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wax
07-02-2007, 08:57 AM
This particular observation involves what I call “The Day After Error”.

I have concerns with my parent’s generation but it is important to understand that I fear a new medieval saeculum is “likely” based on some of those mistakes.

In 1983 “the adults” (which included both the artists and the academe that they supplanted) decided in their great wisdom to insure that we children learned important lessons through the popular media.
What they didn’t understand fully of course was that the lessons we actually learned were going to be very different from the ones they wanted to teach us!

First… they insured that every one of us would see “The Exorcist” by sending each of us home with a note declaring that we must not watch it under any circumstances!

A thinking adult could predict what we would do with the notes and we not only all watched it edited for television, we made sure that someone rented it so we could see “the good stuff” as well.
Had they never mentioned the film at all few of us would have heard of it of course but as we viewed it lessons were learned that those adults could never had predicted.

I suspect that a percentage of us nomads experienced the exact problems that the adults feared we would by viewing it, but a few of us learned that one must become evil to destroy evil.
It remains to this day the only film that ever frightened me personally (but more on that later) because the enemy was not the little girl but something one could not fight in a way that a 14 year old male could understand.
Yet the girl was “saved” even if we didn’t understand exactly how she was saved.


The second lesson attempted was actually forced on us all with a zeal that to this day is hard to comprehend. Our teachers informed us that we must watch “The Day After” because it would be an important learning lesson.
It would be a moment for reflection and community togetherness that none of us would ever forget.
They might have been right in the latter part but they were very wrong concerning what lessons some of us would take away from it.

The day after “The Day After” we were herded into class to talk about this important movie and the important lessons it had to teach.
I noticed that we nomads had been split into two very different groups.
Many of us reacted as Angie Schuck did, “If there is ever a nuclear war I hope that I am killed on the very first blast,” she declared with a tear in her eye.
I suspect that this was the reaction the adults were hoping for because she was given a great deal of support for her response.
It of course started a discussion of how nuclear weapons should be banned and that the use of them by anyone insured that no one would survive… after all we are enlightened human beings and we must protect the world from our own self-destructiveness.
But she represented only one portion of my generation.

The teacher singled out Danny Ogle and asked him what he would do if the bombs were to fall tomorrow. Danny didn’t volunteer the information, he was asked so he responded.
“I would gather all of the guns and ammunition I could find; take over Cub’s Food’s, and I would kill anyone that got within shooting range!”

The teacher laughed momentarily and then moved on, “Seriously though… how would each of you help your neighbor and maintain contact with your government?”
The conversation moved on but Danny wasn’t kidding. And I found myself realizing that I would probably join him instead of lying down to die like Angie wanted to do.

The point is that by the age of fourteen, Danny and I had been trained to become feudal warlords long before he fully understood what they were (I of course had been exposed in other ways to the concept).

We had been trained for it with lessons that had been intended to teach us something very different, but they were lessons none-the-less.
Angie saw that movie and saw desperation which created fear, we saw that movie and saw hope… we saw moments that could lead to glory.
So what lessons did we learn that were unintentional?

First we learned that empathy and foolish emotions should be avoided if one doesn’t want to die (I am assuming that you recall the film of course) and we saw that we could survive a nuclear war if we were lucky enough, quick enough, and if we didn’t make “stupid” mistakes.
Lessons like: if you are in a basement waiting out radiological fallout, don’t follow some idiot girl outside (who you had just met by the way) or your hair will fall out just like hers!
If you notice strangers gathering around your safe house kill them… don’t talk, Don't ask questions, just assume that they are after your stuff and kill them before they can kill you (Danny noted that he found that example from the film especially stupid and I had to agree with him.)

The point is of course that while the adults expected us to view the breakdown of governmental support with fear and a reinforcement of how important community is we had already decided that if the government was doomed to fail anyway… then anyone who wanted to survive should kill the soldiers in the trucks and take the supplies for themselves.

For those of us who reacted this way, morality wasn’t really involved… or at least our perception of morality had become skewed by our perception of what morality actually was in an emergency.
Angie could give up if she wanted, but we had been taught not to do this… indoctrinated into the idea in fact.
I had been indocrtinated by my father to a greater extent than my peers, but society had planted the seed in them as well.
* * * *
In order to explain how that was done one would need to understand what I have come to call, “The Heston Paradox”.

Charlton Heston was my generations “Grey Prophet” for lack of a better term.
Our parents, in the seventies, loved to watch films in which the hero either died in the end, weeping about “loving one another” or some nonsense, or ran screaming in the streets attempting to tell everyone how things had gone so horribly wrong.

We nomads were far too young at the time to understand concepts like disillusionment, and the “art” that it could produce, but we understood that Charlton Heston was a would be hero with only one obvious flaw.
There was only one reason why he died at the end of a film with a spear in him or that he fell to the sand screaming questions that no one was around to answer, and we soon realized that if only that flaw were removed the conclusion (which was always ironically abrupt) could be avoided.
If only he didn’t care, he could have rode off into the sunset.
We started to rewrite those “foolish” endings for ourselves, if only in our own minds.

Our heroes were very different; in fact we demanded changes that the popular media didn’t quite understand.

We didn’t want to hear what “Mad Max” had to say, in fact the less he spoke the better!
All we wanted to see him do is take his vengeance and move on.
And we went farther than that… much farther.

When Hollywood offered us a hero we often chose the villain instead.
We didn’t care about some guy from the future sent back to save a doomed mankind; we wanted the machine to be our hero.
“Someone who can’t feel pain, who can’t be bargained with, who will not stop until you are dead!”
We wanted him so badly that Hollywood was forced to rewrite almost everything they had in order to fill that need.

We didn’t watch Jason in “Friday the 13th” to see some camper survive… we didn’t care if any of them survived. We wanted intent, and the resolve to carry that intent through. We wanted Jason to kill, and keep killing.
Freddy was a madman of course, but he got his point across, and that is all we really wanted because the one mistake our heroes didn’t make was forgetting what the end goal was.

So… what will happen if my generation encounters “the flimsiness of the social contract” as Strauss & Howe predict we will?

I am afraid to say that we will force a complete collapse even if it could be avoided, and some of us will do it with a horrid sense of glee!

I am sad to report that some of my associates approached Y2K with more excitement than trepidation. And more than a few of them were disappointed when the predicted collapse did not occur!
I am not sure how I feel about that.
I have sat at least a few down and asked them if they truly want the horrors that such an event would bring and of course they consciously deny such a desire, but I fear that subconsciously the desire is much harder to quell.

And again, it is just a thought. Yet I don’t see any reason to predict a reinforcement of the social contracts that our forefathers defended. *

We (adults born between 1961 and 1981) expect to someday kill to keep what we have.
We also expect to kill to take what others have.
But it isn't completely our fault: our parents wanted us to see how horrible life could be if man did not learn to love one another... if we all didn't join hands and sing songs together.
The problem of course is that we knew that could never happen.
So the choice left us (subconsciously) was simple really:
Fall down and cry over a half submerged statue like Heston did at the end of Planet of the Apes... or take the girls with your guns and teach those monkeys a lesson or two concerning genocide!

wax
07-02-2007, 09:23 AM
The original of the above was supplied to a Professor of history who taught a class on the cyclicity of history and the coming collapse.

It was the most fascinating class I ever took...

Terms like "nomads, and Grey Prophet" are taken from "The Fourth Turning" by Strauss & Howe.
This is a study of history which predicts a new "dark ages" within the next decade or so by using an 80 to 100 year cycle measured throughout written history.

It is solid study in that a cycle exists, but any real usefulness concerning prediction is up to the individual reader.

bookwormom
07-02-2007, 10:29 AM
I was just going to ask if you read "the Fourth Turning."

wax
07-02-2007, 10:42 AM
BWM- I was just going to ask if you read...

Wax- Why yes I did, and I retain a copy for reference.
It is a great work concerning the compilation of Saeculum but I do not agree with all conclusions.

I have had access to the publishers and while they have not conceded to my treaties as of yet I stand by my assertions!
Just kidding of course, I do not assert but provide observation.

My main complaint arrose out of the Civil War reduction because in order for the theory to hold such a thing can not be done: However...

If one looks at the Civil war as a complete saeculum which was compressed by the emmediancy of violence and the innability to escape it then one arrives at something like:

William Clarke Quantrill 1837 (nomad)
Capt. William Anderson 1840 (nomad with "hero perversion")
Jesse James 1847 (nomad/hero)
Frank James 1843. (nomad/hero)
Cole Younger 1844 (nomad/hero)
Bob Younger 1853 (hero perversion/artist)
James Younger 1848 (nomad/hero)

Of course someone who has not read the text in question just went "Huh?" but you know where I am going.

This might be a good forum to post my conclusions concerning the theory... at least I won't be accused of being a "kook" ;)

TNDadx4
07-03-2007, 02:46 AM
This sounds very interesting. A quick Google search yeilded some information, but I see that I am going to have to get the book in order to get the full concept.

I also remember seeing the The Day After and remember thinking that I do want to survive. This coupled with movies like Red Dawn made me think that I just don't want to roll over and die.

Thanks for the info and insight into a collective generational conscience.

~A fellow Nomad

wax
07-03-2007, 07:12 AM
TNDad- I am going to have to get the book in order to get the full concept.

Wax- I ordered mine used through Amazon for very little (less than five bucks).
But you really have a great deal available to you for free on the Internet.

Of course there is fourthturning .com, but an uninitiated might get lost in the conversation... Hell, I have read the books and I get lost!

One would do better researching the cycles of history and the patterns that have been established concerning society.
The theory as presented by Strauss and Howe is solid but not solid enough to base absolute conclusions on.
I will post the "basics" here for you.

wax
07-03-2007, 07:55 AM
Society is supported by humans, it is a "false construct" meaning that the rules governing it are accepted by the humans that are governed by it.

In a way, you can view society as any other set of rules, like a sport.

Football was formed by combining many different ideas for smaller games into a set of rules that govern play. But the original game looked very different than the game today because rules are modified over time in a very predictable way.
Sometimes rules are changed because the game simply gets boring over time. The pass is allowed to speed up play and make viewing the game more enjoyable.
Other rules are changed to make the game safer, or easier to manage.
We know that in the future some rules will be changed simply because it is predictable.

Society works in this way, predictable changes over time.
One of the truly exciting things is that because society has existed for so long we can see a pattern of highs and lows that allows us not only to better understand why events happened in the past but reliably predict what is likely to happen in the future.

This is by no means a "psychic" phenomenon. It is simple observation and compilation of that observation.

One of the very real dangers is that one can highlight patterns at will.
If you are looking to "prove" that drugs are a natural part of society and thus should not be banned you can find that data and use it.
You can do that with anything.

What Strauss and Howe have done is more generic, and thus more powerful.

They noticed a pattern in society that occured every four generations. This came to a period between 80 and 100 years.
They decided to label each generation in a repeating four generational pattern as follows:

1433-1460 Hero - Arthurian
1461-1482 Artist - Humanist
1483-1511 Prophet - Reformation
1512-1540 Nomad - Reprisal
1541-1565 Hero - Elizabethan
1566-1587 Artist - Parliamentary
1588-1617 Prophet - Puritan
1618-1647 Nomad - Cavalier
1648-1673 Hero - Glorious
1674-1700 Artist - Enlightenment
1701-1723 Prophet - Awakening
1724-1741 Nomad - Liberty
1742-1766 Hero - Republican
1767-1791 Artist – Compromise
1792-1821 Prophet - Transcendental
1822-1842 Nomad/Hero – Gilded/Bloody shirt
1843-1859 Hero/Artist – Progressive/Bloody “
1860-1882 Prophet - Missionary
1883-1900 Nomad - Lost
1901-1924 Hero – G.I
1925-1942 Artist - Silent
1943-1960 Prophet - Boom
1961-1981 Nomad – Thirteenth/X
1982-? Hero - Millennial

You will note that each generation has two titles but artist, prophet, nomad, and hero remain consistant.
The second title is a historical marker... an observation used to describe the generation in question.

Once that pattern was established another pattern became clear.

It turns out that every generation designated as "hero" has encountered a period of instability and warfare.
That is why they became known as "hero", because of the observation made concerning warfare and struggle.

But when the researchers looked at preceding and following generations they got a real shock; even though aligning generations are divided by a hundred years (or thousands) the basic conditions of the seperate societies in which they live... and the basic description concerning that generations mood and actions, remain the same!

We nomads have been represented in history before many times! And we have always led the heros to war!
Always... without fail.

We were the ones that became pissed off at King George and we were the ones who showed our younger brothers what to do about it!

And it explains something very importantv in history:
There was no "reason" for George Washington to fight!
He was the richest land owner in America, he could have paid taxes forever without suffering any hardship... in fact... he knew that by going to war he risked much more than any of his countrymen.
John Hancock was practically royalty in Boston. He actually made more money with higher taxes.

Yet these two men decided to throw everything aside and forced a fight! The King didn't want it... 75% of Americans didn't want it at first... but the Nomads wanted it, and history shows that there is no mechanism that can stop Nomads from pushing a fight!
It is in our nature, it is what we do.

About one hundred years later we were back in the saddle, and although our leaders begged us not to, we had a fight to start!
Many Americans know American history but not in the context of the world at the time.
Our Revolutionary War was only one war going on at the time, because Nomads are the same all over the world.
While we fought our King the French executed theirs.

And while we killed our brothers here in America Europe exploded into violence. Nomads are Nomads.
Most historians today consider our Civil War in a greater context of the industrialized wars.
We showed them how to kill better... to die faster.

One hundred years after 1842 we should have known what was coming... yet people still at least acted surprised.
The Nomads were fulfilling the same function that we always have. It is in our nature, it is what we do.

But patterns are patterns and often produce more patterns to be observed.
If the society in which a given Nomad generation exists is progressive, then the resulting struggle can be predicted to be containable.
But if the society in which a given Nomad generation exists is fundamental... then we are in for a great deal of trouble!

In 1842 society was fundamental. This means that the different sides have a basic dissagreement which can not be resolved.
Most people who view the Civil War fail to grasp what that fundamental difference was; it was not slavery.
The issue in 1842 was States rights verses Federal powers.
There has never been a bloodier or more frightening war than what occured when the Nomads of that time decided to take sides... but there will be.

All one needs to do to realize how fundamental our current society has become is to listen to popular media.
Everyone is a fundamentalist!
And the examples would be funny if they didn't point to the great sadness coming.

wax
07-03-2007, 08:03 AM
There can be little doubt that the terrorists we face today are fundamentalists. It can be easily seen.
But some fail to see fundamentalism in other groups because they forget that fundamentalism in this context is a measurement of depth of belief... not a description of that belief.

Putin is an X KGB leader. If you think he is progressive then you are only fooling yourself.

Bush certainly has fundamental beliefs whether we like them or not.

Kim Jong Il... well...

The new Chinese leadership president Hu oversaw the State Communist School. One is not awarded such a position if one is not a die hard communist.

But those are fairly easy to see and recognize.
Just listen to a Democrat for a few minutes:
"We hate Bush!"
"Yes but... he can't run for president ever again."
"We hate Bush!"
"Alright... but what are your platforms?"
"We hate Bush!"
"Alright! I got it... how do you plan to solve..."
"We hate Bush!"
"OK... I understand. What do you think of..."
"WE HATE BUSH! WE HATE BUSH! WE HATE BUSH!"

Not fundamentalist in their belief? Give me a break!

wax
07-03-2007, 08:22 AM
So where does that leave us?

Not in a good place, and in the near future liberals are likely to pine for the "good old days" of having Bush in office!

Because they don't realize a very important fact: Bush is not a Nomad!
Barack Obama is though... and so is Edwards.
But in the end it won't matter who is in office (though historically American Democrats have started wars while in office).

It doesn't matter who is in office because the Nomads are reaching maturity, and oike it or not we have a fight to start!

There has never been more fundamentalist fuel to feed the fire before, though the religious wars following 1540 can be a fundamentalist comparison.

It can't really be stopped, even if we all decided it was in our best interest.
And unfortunately very few of us understand the mechanisms involved today.

We will see nuclear weapons used in anger in our lifetime.
If our society was progressive we could at least predict a political solution to end the violence but again... unfortunately... we know better.

Like two hundred years ago we will kill until we are tired of killing. No one will win, everyone will lose.
China, India, Pakistan, Russia, America... there is no way to predict how things will actually occur but everyone will have a part to play.

The sad fact is that historians will not mention a little cess-pool like Iraq as anything more than an ignition source. The entire Middle East will be treated just as it always has been; little more than a resource.
But they believe they are of some sort of importance, so Mecca and Medina is likely to be erased in short order.
We will forget terrorism very quickly!
It is a nuisance at most.

I have "run the numbers" since I was a child.
China decided to go to war in the 70's and initiated it with the "one child" policy which insured they would have 40 million extra young men to throw away.
It is just a number but it is a fact, China has no choice but to go to war in the next decade.

MMmmm... how about 2 billion dead?
It is not beyond the realm of possibility even if it does seem insane to suggest it.
China expects to lose 500 million without blinking an eye, it is counting on it in fact!

Anyway... sleep tight (God knows I can't!)

Txanne
07-03-2007, 01:07 PM
It will not surprise you--that I am of a [[Danny ]] mindset.

But, I do think that by the time many decide to be a Danny---they will become the victum of their own
indecision---rightly so.

Rightly so--may upset the hand-holding--kumbaya singers--but --if ya blink you will either be a begger in the streets or dead.

I had the privelige of living a life of survivorship--the greatest teacher of all.

An inane sense of people--survivor instincts--heighten
my awareness.

And I will never blink--nor back up.

And of course--that could cost me my life---but I will go down standing on my feet---not kneeling before my enemy.

One hellva post

annie

bookwormom
07-03-2007, 02:03 PM
the concept in a nutshell: History repeats itself in a predictable way. If you would draw it it would look like a chain of circles. each circle is called a saeulum. A saeculum lasts a long, human life of ca. 80 to 100 years. it consists of four generations (or turnings ). The first generation comes after a crisis. the people are upbeat, work hard, build up, and everything functions, the government, organisations etc.

the next generation looks down their "spiritual ", I am better than my parents", nose at those materialists. they are the ones critical of their fathers, preaching free love and raising their kids without authority. things are still good but will start sliding.

In the next turning things loosen and frazzle, I always see it like a wire with the individual strands separated. Nothing functions anymore like it used to, people do not trust their government anymore, people are individualiced, families are in shreds, optimism is low and not much sense of hope.

the fourth turning is catastrophic, that generation will raise it's kids to become the builders of the first turning of the next saeculum, and so it goes. Of course a blind man on crutches can see where we are right now, a fourth turning is imminent. According to the theory.

TNDadx4
07-14-2007, 07:33 AM
Hey all,

Sorry for not responding sooner. I was out of town.

Anyway, It's very interesting. I've been to the fourthturning.com and yes I did get lost. I spent some time looking around and was able to piece together somethings, but could do much more.

I then went to Wikipedia (yes, I know that I can't believe everything that I read there) and looked it up. It explained some of what you all are referring to.

The concept itself seems to make sense. It certainly puts a new perspective on the fact that I am raising some "Heroes".

I've always been of the opinion that history does seem to repeat itself in some form or another.

I'm away of some of the "things" that I'm sure many here are aware of (ie: Putin being ex-KGB, etc.) and it amazes me that more of the world (read: United States) does not see what *I* see like China having a most favored trading status with us, unsecured borders, etc. It all sounds like lunacy at times.

I had an interesting talk with one of my bosses once and in the conversation, the subject came up that "...throughout history, ALL great civilizations fell at some time or another. What makes us arrogant enough to think that ours will last forever?"

Anyway, thanks for spelling some of it out so I can understand :)

Gwynyvyr
07-17-2007, 02:15 AM
Great thread!

China's *one couple-one child* policy (mandate) disturbed me from the first as anyone that has read even a smattering about Chinese society/culture knows they value sons over daughters and could predict what would happen.
Infant girls *exposed* (abandoned outside), gender-selective abortions, etc. have resulted in a surplus of (now) adult males with scant hope of fulfilling their biological imperative.
Sort of makes war inevitable.

My personal opinion...I think things will go back to tribal groups almost...in the US anyway...

jim
07-20-2007, 09:45 AM
A Return to Kosovo
By George Friedman

Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush will meet July 1-2 at the Bush family compound in Kennebunkport, Maine. The two will have several meaty items on their plate, including the planned U.S. missile defense shield in Central Europe and Russia's threat to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe. The main dish, however, will be Kosovo -- again.

This issue has been on the table since 1999, when the United States and its NATO allies, angered over Serbian behavior in Kosovo, ignored Russian objections and waged a 60-day air war against Yugoslavia. The Clinton administration charged that the Serbians were either conducting genocide against the Kosovar Albanians or were on the verge of it. Washington demanded the withdrawal of Serbian forces from Kosovo and, when that failed to happen, it commenced the air campaign.

It is important to recall that the Kosovo war, like the war in Iraq, did not have U.N. sanction. Russia, in particular, opposed the war, thus making U.N. Security Council passage of an enabling resolution impossible. Russia and Serbia are historical allies and under the guise of "fellow Slav," Moscow has promoted itself as Serbia's protector. It is an excuse Russia has used to get involved in many conflicts, including World War I. In 1999, however, the United States did not take Russia seriously when it considered how to handle Serbia. In 1999, under Boris Yeltsin, Russia didn't need to be taken seriously.

The war, however, did not go as expected. The Serbs did not capitulate after the first few days of bombardment, and neither the United States nor NATO was prepared to mount a ground attack into Kosovo. After two months of bombings, a diplomatic initiative was launched via Moscow, whose channels into Belgrade remained active since the Serbs retained some trust in the Russians. In a complex round of diplomacy, the Serbs agreed to withdraw their forces from Kosovo as long as the occupying force included a substantial Russian contingent.

In fact, the Russians sent a contingent of troops from their base in Bosnia through Serbia to Kosovo, arriving at the airport in Pristina as the bombing ended. Rather than integrate the Russian forces into the NATO force in Kosovo, the peacekeeping presence known as KFOR, NATO marginalized them.

From the Russians' point of view, they had been double-crossed. They had gotten the Serbs to agree to a withdrawal on the proviso that the Russians would be a substantial part of KFOR. This was crucial because it was understood that they would guarantee the one part of the agreement that was a dealmaker to the Serbs. Serbia would withdraw from Kosovo, but it would not give up sovereignty. When the Americans and Europeans bypassed the Russians, Russian credibility, as low as it was, plummeted even more.

In a sense, Kosovo broke the back of Yeltsin's strategy. The Russians perceived the motherland as a poor but powerful country, one that not only had become poorer, but also was treated with contempt by the United States. Russian nationalists -- even of the mildest sort -- recoiled at what they saw as the American double-cross. Many issues sank Yeltsin, but Kosovo was critical. One of Putin's missions, then, has been to rebuild Russia's international standing.

Eight years after the war, KFOR continues to occupy Kosovo, though Europe and the United States are trying to bring the conflict to a conclusion by granting Kosovo independence. Their argument is that Kosovo, whatever its historical significance to Serbs, now has a majority of Albanians. In addition, the Albanians had been mistreated by the Serbs, so they cannot be returned to Serb control. Therefore, the only reasonable thing is for Kosovo to be granted independence.

The Serbs are intensely opposed to losing a province permanently. For the Russians, there are a number of issues. First, Putin wants to demonstrate to Europe and the United States that they cannot simply ignore understandings reached with Russia. The Russian opposition to Kosovo's independence was made clear eight years ago -- and it remains clear now. Second, the Russians want to demonstrate that alliance with them has meaning as they attempt to expand their sphere of influence. Until now, their successes have been confined to the former Soviet Union. They want a showdown over the interests of a Balkan ally simply to demonstrate their loyalty and effectiveness -- as well as the limits of American and European power. Finally, they want to expand their influence in the Balkans, an area of historical interest to the Russians.

On June 24, Putin attended an energy conference of southeast European leaders. While there, he made it clear that Russia is prepared to expand capital investment in power networks and pipelines in the Balkans. He also supported the creation of an "energy ring" in the Black Sea region that might serve to define the parameters of a common European power grid. That was the carrot. The stick was a warning that the Russians will not accept an independent Kosovo.

Europe just wants Kosovo off its plate. It is uneasy about extending the Muslim reach in the Balkans and it is concerned about the principle of changing borders based on ethnic makeup. In Europe, Spain's Basque region has had a separatist movement for years, while there are predominantly Hungarian regions in both Slovakia and Romania. The Russians, however, are most uneasy about the principle because if Kosovo is given independence, why not Chechnya?

The Europeans and Americans want to wrap up the Kosovo issue as soon as possible. For Bush, who has been portrayed as rabidly anti-Islamic, having a pro-Muslim policy somewhere in the world has obvious benefit. Albania, as demonstrated by Bush's recent visit, is the one place where he can gather sympathetic Muslim crowds -- and he is not about to give it up. As for the Europeans, they want to let go of the tar baby and move on.

By visiting Albania, therefore, Bush has signaled Putin that he is committed to Kosovar independence. The point the Bush administration is missing, however, is that rather than being deterred by Bush's show of commitment, Putin sees it as an opportunity to embarrass Bush and assert Russian power. The fact that Bush has publicly committed himself on Kosovo makes it sweeter for Putin. He wants to force Bush to back down on an issue on which the American president has staked himself publicly. That serves Putin's interests much more than winning on a marginal issue.

Putin has a number of options.

Diplomatically, he can veto any resolutions presented to the Security Council. There is diplomatic talk that, absent a new resolution on Kosovo, Kosovar independence would take place under EU supervision. Russia could not veto that, of course, but Russia does have the natural gas transmission card to play. Germany and other EU members are heavily dependent on Russian natural gas, and Russia has cut those supplies for short periods of time in the past. There is no reason to think Moscow would not do it again. The European Union knows this -- and is becoming fractured by it.

In fact, we believe the Russians would cut supplies if provoked. Kosovo really is that big of an issue to them. If they gave in on this, all of Putin's efforts to re-establish Russia as a great power would be undermined. Putin wants to remind Germany in particular -- but also other former Soviet satellites -- that thwarting Russia carries a price. If the European Union were to unilaterally act against Russian wishes, Putin would have to choose between appearing as if he is all talk and no action, and acting. Putin would choose the latter.

Putin also has a military option. Contrary to popular belief, the Russians retain increasingly effective military units. Five years ago, the idea that Russia's military was a joke wasn't nearly as true as many wanted to believe. It certainly is not true now. The old Red Army is dysfunctional, but the Russian military retains an excellent core, particularly in its airborne regiments. The Russians could fly a regiment of troops to Belgrade, use Serbian trucks to move to the Kosovar frontier and threaten to move into Kosovo to take their place in KFOR.

To do this, they would have to fly through Romanian or Hungarian airspace. They might be denied overflight privileges, but 1), the Russians might not ask permission and 2), would the Romanians or Hungarians try to shoot down Russian transports? They have no appetite for that kind of confrontation. Assume, then, that the troops reached the Kosovo border and crossed over. Would KFOR troops open fire on them? It is doubtful that the Europeans want a shooting war with the Russians.

Challenging Kosovo's independence militarily also would allow Russia to call NATO defense capabilities into question, which could leave the Europeans even more fractured. Do not assume that the Russians would not dare try such a move. Our view is that the Russians are itching for an opportunity to confront the West -- and win. In the case of Kosovo, should they choose to make an issue of it, they have the diplomatic, economic and military options to force the West to back down. Condoleezza Rice has said that Kosovo will never be returned to Serbian rule. Putin would love to demonstrate that it doesn't matter what the U.S. secretary of state wants.

This is going to be a key issue at the Bush-Putin summit. Although he wants this matter settled, it appears Bush will try to find a formula for putting it off, such as setting up a negotiating structure between Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo that could go on for years. Putin could probably live with that, as long as Russia is given a dominant role in those negotiations and as long as the decision is seen as a public concession to Putin.

This is an asymmetric situation. Bush does not really care about Kosovo or Serbia. The Europeans would not give up a day of natural gas supplies over Albanian rights in Kosovo. Russia itself doesn't care much about Kosovo. But it does care about reasserting its international power. The Kosovo issue gives Putin the perfect launchpad to start rolling back the West and reasserting his own power.

If Putin can win on this issue, a range of comfortable assumptions by Central and Eastern Europeans about Russia's limits, as well as German and French assumptions about the future of Europe, will be reversed. Putin intends to be taken seriously in international affairs and Kosovo is the issue he will stand on. It is not clear whether the United States or Europe understands just how serious Putin is on Kosovo.
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