What SHTF scenarios do you anticipate?

[Zarah]

I'm not trying to be rude -- I'm genuinely curious, and trying to understand things better.

There are a lot of threads on this forum about how to prepare, but nobody's saying much about what situation/s they're preparing for. Obviously, part of that has to do with the fact that a lot of the same preparations would be useful for a variety of different events. But still, there have to be specific scenarios that you're anticipating: natural disasters that are common to your area, local terrorist or military targets, specific economic issues, etc.

So tell me, what scenarios do you anticipate that would require the kind of survivalist preparations you're currently making?

Are you more worried about natural disasters (and the poor management that often follows) or human-initiated disasters?

Do you think it's only a matter of time before you'll have to bug-out or bug-in, or do you make these preparations with the idea that you'll probably never have to use them?

[kyhillbilly]

well me for one i try to be prepared for as much things as i can. be it that we lose electric for an extended peroid, or a bad winter storm, or a tornado or bigger stuff like civil unrest, revolution or an invading force. i dont spend all my time dwelling on it but i would like to be prepared if it would happen. having extra supplies on hand and a whole lot of knowdlege cant hurt anything.
n.

[monkeyman]

I dont have one particular thing I expect to happen and prepare for, I just figure from past experience that I dont want to bet that life will always be all roses and no thorns. I basicly just try to be able to be prepaied as best as I can to meet all the basic needs for me and my family independently. So food, water, shelter, clothing, security would be the basic needs.

I figure among the very most likely reasons I wouldneed to rely on my preps would be mundane things (and thats what I try to prep for first) like power outages or on a longer term injury or loss of income. I figure that if Im prepared for living with no income beyond maybe enouph to pay property taxes then the only other thing that really needs to increase for a total colapse of society would be more imphasis on security.

A short list of some of the reasons I could see needing preps in no particular order; wild fire, tanker truck chemical spill, attack on military base 20-30 miles away, bird flu, disabled, unemployed, economic colapse, civil unrest, colapse of society due to finance/war/other reasons, and what ever other you could think of. Some of these I figure are more likely than others but dont see any of them as totaly beyond the relm of possibility and make sure to be ready to bug in or bug out as the situation mandates, like if a tanker full of clorine dumped over 100 yards from our drive on the state hiway we could grab out BOB and go to relatives for a few days, if unemployed or economy makes the great depression look like the good old days then can bug in. Im not so much paniced about it and expecting anything in particular as wanting to be sure Im ready for as many curves life can toss me as I can be.

[Rama_das]

i prepare for the what if's.
what if i lose my job,
what if i can't run to the store to buy food, water, or other essentials for a week, a month, and in a few cases a year or more.
what if bird flu.
what if flood, ice storm, power outage etc.
what if i need to leave my house, my city etc.
what if's are all around.

i'm short in some areas, no garden, no wood stove, no generator yet. i'm still working on other less important things too. but doing this and that i'm getting a lot closer.

[Rama_das]

i was thinking, without buying all these preparation supplies, i'd have a pretty penny in the bank. so saving money is another way to prepare, and most of us that can, do put a little aside. (when we can. . .) but just having money in the bank means you might not be able to get it out, or use it at the debit machine, or if something happens and prices go up, and you can't afford 2 weeks worth of food you've got nothing. . . food stock is just a different type of bank account.

[Ozarks_1]

I try to prepare for as many different scenarios as possible. It's sort of a "family tradition" with me ... one great grand-dad lost a fortune and 'the farm' during the War of Northern Aggression. Grand-dad lost a house to the Depression of the 1930s. On the other side of the family, my grandparents just barely got out of Russia during the October Revolution of 1917 when the communists grabbed power.

[Zarah]

Thanks for all the answers (and keep them coming!). I now have another question: what do you think is the single most important thing you can do or have done to be prepared for an emergency situation? Food, water, weaponry, education -- what's your top priority, and why?

[eeyore]

The first and foremost thing to do is to get out of debt. The more money you have coming in that is not going out to pay off credit cards, the more you have to spend on you or to put into tangible items that as the inflation increases you are actually saving money.
If you buy 500.00 worth of food now (and make sure it is the kind of food you eat everyday or things that you use everyday. As you use them (and replace them) you are saving money. All the prices go up, so buy the stuff on sale and use it and replace it you will always have the food and you will be eating it at last years prices.

The other things are important also, but in moderation, it due you little good if you have the best in one area and zero in another. Keep good tract of where you are and it will help you not to make double purchases and waste your money.

As to your earlier question, i believe that a monetary collapse is the most likely. Either hyper-inflation or a depression. The people of our Country are not the same caliber (in character) as past generations, so if either of these things comes to pass, you will want to have well rounded program.

[StephiLou]

I didn't know where to post this, but now....

Yesterday on the news, the local yocals all got together (mostly the mayors of all the towns around) to crow about how much they have stepped up their disaster prep and response plans since 9/11.

I was happy to see that they ALL actually admitted on T.V. that it would be a good idea for everyone to have at least a 2 week supply of food, water, and meds on hand for any disasters.

They said if a large disaster hit this area (I don't know what that would be short of the New Madris Fault Earthqake), they might not be able to get to everybody for a couple of weeks. (Hints of CYA Katrina style?)

While 2 weeks would be a little short-sighted, but better than nothing.

I think it depends on what area of the country you live in and what kinds of things are around you (i.e. rivers, armed forces bases, national monuments). I don't know that I would neccessarily spend the most time preparing for a hurricane living close to the White House. While hurricanes have hit that area, those people are probably in more danger of being affected by some sort of terrorist something.

Steph

[longshot]

the biggest thing that i anticipate is an extended power outage from a winter storm, so i will need heat- kero heater and lights- propane lantern and kero lamps flash lights etc. cooking- propane camp stove. and a couple weeks of grub that is easy to prepare and stores well, still working on that one.

as for the other things civil unrest terrorists etc. i cant stop them but i am preparing as i can. i have a couple of long guns and am taking steps to get some more, i plan on the garden for next summer, and we are doing some canning this fall.


ls

[Morning_Owl]

To me the most important tool is knowledge. I keep back up food, water, guns, ammo, stay out of dept / one credit card with a $150.00 limit. But if I have to bug out or if a dessaster hits and all the sudden I find myself unindated with "friends" that need help my supply will deminish fast. So I stock up on books, and printed articles I find on line. What plants are edible in my area at what time of year, building shelter, how to deal with (feed, shelter, cloth) large groups of people, how to organize a hunt, how to store the meat with out refridgeration, natural health remadies, basically what to do if you don't have????????????? I have found soooo much info on BWH and have printed most of it. I print it so I always have it if there are no computers. Knowledge is some thing no one can take from you. For good reading on survival in it's barest form the author Tom Brown is awsome ;D

[leera]

I agree with the knowledge and the debt part.

We are taking the time during paying off our stupid mistakes to learn as much as we can about the lifestyle we want to live.

15 months to credit cards paid in full and counting!

What we have learned:

Basic gardening skills
the general idea of composting
basic building skills
food preservation skills

and a whole lot more!

[sma]

it could be anything, really, from severe weather to a terrorist attack to an economic depression.

severe weather conditions is the one thing that most people will nod their head and accept as something to anticipate and prepare for. i don't know about y'all, but anytime the weatherman says we're gonna have snow people flock to the stores and buy out all the bread and milk. but as we saw with katrina, things can go from bad to worse and we can be left with the clothes on our backs if we have to run or our homes are destroyed. so it makes sense to, at the very least, have a 72 hour bag for each member of your family.

if 9/11 were to teach us anything, it should have taught us that America is NOT invulnerable to attack. we tend to think that this sort of stuff happens to other people and not to us. We are a hated country. The Muslims call us "little satan" for crying out loud! We will be attacked again in one way or another. you don't have to live in a major city or near a nuclear plant to be worried. there are more ways to wreak havoc then a bomb or hijacked plane. we can't let our guard down or depend on the gov't to protect us. we need to prepare as best we can.

i think that we will have another economic depression. it is definately a good thing to be debt free and to have sound financial planning, but we mustn't fully depend on that. the dollar isn't worth much anymore. there may be a time when it bottoms out and all our investments are worth nothing. i hope not, but it really could happen. having the skills to get by and survive will come in very handy, especially when there are no jobs to be had and you have a family to feed.

and with any major catastrophe, be it natural or man-made, those who aren't prepared will do what they need to survive. we've seen plenty of evidence of the "mob mentality" in times of crisis. people shooting each other and looting stores, fighting over supplies. that's why you should be able to protect yourself. and don't think that the gov't won't come in and try to take it all away from you either.

but aside from major catastrophes there are the everyday problems. you lose your job or your spouse (or child) gets seriously ill. most Americans are just one paycheck away from being homeless. it makes good sense to be frugal and prepared. and survival skills are good things to have.

i can't say what is the most important one to learn...they all have their importance. we need to get out of debt and be frugal with our money. we need to know how to grow and store our own food. we need to know how to keep warm and safe during dire situations. we must prepare for the worst and hope for the best. :)

[monkeyman]

*My gut reaction would be to say that education would be the most important since you can learn to survive off of the land with nothing but the knowledge....but that would be a bare bones survival.

*In truth I would have to say the question of whats the most important would be like asking, 'whats most important for building a house hammer and saw, nails, lumber or knowledge?' *If you dont know how to do it then all the rest is useless but at the same time even if you know how to do it, if you dont have the materials and tools and such then you still dont have a house.

*If you have the knowledge you may be able to come up with what you have to have to stay alive but to continue to live you need some stored food and ways to replenish it, weapons to protect your family and supplies as well as to hunt meat. *

*I would say that the 3 way tie on the most important would be food, weapons and knowledge. *If you have the knowledge shelter and clothing arent that hard to come up with, if you have food then even what you can carry with you will at least give you a bit of time to start collecting natural foods and firearms will protect you from those who want to steal what you have and or just kill you or your family just because you happen to be there.

None of this has to cost a fortune either. You can get a couple weeks of emergency food for a family of 3 or 4 from your favorite bargin grocery store for $50 or so if you go with lots of Ramen noodles, oat meal, rice, beans, caned vegies and such. Firearms can be as basic as going to Walmart and picking up a single shot shotgun for around $80 though IMO a pump for around $200 goes a lot further to fill this need especialy if its all you have. As far as the education a lot of that can be had from getting the info on line then going outside and makeing sure it works before you have to rely on it or getting some good books. The BEST books I know of would be 'Naked into the Wilderness' both I and II by John and Geri McPhearson. The military sends the instructors from the special forces survival school to the authors of these books a couple times a year to learn survival skills from them so they can teach our special forces how to survive with nothing like if they escape after being held as a POW and their books will teach you how to make all your tools, shelter, clothes, food and so on from nature if you need to or if you just use these things to suplement includeing how to build and use traps from all natural materials that are easy to make and use and do work well.

[edward_4576]

I try to incorporate my planning in such a way that I cover as many scenarios as possible. I have two sets of preparations and they follow along the lines of survival and living. Bugging out is a survival situation that would only occur under the most hazardous situations and those being something along the lines of a chemical spill or a mob of unstoppable mutant zombies. Everything else is to make sure that I can live and live well. My family’s preparations are such that it gives us piece of mind. Sure it would be nice to hit the lotto and retire to the country on a gazillion acre farm but like everyone here I have to live in the real world. I could lose my job tomorrow but with our preparations I can sit on my can for a month at least before I have to go out and pound pavement. If there is a major weather event I’m covered even if I loose everything because of insurance, everything else I’ve prepared for or don’t have to worry about (I’m at 950 ft above sea level). I’ve cut back the limbs over the house etc.

Economically I stash cash everywhere I can. I stock food so we can eat in case we get snowed in or there’s an epidemic that would caused me to quarantine my family. I check the batteries in the smoke detectors and I have fire extinguishers located strategically. My doors all have dead bolts and methods of verifying who’s out side and I have firearms here and there just incase someone wants to invite themselves in. The wife is the neighborhood watch and lets me know what goes on and I call the cops if we get people moving in to the area that are less than desirable (don’t be cookin in my neighborhood).

I use the internet to check up on predators in our county and know who they are. I print out and stuff their pictures in my neighbor’s mailbox along with those little brochures that FEMA has for emergency preparations. The wife and I know first aid and CPR and we have a nicely stocked first aid kit. We keep up with current events and we vote, our representatives know who we are and what we expect of them. We are members of different groups such as MOM’s.

And in case I have forgotten something I say my prayers….

[lost1]

I believe Monkeyman and the others have got it covered. Spend a little time just thinking about your area and what would happen if the electricty was off for say, a month. Think about how you would react and just as serious, how others around you would react.
How about the middle of winter? Summer?.
Get together with a friend you know well and discuss it, you'll be very surprised.. :o

[scottie12]

well, now that I think about it there probably are several SHTF scenarios , that I might start preparing for , lets see .....
#1 -Is probably , rapture fallout , cuz im thinking that when all those ppl disappear and leave all their stuff ie.
cars , fishing boats , mcmansions , guns , lotsa guns,nascar memorabilia , etc.
There is gonna be a lotta ppl having a free-for-all- mad -murderous rush to lay claim and take hold of the spoils ,
but I'm thinking that shortly after jesus gets a good look at what he's got on his hands , he's gonna ship'em back and their gonna want their stuff back . (I dont think theres a legal precedence for this ) so the courts are gonna wash there hands of it , there'll be trillions of homeless , pennyless ,pissed-off white ppl , rushing the country-sides looking for places to squat and squander. Hopefully jesus will have some mercy on the rest of us and just send them all to a new heavenly planet , like , say , jupiter , instead .
I'm just kiddin , I really do like the rapture-watchers?

#2 would be uhh, ohh yea , terrorrerrerrorism. cuz ...
EVEN THOUGH the entire muslim world
would gladly kill any muslim who would be STUPID enough to attack america and unleash that unquenchable wrath upon them all , and EVEN THOUGH we rarely , rarely ,actually convict any of the suspected terrorreerroorrrists for lack of evidence , I do believe that EVEN THOUGH they are not and havent done any terrorrerrorerrism for 5 long years , that this is only becuz our president is keeping us safe , and also the teroorrerrorrist are just maybe having an artistic-like imagination block and cant figure out where the targets are . But they are evil and I think they are patient too, They may even wait until after they are dead but I'll be watching out for them terrorerrorrerorists.
Always ON ALERT!

#3 would be uhh-hmmm-ohhh - Global freezing - cuz , If those liberals say warmin is a comin , i'm gonna dig me a deep tunnel sides a volcanic vent and batten down the hatches , I'M gettin out my winter coats . gonna stockpile farwood n whiskey and nascar videos and aint coming out till jesus comes .

#4--- Stock market crash( see www.lookingglassnew.org RE;plunge protection team.

#5--- Govt iniated avian flu pandemic (see PNAC, RE; "genetically specific biological weapons have now become a useful political tool"
also see-www.takingaim.info

#6--Economic crash due to a revolution in say china , cuz if a non-compliant Non-american-butt-kissing regime were to assume power ,and then decide not to loan us back some $$$$$ , The permanent tax cuts for the billionaires would have to go , so they would all take their money and move to Europe and we would officially become a third world nation overnight .

#7- NuKULAR war - Cuz if ol DICK can get drunk and shoot his hunting buddy in the face just fer fun ...........

#8----A nation-wide electrical blackout in the coldest part of winter, cuz our govt might just decide to thin the herd of the week and feeble useless-eaters . (gotta make room for the cheap labor.)

#9----Another republican administration

#10 ----Another democratic administration

#11---A constitutionalist/ reconstructionist / Libertarian mis-administration.

# 12---Failure to elect green ppl.

[jim]

One good thing about a serious SHTF senario is that if it's bad enough a goodly number of sheeple will no longer be a problem. Deepen the gene pool so to speak.

jim

[Archangel]

Lets just talk about what has happened the last few yers.

1. I was flooded and I live on the edge of a desert.

2. 100+ in Washington State, lost of electric in Calf., and wild fires in the west.

3. Ice Stroms in ALA, and Icew caused power outages in Carolinas.

4. Hurricanes flooded a major US city, NO; people could not leave another, Houston.

5. They stopped bomber in several US cities.

I'm sure I've missed a few thoughts; stay healthy, mind clear, and good luck. Michael ::) :o ::)

[Terri]

What kinds of disasters do I stock up for?

Well, it is a fine thing to have canned goods if unemployment is a problem (3 times), or candles if the power goes out for more than a day (a couple of times), or if money gets tight again (I cannot count that high).

Besides, it has saved us a fair amount of money. If I only buy our staples when they are on sale and store them, then I don't have to buy staples unless they ARE on sale! I once figured that the entire grocery bill had dropped by $15 a week, and there had been NO change in our diet. And, there ARE ways I could spend $780 a year!

[mangyhyena]

IMHO, an economic collapse is the most likely scenario. We may be attacked soon, face huge natural disasters, have war waged upon us using nukes, ect....

One thing I believe any of these other scenarios can lead to is a depression in this country. Even without these other things hitting us, there is an out and out attack on the middle class that may well lead to only two classes of folks in this country; the wealthy and the poor.

A few years ago I stocked up on plenty of food to see my family through a few months; Ramon noodles, rice, beans, extra canned goods, ect... I tackled this a little at a time during each trip to the grocery store. It took about 3 months before I felt like we were getting anywhere, but we got there.

Getting out of debt was my first priority in terms of big steps. This November (NEXT MONTH!!!!!!!!) I will make my very last payment on the last credit card. I will have only my mortgage left.

My next priority is to take all the money I used to pay to other folks for things like car and credit card payments and to stick that in the bank. 3 years from now at the latest we should be able to move to a piece of property out in the middle of nowhere. Self sufficiency is the main focus once there. We're looking into alternative energy options, gardening, raising small livestock, greenhouse---anything to help us live well if hard times hit.

Now that the debt is almost all gone I'll begin purchasing other supplies for protection, more food, more water storage, more camping equipment, and hopefully an RV trailer in case of a need to bug out. But these things will be acquired slowly over the next 3 years or longer. Building up to purchase my next home outright is most important right now.

Each and every category is important. No one should be focused upon exclusively, IMHO. Round out as you're able and you'll eventually have a well rounded survival plan.

God bless.

[jpollock30]

Hmm, SHTF scenarios...

I see a number of possibilities.

1. Our nation continues to slide into a police state situation, with the increasing loss of rights and increased monitoring of the populace (ie: China) Actually I think this is a given. As such, its best to increase self sufficiency knowledge/ have surplus fuel, surplus food, etc. etc.

2. I forsee a strong possibility of economic collapse. There is actually one newscaster on TV I have a lot of respect for, Lou Dobbs on CNN. There is a growing increase in pressure and attack on the middle class. I grant that the typical American is doing a lot of stupid things and bringing alot of problems on themselves (no principal /interest only mortgages .... tons and tons of credit card debt) but there are a lot of other factors as well. Our balance of trade is all out of wack now... our companies outsource almost all production and labor overseas to 3rd world nations, and now even computer technology and tech support is over the phone in places like India and Pakistan! Lou Dobbs has pointed out the shortsightedness of this... but companies dont care

3. My biggest concern of all is perhaps a mixture of 1 and 2... .and the resulting effect on the American People. I have little to no respect of the American Populace ... they sit around watching TV all day, no one reads, very few know how to do things for themselves, and even those with potential are stuck on little lots in town with no real land to speak of (as in my current own situation). I think that having a place to go is WAAAYYY up there for a SHTF scenario. Even better is if your situated in an out of the way place... as for weaponry, weaponry is very good to have, and I have my share... but I am starting to realize that it would be better to have 5 out of the way acres with a single shot shotgun and a semi auto 10/22 then to have far more firepower and be in a town or city. Thats because you are only going to be able to realistically defend yourself/your property/etc from so many desperate frantic neighbors...or the gestapo for that matter.

If things were to happen tomorrow, Id have to take my chances as a scavenger along with a good portion of the population and perhaps try to set up a little encampment out in the woods on public lands. It all depends how bad a situation gets. If a situation gets really bad....worst case scenario type deal then the rules entirely change you see. In some ways I'd be better off in a worst case scenario then in a mediocre major economic depression scenario.

So.....stored food, weaponry, shortwave radio, cheapie cb radio, knowledge of how to set up a dipole antenna, knowledge of canning and growing foods, and a basic dehydrator and enough experimentation to know how to use it....

in a word, yess....yes....yes...and YES.... but even more so:

A plan on what to do and a place to go even if you have limited resources.

AN ABSOLUTE MUST!

[edward_4576]

I know we all try to prepare for all types of problems. Here's one that's real and it happens today. As the article states it will be like Y2K, will it or won't it but being aware of the situation is what this post is about:

http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/12/13/solar.storm/index.html

[edward_4576]

Hmmmm, *Is it getting closer?

http://www.thebulletin.org/export/bulletin_pics/weeklyhighlight.gif

http://www.thebulletin.org/

8)

http://www.cnn.com/2007/TECH/space/01/18/china.missile/index.html

[docjered]

Interesting thread; one worth coming back and revisiting. I work at Home Depot in St. Louis. In the past year, we have had three storms which took out power for a million or more homes from three days to three weeks, for some areas. Ameren Union Electric says to get used to it and prepare for lesser events to cause power loss for longer periods. It seems that their infrastructure is simply aging to the point of becoming unreliable, and it would cost billions to replace it; which wont happen in the foreseeable future.

At Depot, we have seen a subtle but serious shift in buying habits. For example, we are selling whole house generators, people are installing fireplaces, beefing up their insulation, buying spare propane tanks, stockpiling batteries and flashlights, and buying compact flourescent bulbs to systematically replace their home lighting. All of these trends are underswells and subtle, but studying the metrics shows that the shift in purchasing is marked and long term.

[candy]

Zarah

Good thread, I like all the answers on here.

Scottie 12 I loved your post. Thats the way to do it, prepare but keep your sense of humor man!


jpollock30

I agree we are well on our way in the decent into a police state. The states are saying they will not go for this real ID and the feds are saying well you best keep your citizens in your state then , cause they won't be valid anywhere else!

The feds and this administration are determined to get their way.

I see a looming economic collapse coming our way. Other countries have our fate in their hands economically! How crazy is that?

But hey there is a upside to everything. if the world continues long after the US crashes a return to a simpler kind of life would be a very good thing for everybody.

We'd have time to stop and smell the roses.

But when it happens watch out. Nobody will be smelling roses for a few years. Its going to be bad.

[calliel]

Tornado leaving us without electricity for an extended period of time.

DH's losing his job.

Drastic food/gas price increases in the country

Car not starting. Tire blowing.

Getting mugged.

Medical epidemic so we have to stay home for a month without running to the store to share germs.

Economic collapse of the country.

Enemy invasion. Nuclear fallout.

Civil war.

Kids/parents moving in (Or just needing financial/medical help)

Death/disability of spouse.

[Txanne]

This country imploding in on its self!!

Martial law being declared.

And a blood bath to end all.


Txanne

[edward_4576]

Well folks, it seems as if I get to test all my plan that I have made.

Today (Thursday) the city that I live in has a problem with the water supply. Recent flooding has caused bacterial contamination of our water supply. For the last two days we have been under a boil order. Luckily, I have stored water to last us for several weeks.

Secondly, my employer (who shall remain nameless) outsourced my job and the new company decided that I was not a desirable (baaahahh) employee. So I find my self seeking other means of income. Luckily my wife and I (mainly my wife ;) ) has saved enough so that we can live for six months before TSHTF.

Finally, my old PC bit the dust and with Oliver's help I was able to get back into the forums.

My DW has been catching herself when ever she says:

What else can go wrong?

S--T Murphy was an optimist.....

;D

[edward_4576]

Well now in to the second week, I've applied for several positions both temp and permanent. DW is getting antsy but I keep reminding her of our buffer.

The only thing wrong now is that the dog has started limping and we can't find a reason why....

Oh well at least I can get some chores done around the house....

P.S. and I don't have to drive the 22 miles back and forth to work, I'm saving money...

8)

[Txanne]

I DID NOT anticipate losing a home that was paid for on my 65th BDAY!![[btw--none of my doing]]

Losing all I had put into her---being virutally being homeless.

What if you DONT have a place to live?

Having all the things in place to survive on---and no place for them.

I am still working on the place--starting over----now thats SHTF

Txanne

[edward_4576]

Perhaps it's my current state of uncertainty which is heightening my sense of impending doom. But does it seem to you folks that something is on the horizon?

With the rise in the price of food, fuel, medical issues and such coupled with the problems with the housing market and food source contamination. I sense (and so does DW) that something has to give soon.

New legislation may soon add 12 million "new" citizens to this country that may or may not be productive. Increases in crime and terrorism continue to increase. War is on almost every horizon and the conflicts between differing races and religions seem to be on the incline.

Forest and wild fires are burning in many areas of the nation and natural disasters are almost the word of the day. Flooding, killer tornadoes and man made disasters are on the rise.

My wife always reminds me to be careful when I leave the house. "Watch your back" she says, I always try to keep aware of my surroundings. Is my foil hat slipping or does it seem that some type of "change" is immanent?

[Txanne]

Edward----I get that whistleing in the dark feeling also!!

A heightened awareness.


BTW----watch your back!!

Tx anne

[333]

Peace,

Come gather round people where ever you roam,

and admit that waters around you have grown,

oh you better start swimmin or you'll sink like a stone.......

For the times they are a changing.

;D

333

[edward_4576]

However 333 remember...

"You can get anything you want at Alice's restaurant (excepting Alice)....

;D

[wax]

Forgetting the "normal" "abnormality" like short term emergencies one needs to research in order to truly understand SHTF.

I haven't adjusted my fathers numbers for a long time (he died in 91' after nearly thirty years of extreme survivalism).

First, it depends on where you live and what your resources are.
If you live in Southern Minnesota like I do things look fairly good... if you live in Seattle Washington run... just run until your legs snap and then crawl for as long as you possibly can!
I'm kidding of course, sort of.

You see it all depends on known threats.
Known threats are a given and we all face them, global warming, cooling, nuclear war, invasion, etc, they are all known threats.
An unknown threat would be something like God deciding that it was time to tell the truth about things... or some young alien waking up and thus... the dream that we actually are, coming to a sudden end.

So once we understand the difference we break it down into short term or long term:

Super volcano (or simply volcano depending on where you live)
Long term 100%
Short term 5%

Some day, every place on Earth will be affected by a volcano. But unless you live in Seattle (which is long overdue) you can't worry too much about it.

Flooding:
Long Term: 100%
Short term : 50%
This one's pretty easy, if you live next to a river that floods... well... and of course if you are lower than any body of water... well...
But the thing is that most people do not realize the risk concerning flood. It happens, quite often.
Seattle will someday by hit again with a one thousand foot tidal wave, we know that because it has happened before and thus, will again.

Meteor strike:
Long term: 100%
Short term: less than 1% (but we are overdue)

The last "big one" was 65 million years ago and we can expect one every 100 million years or so.
We are coming close statistically but then we are dealing with millions of years.
However... we can expect a localized strike every one hundred years or so and the last one was in 1908 in Tunkuska (look it up, it is really cool).
Seattle of course is still screwed because any strike is likely to be in the ocean, thus causing a tidal wave. Seattle exists in a bowl and has a fifty/fifty chance of being destroyed by any ocean strike.

Economic collapse;
Long term: 100%
Short term: 50/50

The problem of course is that a dollar is worth a dollar because "we" say it is!
If the American dollar were still worth a certain amount of gold things would look better but it is not.

Which brings us to the real point.

China has no choice but to go to war in the next decade or two. It has 40 million extra men between the ages of 15 and 28 because of the "one child" policy implimented in 1979.
There is only one mechanism that can be used to negate the affects of such a thing.
War in our lifetime comes to about 90%.
Not a cute war like VietNam or Iraq in which most do not sacrifice but "real" war in which one can not avoid violence even if one tries.

China has already explained what it intends to do...

[edward_4576]

There will be wars and rumors of wars....

Pestilence and disease will roam the land....

However last night the wife was watching the news channels and one talking head was discussing the possibility of gas hitting $10 a gallon and the possible collapse of the world bank.

There has been a great deal of attention about "the war on the middle class" in the US and the plight of those considerd low income. However if the US is one of the largest consumer groups on the planet and it hits the majority of the consuming public think of the effect it will have on the rest of the world?

[TNDadx4]

There will be wars and rumors of wars....

Pestilence and disease will roam the land....

However last night the wife was watching the news channels and one talking head was discussing the possibility of gas hitting $10 a gallon and the possible collapse of the world bank.

There has been a great deal of attention about "the war on the middle class" in the US and the plight of those considerd low income. However if the US is one of the largest consumer groups on the planet and it hits the majority of the consuming public think of the effect it will have on the rest of the world?

You're absolutely right. Anything that affects the US is going to have some sort of ripple affect in any conventional country.

I often wish that we, as a country, paid more attention to things like this and in preparedness in general.

[333]

However 333 remember...

"You can get anything you want at Alice's restaurant (excepting Alice)....


Peace,

"I cant tell a lie your honor I put that envelope under that pile of garbage."

Yea we like that one as well, but the all time is Buffalo Springfield "For what its worth."


333

[edward_4576]

Bob Barker has retired and Paris gets out on Monday....

Woe is me.....

[Weezin]

In our case, in Alaska, it's weather.
In the non-event of Y2K we got slammed. Hi way closures, long power outages, food stores striped of products.
Thank god I stocked up on food, fuel, a generator , etc....
We remained stocked and encourage our friends to do so.
Our shopping habits are case lots, not items in a cart. Dont buy anything unless its on sale and keep at least 6 months on hand. A year is better....

[Archangel]

I've been , but it nice to see some thinking people are still there. I'm strong in the believe in a 6 month supply of food on hand. Some way to heat and boil water. Being able to stay warm. Always keep the basics. Michael

[torenghout]

Which brings us to the real point.

China has no choice but to go to war in the next decade or two. It has 40 million extra men between the ages of 15 and 28 because of the "one child" policy implimented in 1979.
There is only one mechanism that can be used to negate the affects of such a thing.
War in our lifetime comes to about 90%.
Not a cute war like VietNam or Iraq in which most do not sacrifice but "real" war in which one can not avoid violence even if one tries.

China has already explained what it intends to do...

you forgot to mention that seattle was a major port for containerized chinese.

[torenghout]

IMHO it has already happened the slow decline is picking up speed, our county jail is full, the sherrif told us he had no place to put him [a guy yelling obscenities and telling an old man he was going to kill him], after several prominent citizens told the sherrif,"I don't care what you do with him just get him out of here" the sherrif grudgingly loaded him up and left.

crime is on the rise and the law won't do anything except prevent you from solving the problem.

[WileyCoyote]

1) Natural disasters. Because of the rapid response of media to every disaster, even pre-disaster, more and more disasters will strike home to more and more people. Firefighters leaving their own areas to fight massive wildfires burns them out more quickly. Not to mention the newly reinforced "gummint will save us!" mindset; where, when it inevitably doesn't, more looting, more murdering, more attempts at enforcement of gummint controls, curfews, and martial laws. More militarization of local precincts during the disasters and long past their actual duration.

2) More man-made disasters -
a)terrorism, and I'm not talking about Al Quaida or the Taliban, but more and more people performing home grown terrorism, from kids in schools to grownups in frustration. Road rage is now common as is people going postal for whatever reason. The loonies can't be locked up, the criminals are learning how to perform terrorist acts in prison and come out even more vicious than they went in. Gangs are exploding across the country, not just in cities but rural communities, each with its own territory and lawlessness. People who start out as petty criminals are taught by the criminal justice system to manipulate their outcomes or to free themselves by implicating others - and learn that they are not responsible for anything they do. Therefore their criminality will escalate.
b) responses to terrorism - nominally put in place to perteckt us from the evil arabs, they will be used with more enthusiasm than Janet Reno at Waco against civilians.

3) A Democratic majority/presidency or a continuation of the NeoCon supremacy - all of those Executive Orders and the Patriot Act, put in the hands of the Democrats or left in the hands of the NeoCons, will become big sticks to conquer and overrun individuals or groups who dare not to bow and scrape to their "We'll take your money and help others while you do without" mentality. We will become either unwilling fiscal servants to the State or their out-and-out dependents. Any resentment or refusal will be seen as an act of terrorism against the State, punishable by immediate military action. Guns will be confiscated, as will property, without legal recourse. If you are in a group or community, you will be terrorists or insurrectionists. If you are alone, you will be a loony with a compound. Your neighbors and friends will find it profitable to 'turn you in' for profit or to save their own necks from prosecution. The people whom you trust the most will be convinced of the ease of your demise and their profit thereby. Loyalty, integrity, honesty, and fair treatment will become pleasant memories of a long past time - or ways to convince you to turn yourself in or give yourself up.

Waco and Ruby Ridge were just practice. Who needs China to overrun us? We are killing ourselves.

[Archangel]

As I watch they floods, wildfires, and exspect the freezing ice storms for next year I've asking myself what would I grab if I had to make a run for it? Pictures, papers, guns, ammo, food, water, remember N.O. and what people had on/in their cars?
The question is what would you take?

Happy Trails, Michael

[Steve_L]

The biggest and closest threats are, as I see it:
Economic collapse, due to shipping most of America's jobs to China, and giving what jobs cannot be shipped to illegal aliens and legal aliens who got here by fraud.
Ms. Hillary Clinton is very likely to become our next president.. She is known to literally have kissed terrorists, and under her husband's administration, almost nothing was done to fight al Qaeda. Thus, i believe that Al Qaeda will grow stronger under her Presidency, and this will lead to a serious terrorist attack; probably involving nuclear weapons and nuclear blackmail (terrorist nuke 20 cities, hold back 20 nukes in cities to prevent our counter strike)

So, I see fallout and total economic collapse in 4 to 8 years in the future.

It may be time to leave the big cities and become independent, like Lot leaving Soddom. But where to go? Mountains, or desert?

[Sebastian_Haff]

The Amazing Kreskin see's the BHM forum literally melting down November 2008, when Senator Clinton is elected President. ;D

[chloe3388]

Presidents come and presidents go they in the grand scheme of things are no more important than a boil on a dog's butt.

Now do you have any input on self-reliance?

IMHO maybe the mods need to look into your obvious attempts at disruptions in threads that you post inane comments having nothing to do with the thread at hand.

[nancy1340]

The Amazing Kreskin see's the BHM forum literally melting down November 2008, when Senator Clinton is elected President. *;D


Sooooo Your saying you want BWH to meltdown?

Nice.


BTW, you ain't no Carson.

[edward_4576]

Democrats and republicans..... 8)

[Rama_das]

wow this thread is still kicking around.
started a year ago too. it's been a long time since i've been here.

a pandemic is the great thread the world has right now. there is little chance a terrorist attack is going to do the damage that a pandemic will.

it comes down to everyone in trouble, no outside help coming in, and this happening everywhere around the world.

SARS showed 50% of Toronto medical staff not showing up to work. for a pandemic flu they figure about 30% of people not showing up to work. could be from fear of getting sick, or from being sick. 30% few people working in hospitals, working the streets (police that is), truck drivers delivering food, bankers, mail carriers, people selling food/milk/eggs. . . oh wait, no eggs.

no one to sell gas, no one to fix roads, no one to fix the grid, etc etc. i'm sure it's not going to be worse case scenario, but it's going to be bad.

pandemics do happen, and we are due, this winter will make us the mark for the longest time we've gone without one. if you haven't kept up on the news, the stage is set.

get your ducks in a row. . .ummm not ducks lol and don't put your eggs all in one basket eeeeck, ok, my bad.


get some N95 mask. N100 would be better.
plan for long term isolation. this is going to be rough.

[Rancher]

Perhaps I am coming from a different perspective than many of us. However, here is my take.

I grew up in the Great Depression. My parents who owned a ranch in Oklahoma from 1921 to 1936 lost their ranch in the Depression and Dust Bowl.

I worked as a young Cowboy in the 1930's until 1949 when I enlished in the Army Air Corps. Then in 1954, on my discharge, I became a Rancher in Colorado.

As you can see, I have lived through good times and bad. None have been as tough as the Great Depression of 1929 to 1942. We have had some tough periods, such as the Johnson-Carter Years when inflation reached to the 20 percent and above, and a few others, but I have noticed that even those periods were shorter and less hurtful than the 1930's.

I have also noticed that since the 1930's, Americans have learned that when the economy tanks, it has always, with no exception, been the result of Democrat Party policies damaging the economy. The result is always a change in the next election and the economy always comes back, stronger than ever before when a change of control in Washington is elected. When trade is restricted, (as it was with the Smoot/Hawley Act in 1929) and as many today try to get again, along with increased Government taxes and spending, then the Economy is forced to retrench and overcome the handicap.

Fortunately, there are many who have learned the lessons of our history although unfortunately many still do not "get it".

In my view, the greatest dangers facing us today are; 1. Apathy toward protecting ourselves from terrorist attacks and feuding with the President and military who are so far, doing a fair job of containing terrorists.
2.The growth of the Socialist System, promoted by the formerly Democrat Party that is now the Socialist Party, as evidenced by pressure to raise taxes, and continued increases in government spending.

If we keep these things under control, we have a bright future. If we let either one, or both get out of hand, then "Katie bar the door".
Of the two, I am most concerned about the Socialism that seems to be growing more and more out of control.

[macgeoghagen]

I stay planned for a riot. the city where i live is overly dependent on government money flowing through ONE very large employer. 20k people work for this one employer, and 20k more work in service jobs that the employees go to. businesses are made or broken by whether or not this employer wants to do business with them, or warns their employees to stay away(in cases of illegal stuff happening). layoffs and transfers directly affect the local economy. the employer is growing faster than the town can support it, with thousands more people being moved in. the town utilities can't keep up, the law enforcement won't be able to keep up with the lowlifes that come to work the service jobs. the town is also on a major drug smuggling route, with local franchises of the bloods, crips, BGD, and MS15. theres a masonic lodge or 2. racism is a problem here, mostly the "black power" types. if a hurricane comes through and knocks out power for even a day, there will be a crime wave, as the lowlife service scum(burger flippers and pimps) rush to grab as many big TVs and fast cars as they can. The people who have guns will be OK, but those that don't will be beaten and/or killed by looters.

[theresehirko]

We prepare for hurricanes and tornados in our house all year long. Most people down here don't prepare in advance and only get ready when a hurricane is in the Gulf of Mexico. So when TSHTF, they all panic and go to the stores. We sit home, get everything tied down, get the cars filled with gas and every gas can we have filled. We also keep a stash of small bills in our house for emergencies because people down here don't seem to realize that ATMs don't work when there is no power.

[hillsidedigger]

There is one guaranteed 'SHTF, actually TEOTWAWKI', event that the world's people are rapidly moving toward.

In the absence of Divine intervention, within the expected lifetime of most of the world's current people

there will occur (even if major war is avoided)

'worldwide famine'

prompted by the loss of cheap energy and an uncooperative climate

both caused by a world population of people that has reached numbers that, depending on the investigating authority, are from 5 to 50 times the number of people this world was designed for or is capable of feeding for the longterm.

The famine event will not be temporary and will not be regional.

[swedishfish]

hi there, Im pretty new to this whole thing, but here is my 2 cents.

I think a lot of people scoff at SHTF type scenarios. I mean, I never really have been in one personally... but of course they are upon us everyday.

I started out trying to make list of all the horrible things that could happen to me and my family. I nearly threwup from the anxiety.

I re approached the SHTF idea from something more practical and considered what was the MOST likey tight spot I would be in. Since I am so dependent on my job, I settled on job loss or dramatic salary reduction. So I started preparing by paying off credit card debts, student loans, etc.

So SHTF prep no 1.) Get rid of debt. Chances are the SHTF will not happen equally to everyone. Someone always gets the short end of the stick by getting hit first.

Then I figured we needed a way to 'get by in lean times' which said to me... pantry and stock piles. Started with canned good in bulk, starting to stock up rice, medical stuffs, and household items.

So SHTF prep no 2.) Build a pantry. In lean times 10lbs of rice and a lb of hamburger will get a family further than I first thought.

Next I stopped consuming so much. It is hard to honest with yourself. I spend a lot of money on junk I dont need. It made me feel happy.. I thought. turns out I just like tinkering with junk. AND junk is free if you look for it. Free-cycle has allowed me to tinker with CD radios, old computers, appliances.. etc

SHFT prep no 3.) Learn local resources and know your home community Free cycle is a good way to do this. Tracking down little bits of junk are great, but in the process you find all sorts of local info and people.

So with those three steps in order and in maintenance mode... approaching a "small disaster" seems doable. Through some swapping I acquired a generator and a source for cheap fuel wood. I am saving up for a wood stove insert for the house. Even though I am in the urban area now...doesnt mean I cant be prepared. Now between the above 3 prep steps and the addition of a generator and wood stove.. i can handle winter ice storm situations, summer brown outs, and irregular foulups ( I was in the middle of the 3 day black out of 2003 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003).

So now I think Im on the right track.. I have some guns for home protection, I have a good buggin out vehicle and a plan to GetOutOfDodge.

That is perhaps the most imporant part of a more serious SHTF plan.. the plan to get out when the time is right. currently Im thinking of the folks in the path of the flooding in the midwest.

As for nuke war, crumbling economy, or giant SHTF situations. I cant deal with them that broadly... but maybe by being prepared for everything short of those... you become mentally prepared to handle whatever comes to pass.