Sometimes CNN just gets it wrong
No wonder people have little faith in the news media.
John Silveira just called me to point out a misleading news story now being
carried by CNN. The story claims the current swine flu scare has a long way to go to match the 36,000 flu deaths that occur annually in this country. It’s the 36,000 figure itself that is so misleading, because the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) lumps influenza AND pneumonia deaths TOGETHER. There are actually only about 1,000 deaths from flu each year, not 36,000.
Silveira wrote an extensive article about the potential for a flu pandemic in BHM’s Issue #97 (January/February 2006). Unfortunately we never put the article online and we are now sold out of that issue, but here’s a quote from page 58:
The CDC reports 36,000 influenza deaths a year. This is higher than the
number that occurred in 1968-69 (a pandemic year) when 34,000 died. So, why isn’t every year a pandemic year? Because the CDC lumps flu deaths and pneumonia deaths together. The actual number of flu deaths is about 1,000 a year, although in a bad year it can approach 3,000. Why are the flu and pneumonia deaths lumped together? I don’t know. But there are those who feel it’s a scare tactic provided as a favor to drug companies so they can sell flu vaccines.
This is why people read BHM, I think, because we try and research our facts before we print them.
April 29th, 2009 at 10:48 am
Dave,
The deaths are lumped together due to the high prevalence of pneumonia as a complication of the flu. That’s one reason that those at risk (including all over 50) are urged to get the pneumonia vaccine (some say once, other say every five years). In the 1918 pandemic, deaths were not reported separately (or in the several years after), but were in some later pandemics that century (which is one reason some of the others seemed to be milder). Of course, in 1918 many of the deaths are not even included (asian countries are especially bad at minimizing the numbers reported for this type of thing and in many african countries there simply are not any counts available — some experts put the deaths at 100-200 million for that pandemic).
Anyway, that is why the deaths are now reported separately, so that “standard” pneumonia cases are not confused with actual flu cases. In a pandemic flu, you don’t survive long enough to get pneumonia (and those that do tend to die in roughly the same percentages as from any other flu, since their body has to fight that off first in either case). Also, a pandemic flu hits the population usually not considered “at high risk” the hardest – healthy adults between 20 and 40. I’m sure you are aware that the Marine Corps is already reporting it’s first cases, as is the Army.
You might also want to check out this article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/opinion/28barry.html?_r=1
“What’s important to keep in mind in assessing the threat of the current outbreak is that all four of the well-known pandemics seem to have come in waves. The 1918 virus surfaced by March and set in motion a spring and summer wave that hit some communities and skipped others. This first wave was extremely mild, more so even than ordinary influenza: of the 10,313 sailors in the British Grand Fleet who became ill, for example, only four died. But autumn brought a second, more lethal wave, which was followed by a less severe third wave in early 1919.”
The author has a book (The Great Influenza) which goes into the pandemics in detail. But we are at the end of the flu season and this flu has just jumped to humans. If it follows the path of previous pandemic flu’s, the hardest waves will start at the end of the year.
April 29th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Karen, right on!
Your last paragraph is especially important. It’s the beginning of the next flu season we really need to get ready for. We should begin making antivirals like Tamiflu and Relenza available to every family now, since it is most effective if taken within hours of the first symptoms of flu outbreak. Instead, many doctors now are reluctant to prescribe it, fearing, I suppose, that people will horde it and we’ll run out of our supply. Stocking up on it is exactly what we should be doing, and the Government could make good use of some of that Stimulus money by helping people buy extra doses.
April 29th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
Thanks to Karen on her post. I am a student of history but was unaware of the waves of the 1918 outbreak. I assumed the long duration of the outbreak was due to slow transmission due to the lack of air travel.
I guess I need to get on Amazon and stock up the nightstand along with the pantry and medicine cabinet.
April 30th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Dave,
I’ve been trying to find my issue but I must have lost it to my dog, chewing it up! Yes, my dog ate my homework. Okay, now onto the comment:
Did I remember correctly that John stated the worst case scenario was the avian flu, mutating to swine flu, transmitting to humans and THEN human to human infection?
It sure would be nice to have this almost prophetic pearl of wisdom posted online. Between that and the Coming American Fascism, your magazine may be considered a three to five year crystal ball!
Robert
May 2nd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Robert: I had the article about Avian Flu put online: http://www.backwoodshome.com/articles2/silveira97.html
May 3rd, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Mr. Duffy,
We should not be as worried about the swine flu as much as we should be worried about what our government will attempt to do about it. Our government is not comprised totally of idiots. They will use this situation to their advantage. However, I don’t rule out a few idiots here and there within the bowels of the bureaucracy making the problem worse; or a busybody doing everything whether it be right or wrong in an attempt to look pro-active. This is a good time to try to justify more health care schemes or regular schemes disguised as health care reform.
May 3rd, 2009 at 4:11 pm
I agree. Government’s “solution” often ends up the bigger problem. Especially when it comes to taking a chomp out of our individual liberty.
May 3rd, 2009 at 5:36 pm
I too am worried about the next flu season. The fact that the flu has made the jump is worrisome. I saw that WHO issued a statement basically saying what Karen said – this is from a CNN article online:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/03/swine.flu/index.html
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I saw something about Ron Paul talking about the 1976 swine flu. Does anyone know, did that flu not go anywhere and just fizzled out?
Thank you for all your wonderful articles on preparedness, it has greatly helped our family. I saw a show an Oprah a few years ago on when we have another pandemic (not if it will happen but when it happens, because another will hit). The doctor on said basically the same thing, your only chance is isolation, pure and simple. He also warned that everything will shut down. Gas stations, supermarkets, everything, and basically be prepared for a three month isolation to keep your family safe. I wonder how many people are really prepared?