View Full Version : Hungry yet??
World food production isn't keeping up with the never ending
baby boom which has suppassed food production capacities.
The crunch will come to the poor first, then to all.
http://green.yahoo.com/news/ap/20071204/ap_on_bi_ge/china_world_food_prices.html
BEIJING - Food prices are set to rise around the globe after years of decline, with climate change making it harder for the world's poorest to get adequate food, according to a report released Tuesday.
Rising global temperatures as well as growing food consumption in rapidly developing countries such as China and India are pressuring the world food system, meaning that food prices will rise for the foreseeable future, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute.
Joachim von Braun, the director of the Washington-based research group, said food prices have been in a declining trend since scientists began developing high-yield plant varieties decades ago, "but the days of falling food prices may be over."
"The last time the world experienced such food price increases was in 1973 to 1974 ... but today the situation is completely different. For one, the climate risk and climate change situation has increased, the climate vulnerability has increased," von Braun told reporters in Beijing.
The institute said in a report that hunger and malnutrition could rise as poor agricultural communities most sensitive to the environment, such as in Africa, are hurt. Dependency on food imports will also increase as cereal yields decline in those countries.
The world's agricultural production is projected to decrease by 16 percent by 2020 due to global warming, the report said, with land used for certain crops shrinking. For example, it said land to grow wheat could almost disappear in Africa.
It said growing demand in rapidly developing countries such as China and India for processed food and expensive meat and dairy products is driving up prices for those goods, as well as for staple grains used to feed cattle.
In addition, switching to crops used for biofuels will also reduce the amount of available food and increase prices, it said.
Trade barriers for food should be eliminated, especially in developed nations, the report recommended, so small farmers can earn more money.
"A world facing increased food scarcity needs to trade more, not less," the report said.
The European Union and the United States have been reluctant to cut support for their own farmers and reduce trade barriers in world trade talks.
admin
12-16-2007, 07:17 AM
The world's agricultural production is projected to decrease by 16 percent by 2020 due to global warming, the report said, with land used for certain crops shrinking. For example, it said land to grow wheat could almost disappear in Africa.
I seem to recall reading awhile back that global warming would likely increase net global food production due to increases in arable land, longer growing seasons, and more CO2 for plants to use. Sorry, can't recall the source.
The trouble is, of course, that nobody on either side has any real evidence of anything other than the climate is, indeed changing here on earth, just as it seems to be changing on other planets and moons in the solar system. Is this particular blip going to be long term or short term? Nobody knows. Thirty years ago they were rending garments over "the coming ice age."
The so-called evidence on which folks like Algore base their diatribes are computer models. Computer models are only as good as the data and algorithms that drive them. Older programmers may remember GIGO. Garbage in, garbage out.
These so-called experts cannot accurately and continuously predict what the weather will be next week, yet we are expected to believe they can predict the weather decades in the future?
Male cow manure.
Oliver
edward_4576
12-16-2007, 09:28 AM
Well Oliver as you are aware all the over heating on other planets is caused by the probes that we sent that emit those deadly CO2 emissions. I'm doing my part to reduce the carbon foot print, I'm eating those bovines that are emitting those noxious emissions.
PETA - People Eating Tasty Animals
;D
I seem to recall reading awhile back that global warming would likely increase net global food production due to increases in arable land, longer growing seasons, and more CO2 for plants to use. *Sorry, can't recall the source.
The trouble is, of course, that nobody on either side has any real evidence of anything other than the climate is, indeed changing here on earth, just as it seems to be changing on other planets and moons in the solar system. Is this particular blip going to be long term or short term? Nobody knows. Thirty years ago they were rending garments over "the coming ice age."
The so-called evidence on which folks like Algore base their diatribes are computer models. *Computer models are only as good as the data and algorithms that drive them. Older programmers may remember GIGO. Garbage in, garbage out.
These so-called experts cannot accurately and continuously predict what the weather will be next week, yet we are expected to believe they can predict the weather decades in the future?
Male cow manure.
Oliver
Well taken points all. However, no matter which side of this discussion
all are on the ALL ignore the elephant in the room.......overpopulation.
By nothing more than sheer numbers the human population "IS"
causing global changes in everything from the weather to the
food supply. One needs to remember much of the food we eat is
possible due to forced yields fostered by petrol products. Without
these petrol products crop yields would be far, far smaller. Far smaller.
Remove these petrol products and watch the world starve in numbers
beyond our imagination. :o :o
CarolAnn
12-16-2007, 05:10 PM
I think George Carlin had one answer: eat poor people.
:P
We could solve a whole lot of problems with some mass sterilization! Maybe . . . a nice virus that shuts down the reproductive system? Or a ray gun that would do it. (We could try them out at the borders!)
(Sorry, folks - I haven't had my anti-goofy pill today!)
as long as Mc D's still has the $.99 double cheeseburgers, I'll be good :D
as long as Mc D's still has the $.99 double cheeseburgers, I'll be good :D
And the question is......
What is that brown stuff in McD's burgers that is passed off
as "meat"? :o :o :o
Overpopulation eh? So, what are our choices beyond war or mass murder?
jim
U.S. food inflation parallels 70s on ethanol boom
Fri Dec 14, 2007 9:58pm GMT
By Christine Stebbins
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Rising U.S. food inflation, now a 25-year high, is reminiscent of the 1970s and will continue for the next five years due to growing world economies, increased food demand and a sharp expansion of corn-based ethanol production, a top food economist said on Friday.
"What happened in the early '70s and what is happening today is that we have moved food input price to a new plateau. Ultimately, the consumer is going to have to absorb those increased costs," said Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions, who on Thursday released a study that looked at food inflation data going back to the 1960s.
Futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, the benchmark for commodity grain and soy markets, have risen to multi-year highs this year. Wheat hit an all-time high of $9.81-3/4 a bushel just on Friday. Soybeans on Friday reached over $11.60 a bushel, a price not seen since 1973, and corn rose to $4.37-1/4 in February, the highest level in a decade.
"The underpinnings for the higher commodity prices are world economic growth, a weak dollar and increased use of our corn crop for the production of ethanol," Lapp told Reuters in an interview.
While most of the U.S. corn crop, or 43 percent is fed to livestock to produce meat, dairy products and eggs, an increasing percentage is being used to produce ethanol. Twenty-four percent of this year's corn crop will be turned into ethanol, up from just 14 percent two years ago.
The higher cost of raw commodities contributed to the Consumer Price Index for food, a broadly used gauge for inflation, which rose to an annual rate of 5.4 percent during the first 10 months of 2007, a level not seen since 1980, according to Advanced Economic's study.
"During the next five years, food inflation is forecast to increase by an average of 7.5 percent, well above the 2.3 percent average of the past 10 years.
"The U.S. experienced a similar period of rising commodity prices and food inflation in the 1970s. Commodity prices doubled ... this ultimately resulted in food inflation from 1972 to 1981 averaging 8.2 percent," the study said.
Traditionally, the food industry -- processors, grocery stores, restaurants, and others -- absorbed the cost of higher commodity prices within its operating margins as the rise was temporary given the competitiveness of retailers.
But times are changing, said Lapp, who is a consultant to the food and agricultural industries.
"The difference in the current environment is that we're in the midst of a sustained increase," he added.
The world is not going back to the long-term averages -- $2.40 a bushel corn, $3.50 wheat or $5.50 soybeans, he said.
From 2008-2012, Lapp is estimating that CBOT corn prices will average $4 a bushel, wheat $6.50 a bushel and soybeans $10 a bushel.
Experts agree that global demand for food and rising energy prices are two key drivers of rising inflation, but they differ on how much of an influence corn prices are having on food inflation.
Another study released by analytical firm Informa Economics this week said that historically, there has been very little relationship between corn prices and food inflation.
In the past, for every dollar an American consumer spends on food, only 19 cents goes to the farmer, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The balance, or 81 cents, goes to labor, fuels transportation, packaging, and other non-farm costs.
"The input costs increases are tremendous. Without any relief, the only recourse is to pass along some of the costs to consumers," Lapp said.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1433616520071214
Wheat now at $10 a Bussell! :o :o
"Dec. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat rose above $10 a bushel for the first time, bolstering prices for other grains and oilseeds and stoking inflation.
Chicago wheat futures rose as much as 30 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $10.095 as dry weather threatened crops in Argentina, adding to concern the world's farmers may not be able to grow enough to meet demand for bread, pasta and livestock feed. Rice also jumped to a record, while soybeans reached the highest in 34 years and corn was its costliest in nine months.
Kellogg Co., the maker of Frosted Mini-Wheats cereal and Eggo waffles, and General Mills Inc., the maker of Cheerios cereal, already have raised prices. Kikkoman Corp., Japan's biggest maker of soy sauce, is planning its first price increase in 18 years, while Sara Lee Corp. said Dec. 13 it will increase bread prices for a second time since September.
``We are seeing a broad-based increase in cost pressures,'' Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Group Ltd., said in an interview from Sydney today. ``The increase in soft commodity prices is really the next stage in that process.''
The price of wheat has more than doubled in the past year as drought reduced output from Australia to Canada. Dry, warm weather may hurt yields in Argentina, the world's fourth-largest exporter, forecaster Meteorlogix LLC said Dec. 14.
A smaller Argentine crop may reduce global wheat inventories that the U.S. government says will drop 11 percent by May 31 to 110.1 million metric tons.
`Fear Factor'
``Global supply is really tight at this time,'' said Tobin Gorey, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. ``Saying there's a near-term top in the price is a very dangerous thing to do.''
Wheat for March delivery, the most-active contract, rose 21.5 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $10.01 a bushel after earlier rising the exchange-imposed daily limit of 30 cents in after- hours electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade.
U.S. consumer prices rose the most in more than two years last month, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's concern that inflation will erode confidence in the economy.
The consumer price index, a U.S. Department of Labor measure of prices paid by urban customers for a basket of goods or services, showed on Dec. 14 that the cost of food rose 4.1 percent in the three months ended Nov. 30.
The CPI for food and beverages rose partly because of increased costs for cereal and bakery products, along with higher prices for fruits and vegetables, the department said.
``You can see inflation picking up,'' said Jerod Leman, a broker at Wellington Commodities in Carmel, Indiana.
Accelerating Inflation..........
Inflation is accelerating partly because U.S. interest rates are too low, eroding the value of the dollar, Leman said.
``Interest rates have been too low for too long,'' he said. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan ``kept interest rates way too low and he started something that can't be stopped,'' Leman said. ``Inflation is starting to take over, and really, we haven't seen anything yet.''
Food prices will continue to rise through 2008 because wheat, corn and soybeans are expected to continue to rally, said Darin Newsom, a senior analyst at agriculture information company DTN in Omaha, Nebraska. Wheat may reach $14.50, based on technical and fundamental indicators, Newsom said.
Many speculative traders are trying to buy back their short positions, or bets that prices would fall, in the March and May contracts, and they are selling their July contracts. May contracts in Chicago rose 15.5 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $9.90 a bushel. Wheat for July delivery in Chicago fell 11.75 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $7.7625 a bushel overnight.
Europe, Noodles...........
European inflation increased last month at its fastest annual pace since May 2001.
``People need to eat and that's part of the fear factor in this environment,'' said Brett Cooper, an adviser on agriculture at broker MF Global Australia Ltd. ``There's people saying potentially $11 or even $13'' for wheat.
Higher food prices are forcing some Italians to eat at soup kitchens and threatening unrest in China, where a stampede at a supermarket sale of cooking oil killed three people in November.
The Chinese government said today it will eliminate export tax rebates on a range of food commodities such as wheat as part of a series of measures to secure domestic supplies and control rising food prices.
The tax incentives on exports of crops including rice, soybeans, corn, barley and oats, as well as flour milled from these grains, will be eliminated from Dec. 20. China's food costs gained 18.2 percent last month, pushing inflation to the highest in 11 years.
Russia, Egypt........
Russia, the world's fourth-biggest wheat exporter, plans to cap exports of the grain once shipments for the year from July reach 12.5 million tons, as the government struggles to control inflation. The threshold may be breached as early as January, according to Russia's Grain Union, which comprises the nation's biggest grain producers and traders.
Egypt, the world's second-largest wheat importer, last week canceled a tender for at least 80,000 tons of the grain because of high prices. Other customers are also cutting back, AWB Ltd., Australia's largest wheat exporter, said today.
``Buyers are reluctant to lock in significant tonnage at the current prices as their flour margins are negligible,'' the Melbourne-based company said in a statement. AWB ``expects the international wheat market to remain extremely tight for the first half of 2008.''
India, France.......
India's State Trading Corp. will close bids today to buy 350,000 tons of wheat as the country, the world's third-biggest importer of the grain last year, seeks to replenish reserves.
Milling wheat for March delivery on the Euronext.liffe exchange in Paris rose 9 euros, or 3.4 percent, to 272.75 euros ($392.04) a ton as of 4 p.m. local time. Prices have climbed 81 percent this year.
Soybean futures rose as much as 17.25 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $11.9225 a bushel in Chicago, the highest for a most-active contract since June 1973. The contract for March delivery was at $11.8150 at 7 a.m. local time.
Soybeans may lead gains among non-energy commodities next year because of shortages of acreage and rising demand for biofuels, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report Dec. 11. Prices have gained 73 percent this year after U.S. farmers planted the fewest acres in 12 years in favor of corn.
Corn for March delivery rose as much as 5 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $4.4325 a bushel in Chicago, the highest for a most- active contract since Feb. 26, when the price climbed to a 10- year high of $4.5025. The contract traded "
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=avaqM4yU0sU4
Overpopulation eh? So, what are our choices beyond war or mass murder?
jim
A return the the "Victory Gardens" so common during WWII.
Everybody turned their yards from "landscapes" to "food production".
I'd rather "eat" my yard than mow the grass. ;D ;D
I have no problem with potatoes and cabbage, and a lot of Eastern Europeans eat that today. While I don't care to live on that, I can, and small bio0intensive plots can work very well for family and larger units. If food does get this high, then some or all of the gasohol will go away for sure.
Who knows, the small family farm may make a comeback.
jim
I agree about the overpopulation thing that was mentioned. I think that if overpopulation is solved, then most or all of the resource problems will be solved. Overpopulation is the root problem. It makes no sense to fight symptoms (various shortages) when you can solve all these various symptoms by taking care of the root cause.
If we don't solve the overpopulation question, it will solve itself. History is a circle. Historically, overpopulation has been brought back to balance by war, famine and/or disease. If we don't solve the overpopulation problem (and I don't think we will), we can look forward to the return of these three old friends.
Along with the food shortage problem we will also begin to see a shortage of drinkable water. It is all being polluted. We will eventually be buying our drinking water. Those of us who can afford it anyway.
I agree with what someone said about the oil shortage effecting food production. The average piece of food, I am told, travels 1400 miles to end up in the store. If the price of oil rises, the price of food rises.
Fortunately, a person can learn to provide their own necessities without relying on supermarkets.
kawalekm
12-21-2007, 06:06 AM
China and India are two examples of totally failed population control. If their populations were only 1/10 of what they are now, they would still have some of the largest populations in the world! Even with rigid communist rule, China's population is still going up and up and up.
I agree that we all will face a future with less gasoline, less water, and less food, but more people. Man is just not wise enough to solve his problems by means other than starvation, disease, and war!
This is why I am a homesteader. By locating ourselves in a remote area away from the masses, I hope to create an environment where I can provide necessities for my family. I'll get by with making my own fuel, collecting my own water, and growing my own food. Add my own security, and that wraps it up.
Michael
oldnndway
12-21-2007, 06:47 AM
I think the fallacy in this whole global warming thing is that man can have an effect on something as large as the Earth.
I don't doubt that smog and polution can cause problems but I don't think the warmer trend we are seeing is caused by man.
We don't have any impact on other planets in our solar system yet they are undergoing clinmate change as well.
The sun is running a little hotter than normal.
It may hold steady, get hotter, cool down or go out and there ain't nothing we can do about it.
No doubt a cleaner environment is better for us and I would hope that excessive pollution is always kept in check...we've got to breath the air and drink the water .
Overpopulation is something that is easily observed in smaller eco-systems.
When animals overpopulate and reach numbers higher than their environment can support they die off to a sustainable level (and usually below that level)
They either starve or have disease cull the herd.
When mankind gets too thick for the resources here on Earth we will have mass starvation and/or rampant disease taking out large numbers of people.
It's coming sooner or later ... if we don't kill everybody first.
Food for the masses is, I think, a very solvable problem.
There is a whole lot of land that is usable that isn't being used to it's best advantage.
Water may well be the next big thing ... and as much seawater as there is I can see de-salinization plants getting a lot more focus in the coming years.
There is so much of the resources of this world as yet untapped that we should be able to keep going for a long time if "they" will only focus on ways to make do with what we have.
Southern_Gent
12-21-2007, 10:05 AM
In reading through the posts, I was thinking about how families could start their own gardens, not unlike the victory gardens of WWII, then I noticed that Buck had already made that comment.
There is one other thing that I would add, that is to becareful of supporting population control. This would be one more freedom lost, if such control were handed over to government or international agency. One can only imagine the horrors that would result from that.
vBulletin® v3.8.4, Copyright ©2000-2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.