How "real" is the threat, OR

[LeatherneckPA]

rather, how imminent do you believe it is?

Now, I'm not talking about the end of civilization as we know it. And I'm not talking about the end of the world.

I'm just talking about a crisis big enough to force the urbanites to start migrating out from the cities in search of life.

And how far away from a major metro do you believe you would have to be to be "relatively" safe? I've spent 23 yrs working max security prisons. I have little to no faith in the "good nature of man".

I live in north-central PA. I am virtually surrounded by major metros. But I think I might be relatively safe in the area of the junctions of Lycoming, Tioga, Potter, and Clinton counties. It's not a real densely populated area. If you look at a night shot of the USA it's that real dark area in the middle of PA.

That's the general area where DW and I are looking for our little piece of land. But boy the prices out in the northern plains/northern Rockies are sure inviting.

[Southern_Gent]

I suppose it would depend on how well hidden your property is, how far off of a main road and whether or not there are visible power lines to your residence. Also take into consideration urban sprawl. How likely is it that this area will be annexed into a large metropolis within the next 5,10, or ever 20 years.

[LeatherneckPA]

How likely is it that this area will be annexed into a large metropolis within the next 5,10, or ever 20 years.
AAlchemy can vouch for this, I doubt very much that annexing this area is even remotely possible within the next 50 years.

Now as for passers-thru and displaced urbanites, that's a different story. It is one of the major "hunting cabin get-away" locations in the state.

[Southern_Gent]

Now as for passers-thru and displaced urbanites, that's a different story. *It is one of the major "hunting cabin get-away" locations in the state.

In that case, you may very well see urbanites fleeing to your area in the event of a crisis. Especially those that have hunted there before, or are familiar with it by other means.

[jjspirko]

Honestly I think most folks have the navigation path backwards. I don't see folks leaving the cities for the sparsely populated country if we end up in a national emergency. People actually head to cities during such disasters. Such is the dependence of the obedient dog to the master. When city A is in trouble the residents do not go out in the country. No they head to city B.

Look at Hurricane Katrina. Did the refuse from New Orleans go to the cajuns in the swamps to take over their back 40? Hell no they went to Houston, San Antone, Austin and unfortunately for us to Dallas-Ft. Worth.

No matter how bad it gets some areas will be better off then others, the masses will then head to the cities that are in better shape and wait for and expect help from Uncle Sam. If no hope comes, most will lay down and die. Sad but history has show this to be the case in every major disaster. I am not saying there is no danger of "marauders" just it won't ever be the waves the tin foil hat folks seem to expect,

[AlchemyAcres]

It could happen in a heartbeat, the urbanites and those in the 'burbs are dependent without a doubt....the house of cards could come tumbling down at any time.
I'm not concerned about the general populace of the cities around here as much as I fear the fairly well to do flatlander with seasonal cabins, who are fairly well prepared (short term) , and the locals who are very capable, yet pourly prepared...meaning they have the ammo and the means.....yet have never planned for any long term crisis!

And, no, urban sprawl ain't a worry here, not for along time! LOL


~Martin :)

[WRTN]

Not sure what your area is like but this is something you SHOULD consider if you haven't already.

In the event of a major crisis/disaster in which electricity, food, water, and other resources are unavailable for an extended period of time; plan on the prison doors opening and floods of prisoners being freed or escaping. Is there a prison in your area or near it? Plan on the local law enforcement to be either nonexhistent or part of the problems.

The other BIG problem is the drug addicts. Methamphetamine has infested and taken over most rural areas to such an extent that it has become an underground economy.

Hopefully most of the drug addicts will eliminate each other but plan on some of the worst surviving and being on the loose looking for more drugs and or materials to trade for drugs. Be prepared for them. Hopefully if you keep a low profile they will find someone else to terrorize.

I think urbanites will be the least of your problems. Maybe some firewood, or food theft.

Your best first line of defense will be some VERY alert and protective dogs that make a LOT of racket if someone comes around or something out of routine is going on.

Also be aware that during "civil emergency" law enforcement/emergency personnel ARE empowered by law to confiscate supplies and property at their discretion. Take the appropriate measures.

Having prediscussed emergency circumstances with your neighbors and banding together to watch each others back would be prudent as well.

[edward_4576]

This topic has been tossed around quite a bit. I would point out that as far as drug addicts go, they will prey on each other, then drug stores, hospitals and clinics. Go to your local PD and ask what addicts are like after a few days with out junk. After the balloon goes up they will have a wild ride because no one will be there to stop them and when they run out well it won't be pretty.

As far as urban survival goes keep a few things in mind. Never let it be known what your preparations are. I anonymously slip preparedness folders in my neighbor’s mail boxes at least once a year, but when it comes to me I play dumb.

As for bugging out I can see it happening in waves, those that are smart and have a place to go will be the first wave, they’re the ones that can read the writing on the wall. The second wave will run when it starts to get ugly, no food, possible marauders etc. These folks will have the idea of going to other cities or they may have watched an episode of Les Strode and thing they can go to the local state park or some rural area and think to live off the land with a 38 special and a few days worth of MRE’s

The third wave will probably be the last of the marauders / MZB's they might be cannibalistic, definitely the worst of the worst. When this happens remember the three S's. Don't bother with cops. If you’re still in town your best bet is to hunker down. Remember the adage of hiding in plain sight, once your neighborhood is deserted use some spray paint to make it look like your house caught fire and board up the windows. Get some police tape and tie it to bushes, outline a few corpses, spill animal blood around, knock a few round holes in your siding to look like bullet holes and put a FEMA triangle besides the doors

If your going to hunker down make sure you can dispose of all your waste, does your place have strong doors? Do you have a place to hide? What about light is your home light tight? How about pets, they are great as deterrents but if you’re trying to remain out of sight Fife might just make too much noise. Just a few things to keep in mind.

[LeatherneckPA]

Being both an eternal optimist and a hopeless romantic, I like to believe that I can not forsee the fall of this fine country within my lifetime. *Of course, nobody foresaw the fall of the Iron Curtain in my lifetime either.

That said, I think I have to agree that I see a bigger threat from poorly prepared local townspeople than from major metros. *Where I live, they'd just have to travel too far to get to us. *And let's face it, like someone else said, most of them are too lazy or too stupid to put it together and go where they need to to go.

Another thought, along the same lines though, is just exactly how long could the people in the major metros hold out if the SHTF? *Major environmental disasters or power outages are a truly possible danger, even without "Day After Tomorrow" unreal scenarios. *But let's say the perfect wintor storm hit the mid-atlantic and socked it in REALLY good. *How long before city folk start dying for want of heat, water, or food? *What kind of reserves are in place in the cities? *I mean, how many days can the food in a grocery store last before it is all pilfered?

[gardenfay]

I have to say this is one of the reasons I like living in n. MT and was the same in n. minn. - though alot of things might not be the greatest- if TSHTF, city folks would have to come a long way, past alot of other places to come bother us here. i mean; look at the weather channel; when you have a state as ;)big at MT and not a city in it has enough population to qualify for their local on the 8s list or whatever the heck it is (this new years eve pina colada might be getting to me; should have stuck to my one beer a nite! hehehe) then you know we dont have too many of them to worry about .

[jott]

I don’t believe we will ever see masses of people leaving the cities. The truth is most city people are just as afraid of the country as a lot of people here seem to be of the city. I remember when I was a kid some new people move in down the road, we invited them over one night and they seem very uneasy about it. Finally they admitted they where worried about leaving the house after dark since there was no lights and they did not know what animals mite get them, the same people are more then comfortable walking around a city after dark even if some street lights are out. People are the same everywhere they are not comfortable with what they have not done before.

I think you will see a lot of people that have hunting cabins come out since they know the area some. But that mite be a good opportunity for you. When you see them looking blankly at the deer they shot not sure what to do next you could trade some meat for you to butcher it for them. Or if they don’t have anything worth trading them maybe you could use some fire wood cut, who knows. People want stability and social interaction make a few trades and you will have someone to count on if you need it. Even if all government and organizations fall apart new ones will be put together fast. Think about it when have you heard of a gang member saying they joined because they liked killing and stealing. They say it is because they knew they could count on each other. That’s what most people will want.

[WileyCoyote]

I currently live off of one of the most well-traveled interstates in the US, in a small rural town that will grow from 2000 to 240,000 in the next ten years. So for me the threat of invasion is very close and personal. During hurricane evacuations from other states, we are inundated with people - and many are not the "gee, I just want to get away safe" types, they are people looking for other people to take advantage of, rob, and/or attack. In my current position I HAVE to stay - to guard the homes and businesses of the people I promised to protect, even if the owners are long gone up the road. Our unofficial motto is "A Chainsaw in one hand, a pistol in the other". Even now, without a crisis situation, people from a nearby city come over to rob and rape and kill as well as to dump their bodies already. They already know where we are and what we have in this area.

We are 30 miles from one of the rich folkses' retreats, and if THAT place is evacuated, it will be swamped immediately by looters and vandals and thieves, as well as people who will murder simply because the cops are gone and they can.

Did you know that for two days in NO before Katrina hit, the buses from Chicago, NY, and Detroit were dropping off people who came there specifically to loot and take advantage of the predicted devastation?

So - it depends on the location, and the scope and breadth and length of, either a natural or man-made disaster. Will it happen? Yes. When? Soon. In my lifetime? Well, I am only 50, and plan to live to be at least 90, so yes, probably.

A localized disaster will be to an extreme extent manageable. A massive economic crash, or the Yellowstone SuperVolcano, or the entire-east-Coast 150-foot high tsunami that results from the Canary Islands dropping that land mass into the sea - these will be beyond the scope of all emergency responses, and many local recoveries. Those who can run will, as far and as fast as they can, taking any and everything they want or need to survive. If there is an inadequate recovery ability - and in those massive situations there will be - people who have been raised to believe in the nanny state will turn on whomever is closest. If and as it progresses in time, they will go further and further out, searching for food, shelter, and whatever creature comforts they are used to - even if they have to rob or kill to have them.

Will they make it into rural areas around you? It depends on HOW rural, how accessible you are - and from what direction they will come, as well as where they are heading for their own comfort (or whatever comfort has been promised them).

And that is why I am looking to move to an even more rural community! 8)

[Southern_Gent]

People may indeed flee to another city during a disaster, but if we're talking about a large-scale disaster, then the next city is likely just as screwed as the first. As infrastructure is no longer able to provide utilties, as law breaks down, as supplies dwindle, chaos will ensue. The city will no longer be a refuge, given human nature for what it is, it will become a true jungle, where survival of the fittest rules. People will leave the cities and look for soft targets, that being individual homesteads, from where they can acquire food and other needed items.

Maybe some will come in good faith, willing to work for what they need. I'm not going to count on it, though, as even the most vile pieces of human garbage can appear very nice upon initial encounters. That being said, the homestead would be best prepared to take advantage of concealment, as well as being well fortified with both defensive and offensive measures.

By the way, my tin-foil hat size is 7.25, in case anyone is curious.

[edward_4576]

For a good idea of what might happen try reading Alas Babylon.

[Weezin]

Thank You , Edward: one of my favorite reads.
I too belive city people will flee to other cities. Thats what they know.
I was just thinking of the Southern Calif. fires compared to Katrina.
Seeing the free massages to relieve stress and the 4 star hotels laying out buffett meals at the shelters. Or the small jazz bands playing comfort music.
Loads of donated food, dry goods, water, etc.... That was too much to give away.
Looking back, life in the shelters in Southern Cal. was better than life in the 9th. ward befor Katrina.
I guess if your going to Bug-Out head for Orange County, California.

[Archangel]

I've read in the foxfire series about cars of people stopping and taking all of the apples and leaving the farmer nothing.

[sabrefan]

I'm from NW Pennsylvania on Lake Erie... If something happens that all/most of our current luxeries are gone I think you'll see a large exodus of people to the country... but how many will be prepared or have the will/knowledge to survive is the big question, I don't think many. Another question is how the government is going to react... that scares me more than regular civilians.

[edward_4576]

When I think of a scenario like that several issues come to mind:

1.The Johnny come lately will take their 38 snub nose or .22 LR or something and head to the country. The only thing they'll know is "State Park". Anyone that lives close to a state park better keep an eye on their livestock.

2.Drug addicts and those addicted to the govn't teat. The mindset is that it's due them. Hospitals, clinics and grocery stores will be nightmares.

3. Only the worst of the worst will stay in the deep urban areas and I believe they won’t be banding together. From some of the documentaries I see concerning gang related activity it takes a strong charismatic leader to hold a gang together. Being the smart ones they will bail and leave most of the deadweight behind which will end up killing each other in power struggles.

4.With most industries being set up for supply on demand type delivery any transportation breakdown will quickly cause supplies to run out and the paltry attempts by the govrn’t will only fool the sheeple for so long and at that point the mobs ire will target govrn’t offices and such.

5.Finally anyone located along major evacuation routes will have it tough as well. I foresee several waves of evacuees. The first wave may not even be seen, these will be the true survivalist getting out of dodge before the sheeple are even aware of what’s happening. The second wave will be the ones that have listened to Sammy Sugar and have the three day BOB but won’t know what to do. I classify them as refugees. Finally you’ll have your stragglers; these are the ones that are plucked from doom via copter, looters that have everything they want and finally the scavenger/raiders.

[commonsense]

If B. Hussein Obama gets elected the threat will be very real.

[edward_4576]

Ok lets get serious now. I've been putting together a list of things that could be a factor in a SHTF scenario. These things have already happened or may soon happen. I have them divided into five categories. First do you think the categories are from the most serious to the least serious and secondly are the items in category complete and relevant and thirdly are there any other categories you would include. Here's my list:

National Security

Increase of gang/drug related activity on our boarders

Estimated 20 million criminal foreigners in our country

Military stretched thin with two active wars in the Middle East

Increase of dependency on foreign imports

Imports of contaminated food and products on the rise

Economic

Fuel/food prices on the rise

Unemployment on the rise

Mortgage meltdown

Trade Deficit at an all time high

Possible recession/depression on the horizon

Declining tax base

Public issues

Drug resistant TB on the rise in Europe and Africa

Continuing spread of un-mutated H5N1 virus around the world

Continuing spread of mutated H1N1 seasonal flu that’s drug resistant

Growing senior population

Deteriorating infrastructure

Political

Current administration – trampling civil rights

Presidential candidates – uninspired/business as usual

Political Corruption rampant

House/congress disregarding majority desires

Environmental issues

Increased use of bio-fuels

Increased proliferation of genetically engineered life forms

Proliferation of non-indigenous species plant/wildlife

Increase of severe weather and other natural disasters

[landshark]

I don't think the Environmental impacts would lead to a nationwide collapse of society. It will at most influence daily life in a surrounding region - much like the Katrina scenario commented on above.

National security hasn't done it yet. All the things you mention have already happened and people are willingly letting it continue. THe only way to fix this as I see it is a massive overhaul of the current political make-up. Which leads me to your political points.

I believe your top 3 are already here, and the 4th one is almost to that point. The courts are determining how the country is being run with regard to majority/minority issues. So far, nothing is being done about this either. THe only solution is to dramatically change the House and Senate and install people who will have the brass ones (figure of speech, not intended to be only men) needed to make the changes needed and not worry about the money flow from special interests and businesses.

Lastly we have social and economic issues. While we are seeing some of these points starting and coninuing, these are those that I see having the greatest influence on the general collapse of society. People have changed since the 1930's, and I think if we see a true depression (banks closing down, jobs disappearing, etc) then the urban areas will turn into anarchy, or even a warlord type scenario where the cities are divided into different areas controlled by the strongest guy on the block. People will not know the first thing about doing it for themselves, and personal safety will be priority for those who survive the initial wave of violence.

Massive epidemic or pandemic will also lead to a general collapse of society. When panic strikes all hell breaks loose. People will withdraw from society interaction and all shipment comes to a halt. Illness breeds fear.

Overall I think it will be a combination of all of the above factors that will lead to a general breakdown of society. But there will need to be a catalyst to set it all in motion, and once it starts it will increase rapidly. I feel that the threat to someone's food and/or money to get food - or even the perceived threat - will be just the catalyst required.

Just my humble opinion of course.