started campaigning earlier than usual (almost an entire year earlier)? I found myself in line at the bank today where they had CNN playing. I blurted out that I was sick of the coverage on teh presidential election and said something along the lines of “enough already”. Then the thought occured to me. Of course, the pundits probably knew that there was nothing but lackluster candidates tossing their hats into the ring, and that boring us to tears with the affair was probably part of their strategy to begin with. Thanks for a great magazine. Keep up the good work!