How long till the SHTF?

[sethwyo]

How long will it be untill we hafto realy be self reliant?
When the situation Calls for us to DO WITHOUT.
What is going to happen anyhow?
For most everyone the stores are empty and looted, the power is out, And all the mean stupid people that ever did us wrong are killing each other out of mindless desperation. And we, are living off of our stockpiled goods, Blasting the accasional spook As it tries to raid the garden. What this means to us is freedom, no noisy neighbors, No Nazie cops harrasing and imprisoning us, No taxes, No corporations monopolizing everything. The list of things we will be without is quite long. But how long? If ever.
How long will it be untill the police start to arrest people
for 'hording' food, and sezing food? A law will be made for that too.
Will it ever happen? What will cause it?
the country that was formerly America cannot continue
the way it is going. The NAU is already happening.
Gun 'control' is on the way.
It would take a lot of things happening all at once For us to realy be able to 'do without' the way we would like. Volcanios, earthquakes, crop failure, flooding, The yupies dieing off in the millions, All the things i dream about. and all the differnt groups- Muslims mexican gangs Black gangs Satanic cult groups police ect.
Exterminating all the doctors and lawers and such, then themselves.
I think it is realy going to happen very slowly, decades from now. And it arnt going to be fun. i will probuly be shot dead for Failing to signal when driving, or by some other way the state will mandate, long before it happens.
All comments welcome.

[ShadowWolf]

I would imagine we have around a year or so.

[bookwormom]

what do you base your opinion on? and what do you think is going to happen?

[johnjmw]

I've thought for years now that if/when gas reaches $5 a gallon you'll start to see the social problems start. If they are not handled correctly (I doubt the gov will) I believe it will be the beginning of the spiral down. Now that price is just around the corner. People are starting to siphon gas again. How much longer before peak oil? We are not really ready to survive with out it but it will be forced on us. IMO as the price of gas goes up the SHTF gets closer.
JW

[madmac]

Interesting topic. I see the government making every effort to move us to cities, taking away guns, and inacting marshal law. This will make it easier for them to control a large population. It will also create a revolution here in the USA as many will want to form groups to keep the freedoms we all enjoy. To really know what will take place is going to be anyones guess. Start getting your stockpile now as it's only going to get harder and cost more not mention as times get harder their may be measures put in place to monitor who is buying what. The government isn't big enough nor will they have time to knock on everyones door to take what they feel you shouldn't have but one never knows what methods they may incorperate to keep riots and such from breaking out. One more thing that we as Americans should try and do is STOP BUYING FROM CHINA!!!!! Buy American and bring our money, work force and pride back home. Be safe my brothers and sisters.

[shingletownwalt]

Look at what happen in the Soviet Union when the economy collapsed. The different areas broke away and formed their own countries Is that in our future? How far are we from a total collapse of our economy? I need to know when so I can move to Idaho or Montana where the sane people live.

[walls0stone]

I try not to be a dooms-day-er. Many times our world has looked rather rotten. I feel it's all for the better. Force many to get lives back into perspective.I feel that bad times were prep for a great need years later. But, they are hitting great amounts of natural gas in Northern PA. Now what if we had cars that ran on that?

[sethwyo]

I rember a haggar the horrible strip, Haggar is singing about how its a great time to be alive, no tax man knocking on ( or down) your door, a man is free to do whatever he wants, he goes dancing out the door, The other characters are not happy at all, helga says, "only haggar could enjoy the dark ages".
Our economy is slowly falling over, The country formerly known as america is a big place, It will take a while, The eliet will seize resorces from the people, the cops will have the gas, Thay need it of course, and we will pay for them to have it. the resorces will go to the gov so thay can continue to live in their twisted fantisy worlds. Look at the attitude of the people that think thay are god almighty now, And the welfar wards, *And think what thay will be like when the power is off, no shower, food, gas for cars, no cola ,cigerets , And no matter how many times thay push the button the TV just will not come on for them. and then thay see you happy, with your life and world still intact, and all thay have is * anger that you wont give give give.
People will start leaving the cities, and the wild game will disapear. people will group together, good and bad.
God help the people who find themselves amoung a group of lowlifes crazed with hunger and hate. I feel it now, Im the outcast at work, The goodie goodie
that buys bags of rice ad beans insted of booze and porn. In a riot thay would kill me in a heart beat.
I have informed them that i own NO firearms of course.
the problem with no gas will cause problems. But look who is countroling the fuel, *the people will play right into their hands, *The gov. will offer a system to put their so called lives back to normal, Tv tobbaco and booze to keep them medicated, And the people will want it, and since thay didnt have or want freedom anyhow, Why sure thay will give it up for things to be the way they wore before. *
The only way this will be stoped is for a earthquake or volcaino to mess the earth up so good that ther will be no gov left, no buracatic lowlifes to rebuild a police state. *NO FemiNazies, who have destroyed womanhood, motherhood, childhood, manhood, the family, *And the 'men' that let them do it. no lawers that sneer while destroying a human life.
no doctors that inject an infant with poison.
And the people that support them, "please run my life and tell me what to do, we need you gov. we cannot live without you.

To hell with them all.

[walls0stone]

Did that happen in the 30's?

How will they get to here with out a car? NYC is a 3 hour drive, but most of them don't have cars.

Guess if they don't have the wellfair check, they will get a job or Die, and decrese the surpluss population.

When a rich man needs to eat...he'll be nice to the man with the crops.

my people have been in this very house since 1900, so anyone wants to come and mess with my 300 arces...come test me. ;)

[walls0stone]

you talk of cops needing gas, they told our local cops to get out of the car and walk...

[sethwyo]

you talk of cops needing gas, they told our local cops to get out of the car and walk...
Love it. who told them that?
In the 30's a lot of people walked around the country, begging, stealing, people that had cars stold gas, some stold cars. Their wont be any jobs to have, They only know paper to trade for food at the store, Not real work, growing food. people are differnt today, the welfar attitude did not exist in the 30's, The vicious contempt people have now will make things a lot different. Canibalism? why not. A studie showed that the average person is 30 days away from eating their Husband, wife, child, parent whoever.

[walls0stone]

Their bosses told them to walk a few hours a day to get in touch with the people of the town, and to conserve.

I don't trust surveys. If they won’t work, let them starve

I feel that the 30's were God's way of prepping a generation for the sacrifice needed to make the world better again.

[MotherCharlotte]

I've thought for years now that if/when gas reaches $5 a gallon you'll start to see the social problems start.


$5 a gallon I don't think is all that high. We're already paying that in Canada (our gas has always been more expensive, I wish I knew why) and in fact most of the world pays much more for gasoline than people do in the States. At $5 a gallon I don't think gas prices are going to cause social problems. What I see in Canada is that it is causing people to think more about getting more gas efficient vehicles and using public transit. Carpooling, etc. We have been paying $5.60 a gallon ($1.40 per litre) in my city and I have never heard of anyone siphoning gas!

One more thing that we as Americans should try and do is STOP BUYING FROM CHINA!!!!! Buy American and bring our money, work force and pride back home. Be safe my brothers and sisters.

This is very true, for EVERY country. Slowly but surely China has moved into the position of the manufacturing powerhouse for the entire world. No matter what country you go to, you will find goods made in China. I live in an area of Canada (southern Ontario) that used to be the manufacturing heartland of our country, and I have seen plant after plant shut down as production moves to China. It's disgusting. So many people are unemployed here and on welfare because there are no more jobs, they are all in China. All our pride is gone and replaced with a feeling of powerlessness.

The latest thing--close to us is the Heinz plant that produces the Heinz ketchup for all North America. Guess what? We know someone who works there and it looks like they're going to move the plant to China. The city that existed to work that huge plant will become a ghost town.

The few plants that do exist here (auto industry and related parts) produce crap because they make things with parts that came from China!

I think it's really scary that not only all of our consumer goods but now a large portion of our FOOD is coming from China...

Sorry if I am hijacking the thread, it's just something I feel very strongly about. I can't believe that every developed country has managed to destroy their own self-sufficiency in manufacturing so completely and swiftly.

[walls0stone]

Hinez, as in Hinez-Karri? as in John, the dolt who ran for office? Yep, great American move.

Many things should change. demand=supply.

put those folks to work in the mid west. Get the rail lines move'n again.. natural gas powered cars, and rather than a long trip to Wall-Mart, walk to the local General store to buy goods from local providers.

[wy0mn]

I'd like to support local markets but they are rare in my neck of the prairie, and the General Stores in these remote towns have marked everything up to the point that a one hour commute for shopping in bulk is far more practical.

At current fuel prices we are already seeing theft from private autos! If a person will steal gas they will steal other things as well. I think that fuel theft should be treated the same as the old wests horse thieves, shoot on sight! Living an hour from the hospital it'd be awful to discover your tank was siphoned when you needed it the most.

[walls0stone]

That's what happened here for a time. Local kids were known for steal'n gas from farm trucks ect... One night a farmer parked his truck beside the road..easy bait. He lay on the bench seat with a 30-30 and round 2 am, when the gas cap came off...he flipped the driver door open with a flip of his foot, worked the action and said...”may I help you?”

After the boy wet his pants........:) The trouble stopped word spread and few would try it.

Our local store was on the way to both local churches. Back in the day, the butcher, baker and so on worked out of that store. People would walk to church (after milking) and on the way by the church, place the Sunday dinner order and leave a grocery list. When church was out, you’d go get your roast, chicken, whatever, groceries, and the Sunday paper. They had a hard ware store, and bulk foods to. Oh and Gas pumps... I guess some old guys would take the lawn mower to church and fill up on the way. Became kind of an inside joke.

[aerontg]

Love it. who told them that?
In the 30's a lot of people walked around the country, begging, stealing, people that had cars stold gas, some stold cars. Their wont be any jobs to have, They only know paper to trade for food at the store, Not real work, growing food. people are differnt today, the welfar attitude did not exist in the 30's, The vicious contempt people have now will make things a lot different. Canibalism? why not. A studie showed that the average person is 30 days away from eating their Husband, wife, child, parent whoever.


Where did you hear THAT horsedung? Sorry, but that's beyond doomsday'ism. Don't be silly.

[walls0stone]

no don't disscurage them....let the libs eat each other and reduce the surpluss population.

[sethwyo]

the hinez plant being moved over to china shows what is going to happen, this country is loosing its ability to manufactur things, so many of the people here need industrial manufactered pre-prepired food, If someone else gets control of the food supplie, thay can starve them.
Sure, if socitey fell apart, some of us could go to idaho and
fire up the bullet plant, We could grow food and bulid vehicles and make fuel. But think of the LOGISTICS of trying to produce food and prosess it and transport it, for All the people, when the base for it is overseas.
has anyone read about When Jerusalem fell? The people wore eating human afterbirth, And then each other.
The christins got out before the SHTF.
The one thing no one thinks about is that when america falls down, WE WILL BE INVADED, Mabey china, the muslims are already here.
The reason america had sucsess in wwII was because of its ability to produce everything. Now how much of our own things do we make, Our ball bearing manufacture is overseas, We cant make things to go to war with.how long will a fortified town last against a profeshional army? U.S. or other.

[madmac]

I don't see things getting better. Our politicians make false promisies and continue to sell out our country. I can just see it now. Hey China, we want to buy ammo to kick your a$$. Do you think they would go for it. I know what it would take just like every other hard working American to turn things around but we are not going to get it from government. China is the next world power and we owe government for selling out. I have prepared to fight the fight and survive the hardships but I am just a grain of sand surrounded by many without a clue.

[walls0stone]

I'd not worry about the food issues. one major factor is that they pay us more for organic, it's a joke. we make less and charge you more? What?? also, you do have the CREEp program that ensures the land will stay open and tax free to farmers, so that it can be had for agg and not developed. One farmer will feed 100 people this year. plant a garden and keep up what your doing, but farming is not the worry.

buy the way, when Adelphia went out...they replaced the jobs with millitary contractors. Nothing like working in Potter county and seeing a few Wart Hog-war plains training... ;D

[edward_4576]

Hopefully not too much longer. Seriously though, this is TEOTWAWKI. Most everyone here talks about the good ole' days. Those days are gone and the world as we knew it is gone.

As to what happens next, consider the following.

1. On the morning and nightly talking heads they are already referring to themselves as "Elite".

2. China is not as big a problem as everyone thinks they are. What happens when no one can afford or want to buy their junk? Chaos....

3. Our current dilemma reminds me of the story Light's Out. In the beginning a rich middle eastern sheik wants to harm the US and because of his extreme wealth he doesn't care what happens to his own country just revenge on the US. What countries in the world hate the US and what is their greatest asset? Is the US under attack even as we speak?

4. In the last several years we have seen our presidents decisions as being terribly wrong, I now look at his words as being the opposite of what we should do. The politicians that are running our country are only in it for themselves and to hell with the little guy.

5. As to when there will be rioting in the streets, I don't see that happening. As pointed out most people are too lazy to do anything like that. This most recent round of economic stimulus packages should tell you something. Think PAX Romana, bread and circuses. Just remember when the trucks are shoveling out MRE's and emergency food in your neighborhood remember to dress appropriately and stay in line. ;)

One final word, I may not have the same beliefs as those FLDS people in Texas but it does go to show you how much power good ole' Uncle Sam has. Don't tell anyone of your preps unless you absolutely trust them, plan to hide in plain site, draw no attention to yourselves and be ready to employ the three S's.

[walls0stone]

When people say "a country hates us" I wonder what the talking heads mean? For example, it would be like saying that Pennsylvania hates gun control. Or that Americans Love baseball.

How many states were hit by Katrina? How many were in the news? see the difference?

Do the talking heads say what they say because bad news sells??

[suijurisfreeman]

When people say "a country hates us" I wonder what the talking heads mean? *For example, it would be like saying that Pennsylvania hates gun control. *Or that Americans Love baseball. *

How many states were hit by Katrina? *How many were in the news? see the difference?

Do the talking heads say what they say because bad news sells??


I think Don Henley's song Dirty Laundry says it all about the talkin' heads!
"The song is about the callousness (and callowness) of TV news reporting as well as the tabloidization of all media news. Henley sings from the standpoint of a news anchorman who "could have been an actor, but I wound up here", and thus is not a real journalist. The song's theme is that TV news coverage focuses too much on negative and sensationalist news; in particular, deaths, disasters, and scandals, with little regard to the consequences or for what is important ("We all know that crap is king")."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_Laundry

How about alittle trivia?
What album was this song on?
What year was it released?
On the single what was the flip side of Dirty Laundry?

I used this song on one of my 65 signs back in 2005 while I was remonstrating for 22 days on the Monroe County courthous square. I also used Liar by Three Dog Night, Liar, Liar by the Castaways and several other oldies -- I called it dissin' to the oldies! ;D

[sethwyo]

I think too many people fantisize about a collapse that will not happen, thay want an end to the way america is, And it would be justice to see all the lowlifes in high places starving and in dissmay without their lifestyles that thay pay for with our money. To us a collapse of order means freedom from the american dictatorship.
Things will get bad, BUT the gov will step in and provide a system that people will accept so they can get back in front of their TV's. I think that when people stop giving (in the form of buying)to a imuture brat like china, it will take what it wants. like the welfar people. No it wont get better, this country will become more of a police state, And the gov will have us all taged and numbered .And i think that the only thing that will stop it is a world wide splash That will leave EVERYTHING in ruins, When will the SHTF ? Something hasto happen, one way or another, A BuracRAT cant live forever.
But i think it is going to be latter rather than sooner.

[walls0stone]

At this point I think total downfall more of a dream for a group of people. I also agree that many will get free-bees becouse they are to lazy to get a real job after 12 years at Mo-Mo-U amda PHD inunderwater baskeet weaving, oh and no real job.

But total fall out is unrealistic. If anything, folks from other countries will come here, buy land and companies and our kids will be working for them.

I also think that tons of people want to cry wolf so people will buy their snake oil or book. If a person wanted to make a diffrance, get behind a man and help him get into office. They can't all be scum-suckers

[wy0mn]

I can imagine many situations where our worst nightmares could become a reality, the primary cause would be petroleum or the lack of it.
There was a tread a while back where a lady brought up a serious point. With the rise in transportation fuel she really didn't know how long she'd be able to afford to work! The economic stimulus refund was cool, but there was a simpler solution for boosting the economy. Raise the minimum wage. Trust me, give the working poor money and it would have hit the economy. A Ramen noodle diet gets old quick. As it is, the stimulus went toward paying credit debt, into savings, or spent at the pump, for the majority very little went straight into purchase.
There are many smaller trucking fleets & independents who are claiming bankruptcy daily. Goods aren't getting delivered, and when they are, its at an inflated rate so prices of goods are adjusted accordingly. When the poor get desperate they can become desperados, rigs & loads are stolen daily. How long will it be before they are simply hijacked by armed gangs?
If you pull up a global political map of as little as 100 years ago you'll see that countries come and countries go. Violence is in our blood. This wasn't just stale history we were forced to learn for a passing grade. These were people with lives, relatives and dreams for the future. The Holocaust and Apartheid were real. Kenya recently had violence over an election that was no more phony than our last two.
What I can't see is an invasion of foreign buyers for the few things that are still made in America. With increased production cost, due to the inflated petro-dollar, and American resistance to wage slavery, its just not likely to occur. A social collapse with an instituted caste system could make it possible, but thats less likely than revolt or military invasion, both of which would qualify as SHTF moments in time.

[walls0stone]

but do they pay that stuff off?? NO.
They go to the bar, they get extra crap they don't need. *

They did bring up the min wage...I no longer hire help. *
reduce taxes on business owners and I can hire help.

That is the trouble with*imported products from over seas? *If you don't pay a bribe to the boss at the docks your products may be stolen or broken by carless deck hands. *Did you know that if you hold up a liquer store tonight, you'd make at least one paper...Pirets go unreported. *

trucks are hijacked by unarmed gangs constantly...why? Money, the driver tells somone about a great load of stuff...he gets "hijacked" and a cut of the cut of the fenced goods...and who foots the bill? *the consumer...ever been told that "it fell off a truck"

[Runt_Pup]

It is my belief that we are starting to see the begining of the "S" stuff hitting the fan now. The bulk of it has yet to hit full force. I'd say, between now and 2 or 3 years we aught to see a full force 5 poo storm.

[LobsterPond]

How long? We're stocking for about 12 years min (see MyBackAchers.com). We bought an ElecTrac and are in process of outfitting it with mini-implements".

The 2012 Dec date is the goal to be ready. We bought an electric tractor and are learning what we can. I also raise crayfish when able to but the backbone of the "homestead is chickens, rabbits and goats. Maybe a few hogs.

We saw the NetFlix movie - "A Crude Awakening" when it came out last summer and have watched things start to unfold. The Mayan prophecies are in the back of the mind and astro charts say there are several interesting "events" going on until 2025. Economic problems, pandemics, over population, energy shortages (which haven't even started . . .which I'll talk about later), the flip side of Global Warming - Global cooling AND the poles are shifting . . like that's not enough to deal with!

We had to buy the land to control our raw product prices to supply our website anyway but it gives us the opportunity to be more independent in general. The we read where Central American countries had peaked oil production and are "scheduled" to stop importing by 2011 - that's when the shortages will be apparent.

The Global cooling thing - Has anyone else watched "Strange Days on Planet Earth"? The theme is - we're all connected but they showed how over fishing off the coast of Africa are casing plums of sulfur to smolder from the ocean. Wasn't it sulfur that aused the Dark Ages cooling (along with food shortages, crop failures and the spreading of the Black Plague?).

Anyway - glad to see a group of like-minded people and am hoping to learn lot over the next years!

[sethwyo]

IT"S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT, AND I FEEL FINE. *A lot of "S" has happened to me in my life, And the one thing to rember while all the 'bad'(so-called) *things happen in this world, is that GOD is 'almighty' AND 'all in control'. *I am only going to live untill i die, And then i'll live forever. And none of the things that happened here will matter. America is a wicked nation, And GOD will punish it as usual, *The social terrorist i mentioned before, (feminazies, lawers ECT.) will get their reward for what thay have done, Let the chinese invade and do whatever thay want to them.
Why would i try to stop them? *My point in this yarn was some of us want a SHTF incident to set us free from a system run by criminals in high places, BUT that the only thing that will cause this is a world wide sneeze, Mabey the planets all being in line and our solar system droping to the bottom of the galaxie will do it, at 11:11 o'clock 2012, The volcaion in jackson going off and covering several states? Sounds good to me. Think of all the people problems that would solve.
No buranazies telling me to pay taxes, to comb my hair, to STOP playing with guns, No state sponsored terrorist
Abusing me. No nosie neighbors trying to control and dominate my life, Yes i know i sound bitter, I'v herd it before, Because its true. Them destroying themselves by their own greed and stupidity is my revenge, And i dont hafto do anything except prepair myself.

[Buck]

Well , mate. Just lay it out plain already! :o :o

[msta999]

Heres an idea, lets just find a way to get the majority of the people to ban together and vote the bastards out! All of them at once......Na! it would never work. People can't get past their political views.

[bookwormom]

you are right, it would not work,
we are blowing a great opportunity right now, but Ron Paul only got 34 votes in my County.

[sethwyo]

You can not vote them out. 'Them' meaning the people that are destroying this nation. *You can not blame the problems of this country on a few hundred politicals. *This society has become cloged up with losers. *The average citizen Has become a social sicko.
A few days ago the oil field service shop that my dad works at was broken into, the thief tore open the pop macine and stold all the paper dollars, *The emploies arrived, and someone rembered that one time the macine didnt give them anything for thier money, so thay took several, then several more for interest, thay all cused whoever had broken in and stold the money, BUT thay ALL stold bottles of pop. grown men stealing pop. *Ron paul wont change the way americans are, And so the country wont change. *
The S has already hit the fan, It happened a long time ago.

[JAK]

I think now is as good a time as any to be self reliant.

Sustainability - It's the new plastic.

[Cowgirl]

I think now is as good a time as any to be self reliant.


I agree with that! I don't know what will happen in the future. I don't know what will happen tomorrow. I'm not gifted with an ability to foretell the future. Who knows, truly, what will happen next?

I know that my parents have lived through great change during their lives. My grandparents did also. I've lived through some tumultuous times. I'm sure I'll live through more tumultuous times if I am blessed to live long enough.

Meanwhile, I try to enjoy life. I try to live as self-sufficiently and sustainably as possible today. All I know is that I love living as self-reliantly as possible. It is my way of life. It is the only way I have ever wanted to live, as a homesteader.

[EarthMother]

I hope I am wrong but I think it will be sooner than later I have had an urge since about 1990 to get prepared. I believe that the Y2K thing was just practice. I agree that God is in control however He will only be in control if we listen and follow His directions. Our country has become insane. Remember the bible says " A man who WILL not work shall not eat! Now what is our country trying to do but feed all those people on welfare who will NOT work. I'm not speaking of those who cannot work so please don't even go there.

I believe God sent me and my family to where we are so we can become self suffcient. Now if I could only get a garden to grow from rock. :D

[walls0stone]

start building walls

[stew]

start building walls
10ft tall with a bamboo hedge behind them?

[sethwyo]

Do you want walls to keep them out? Or in?
If 'thay' think that I am trying to keep them out then thay wont stop trying to get in. I dont think there will be any situation to pop up and stop the way things are, I feel like a refuge, I cant run, i cant hide, and the state sponsored terrorist are increasing, and becoming more buligernt every day. If i build a wall, the idiots down the road will call the idiots at the police station, "That one guy built a wall and we think he wants to keep us out" What i wanted to point out was that i dont believe there will ever be a time when we will be able to shoot back. No over night colapse, only a long drawn out one, while the 'eliet' gain more control.

[stew]

Point taken. Depends where you are. In Mexico, its quite normal to see 10ft ( and more) walls everywhere, so that wouldn't draw attention. Its just a case of keeping out the 'opportunist' - the 'determined' you will have whatever you do.

[sethwyo]

I have found something great for building walls, OLD TIRES.
After reading an article in bwhm *about using tires to grow taters, I began picking up tires from the tire stores on my way home every day, Aside from finding some of these still having enough life left to use, i Had stacked them and after a few months had a wall over 100 ft long and 7 ft high.

These can also be used to make a building, stack them into walls and lay beems and plywood for the roof.
I think its great.

The SHTF wont happen, The globalist wont let it, *I think all the 2nd american revolution stuff is also being used to control us, *To use us for their own purpose. *War is used to make people so miserable thay they will accept what they are given, *The russians accepted communisim to get some order after suffering everything possible during their civile war, One group was the reds and the other was blues, or something. *And all they did was exterminate eachother for the world bankers. But they wore made to believe thay wore in control. *And they wore, In control of millions of peoples lives, and what happened to those people?

The american government is pushing the people, Soon the people will hafto push back, Its a national version of the cop pushing someone to to the point of loosing it and fighting back, so they can shoot them in 'Self defence'.

When did the SHTF for Socialized germany? *When other nations destroyed their culture and nation. Now how is germany rembered? The same way the mainstreem idiots rember waco, " A child molester who stockpiled Machine guns and Murdered the nobel law enforcment officers who tried to stop him and his CULT of craized anti government killers".

The people who rely on the government for everything, OR even for somethings, will be the ones turning on them first, And what kind of rulers will they be when thay are in control?
Will they leave you alone, or will you be the enemy of the New Receded state? *Will you be allowed to keep your propery, or forced to share it with freedom fighters who feel like god because they have overthrown the government?
The people like the hippies who protested the establishment now have taken over the establishment,
They didnt hate the Man, they wanted to be the Man.

[walls0stone]

I have found something great for building walls, OLD TIRES.
After reading an article in bwhm *about using tires to grow taters,

These can also be used to make a building, stack them into walls and lay beems and plywood for the roof.
I think its great.

The SHTF wont happen, The globalist wont let it, *I think all the 2nd american revolution stuff is also being used to control us, *To use us for their own purpose.

I agree with the tires, been use'n them in trench silos for years...and again, we called it poverty...no big fancy ideas but someday they will wright a book on it, and have an inspecter and a class on building silos from tires and corupt it. *Much as your talking about with this SHTF stuff.

I however would dissagree with the scale of what your saying...if I undersand you right.

In markeeting you have 4 modivators that move people to buy your product or act as wish them to. *Fear,Duty, Sex and Greed. *

Now fear and Duty are the 2 I see in this case. * No I do not think that the people who created BWH are using this... HOWEVER some people are. * Think of all the bomb shelters that became garden sheds back in the cold war. *who made all the jack on those? *never got to test the warrenty did we? If you use the duty appeal, you can say something like,

"Hard times are come'n. Don't you want to provide for your family when the SHTF?" * well you'll have tons of people who would not care, but most people on this sight would say, Yes I want to be a good provider. *SO

Then I tell you about this gun or this cabin I have for sale or some book I wrote. *We don't see this sort of thing becouse it's every place! *No one has ever done anything with out the influce of this. * WE'd all love to think we are stead fast and independent thinkers but those people are the Easyest to sell to. *The key is to sell it like your NOT a salesmen.
I think that it's just the next dotcom, bubble on a small scale...moved by many people on a band wagon, sluffing products and public speaking events for a living, not sinister men, in dark smoky rooms plotting the demise of the world.

In some ways it's great you can move people to conserve or act in a good way, *but the force can be used for the dark side as well. *So long as we fear that the SHTF, we will be subject to buying into the products we will "need" when it never does.

[grower]

8 months, 1 week and 6 days. 8)

Honestly, though, I believe it will come with another 9/11.
I believe someone will attack us in a big way, and the federal government will take advantage of all the resources George Bush is leaving behind for them (The USA Patriot Act, undermining of habeas corpus, etc.) and clamp down. The magnitude of the task will be too great for the government to handle it all, though.

I'd say within the next 2 years.

[jebrown]

There are many instances of shtf some are small. Local tornado, ice storm, flooding etc. Then there is large shtf. Hurricanes winter storms eartquakes etc.
The chances of a large scale breakdown in this country is extremely remote. I am not saying it can't or won't happen just not too likely.
I know that a lot of you are shaking your head and questiong my ideals but after 22 years of working disaters from a local single family housefire to the large scale disasters like earthquakes (lived in California for 37 years) to tornados (currently living in tornado alley Oklahoma)and flooding. In tough times people will pull together and help one another. Yes I know that there are some incidents of crime during a disater but they are
overblown and rare. Ther are a handfull of Katrina evacuees living in my town who were in the middle of everything. They say that there was some skirmishes between people nut the large scale rape robbery and murders sjust didn't happen.
People keep talking about society as we know it breaking down are just trying to make tyhemselves feel better as they are prepared and will be here when the haves become have nots. I have been providing disasster prepaaredness seminars as well as assisting people from the local homeowner to the city and county goverments on how to prepare. Believe me the rich and powerful are just as prepared if not more so than us, after all the have more money to spend on preparation than we do. People who do and do not preapare cross all social, economic, religous boundries.
Although a large scale society breakdown is possible on yesterdays news an Associated press article in my local paper an article on CNN.com and the ABC evening news talked about a report that the possiblity of a nuclear attack or a biochemical attack is growing more likely between now and 2013. In todays news they are talking about the increase of cholera in Zimbabwe.
I am more concerned about preparing for what is happening than what may or may not happen
Stop and think about what is necessary for large scale collapse and what is necessary for a handfull of terrorists getting thier hands on some biochemical agents and cultureing it into mass quantities for release in the U.S.A. and/or foreign countires. How hard would it be for them to obtain cholera from Zimbabwe and grow it for massive release?
Politicians have screwed over the people from the beginning yet we continue to elect and re-elect them.
As far as China they are not that big of a threat. As far as our food coming from China yes some does but remeber that 25% of the food condsumed in the U.S.A. and 10% of the food consumed worlwide comes from California. All but about 3 different crops grown in other states is also grown in California. It is just that laarger quantities of some crops are grown in other states.
No I am not happy with the way government acts. I know that politicians all lie to get into office but today that is the American way like it ofr not.

[tumbleing_dice]

Today if not sooner is My best guess
I have never expressed my pessimistic feelings to My children or those I love on this issue but will now
I have thought the markets would crash before newyears and feel even stronger on this now
S&P 500 *-41.60 *832.90 *12/12 6:13am *S&P 500 FUTURES
Fair Value 871.84 12/11 10:55pm
Difference* -38.94
NASDAQ -46.00 1144.00 12/12 6:00am NASDAQ FUTURES
Fair Value 1185.69 12/11 10:55pm
Difference* -41.69
Dow Jones -320.00 8250.00 12/12 6:08am
DJIA Contracts

above are the pre market futures worst I can remember
below are today's *business headlines
Dollar falls to record low against yen
5:41am: The U.S. Senate's rejection of a bailout for the auto industry sends the dollar tumbling to a 13-year low against the yen. more
Auto bailout collapses in Senate
6:12am: Negotiations to bring measure up for vote fall short, possibly dooming GM, Chrysler to bankruptcy. more
Bank of America to shed up to 35,000 jobs
Dec 11: Job cuts, over 3 years, will hit all units as bank reviews operations in light of the weakening economy and merger with Merrill Lynch *more
KB Toys files for Chapter 11
Dec 11: Toy retailer files for bankruptcy for the second time in four years as sales remain weak ahead of the holiday. *more
Ex-Nasdaq chair arrested for securities fraud
6:22am: Bernard Madoff was arrested Thursday and charged with operating a multibillion-dollar Ponzi scheme from his investment advisory business. more
* * *
More News
• Bank bailout funds could be used for Detroit
• Help for seniors slammed by stocks
• Stocks slump on auto bailout worries
• Americans' debt shrinks - 1st time ever
• Pope: Lust for quick profit caused crisis
• Holiday air travel slowdown seen
• White House: We can't afford auto collapse
• FDA advisers: Restrict 2 asthma drugs
• 'Wanted: Bank failure specialist.' Pays $156K
• PNC to sell 61 National City branches
• Get ready for the final rate cut
• Trade gap rises as exports plummet
• Gas prices may be near bottom
• U.S. sellers to world: Please buy our leftovers
these are reports due out today and soon they look sad

Dec 12
Producer Price Index (Nov , 2008)
Dec 12
Retail Sales (Nov , 2008)
Dec 12
Business Inventories (Oct , 2008)
Dec 12
Consumer Sentiment (Dec , 2008)
Dec 15
FOMC Meeting Begins (Dec , 2008)
Dec 15
Empire State Mfg Survey (Dec , 2008)
Dec 15
Treasury International Capital (Oct , 2008)
Dec 15
Industrial Production (Nov , 2008)
Dec 15
Housing Market Index (Dec , 2008)
Dec 16
ICSC-Goldman Stor

[tumbleing_dice]

this is a link to a fun ???click able map of the markets it is set to look at the last year,if it was you're tachometer you would take the first exit,the irregular heart beat of the last couple of months is whats market volatility
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?Symbol=%24INDU%2c%24INX%2c%24COMPX&CP =0&PT=7
Am I prepared ?Nope a divorce from xbpd/npdw of 24 years ended efforts there.My sons are in a devastated Ohio no work there.
My cabin is in Ky the shell complete commode in,shower in water heater in and drop electric in,winterized nope.
my butt ,girlfriend and her family in SC
so I am spread way out to thin
I work for
:) hint hint making a third of what I was and am grateful for it as I just finished the longest job search of My life.
Am I panicking nope wouldn't do any good,instead ill play the cards dealt as best I can
I went to bed last night with a plan of what to purchase today as Christmas is coming
change plans
no matter what the markets or any other does today
My trip wire has tripped
we all have a certain point where we say time to batten the hatches down.
Today is mine.
working with what resources I have
1 more 22 rounds they are cheap and I have shot the same gun over 45 years Great little game getter.
I want some extra rounds around in case they are hard to get.
2 The pantry Ive been adding to will get a inventory and added to
3 Fill up the old gas tank oil is going back up quick
4 Put in writing to those I love explaining why i see it as a time to prepare and be cool,still enjoy each other and each day.I have delayed doing this as i wanted my credibility high with them when the time came,they know I do My homework
5 while many here are well prepared express to those like myself even a couple of weeks supply of things needed is a good thing giving one a advantage,I am going for 3 months.
while working at smiley face i can assure you there isnt a day or twos inventory on the grounds .
shop by the ounce 5 to 10 cents is my limit and doable
Ps I would love to be wrong

[crafty2002]

I don't see things getting better. Our politicians make false promisies and continue to sell out our country. I can just see it now. Hey China, we want to buy ammo to kick your a$$. Do you think they would go for it. I know what it would take just like every other hard working American to turn things around but we are not going to get it from government. China is the next world power and we owe government for selling out. I have prepared to fight the fight and survive the hardships but I am just a grain of sand surrounded by many without a clue.

Airborne Mac. That's the way I feel too. but I am waking up a few alittle bit. Not a real great deal, but a little bit.
If I only had another 10 years but I am not sure we have another 10 months.
I am praying we have another two years but I don't thing we have that long.
If I can make it two more years I will be in fair shape as well as a lot of friends and family.
I wave been wanting some pigs and goats bad and of course I need an electric fence for that and then I realized what if the electric shuts down.
I have 6 or 8 animals in a fence made of small wire and without the juice they would just walk right through it.
I also want to fence in the garden because of the deer and ground hogs. Without the juice they will be like they were last year and eat more than me.
I even had a fox the night before last or the one before that attacked my cat on the front porch. The cat was luckey enough that I was setting right by the door and it stayed away from the fox til I got to the door and the fox ran as soon as I opened it.
They have already ate all my hens. All but 3 anyway. I gave them to a lady across the street that has a good strong gage for them.

But what is going to bring it on is our on government. They have sold us out by allowing companied to move to other countries and they are the ones that started it to start with.
Nothing but treason. Pure and simple.

[tumbleing_dice]

I want the bottom to fall out NOW as it wont start to get better until then.
Today I read the bottom to me around May of 2009
Treason yes ,betrayal
Sickening

[sethwyo]

I still hope an earth quake or volcano jumps out and says 'Gotcha'.
It is the only thing that will keep the powers that be too busy to be breathing down our pants while we live.

The germans in the 1930's and 40's built some of the best technoligy in the world, some of it still used today, But they ran out of fuel, And everything stoped.
Gas is $1.25 here, and everyone is happy, It has been pointed out that america is about to have a fuel shortage, production problems, By hale turner amoung others. And i wonder if we are about to be invaded by china as we wont be able to run or fight. Sound unrealistic?

Others here have pointed out that no fuel will bring us to our knees, Or to some one elses knees.
And it seems now that it will be fuel that really does us in.
In to whatever the socialist want.
people are losing jobs, Because more people arnt buying junk they dont need.
So the riots will be here soon.
Do we have a year? a year untill what?

[gump]

I don't think it will happen unless the unemployment level reached very high levels, real wage growth stayed near 0% and we some how experienced a major surge in inflation (read huge price spikes again in commodity goods).

I think it will be tough to have a 3 scenarios working at once. The surge in inflation is coming, buy TIPS ;)

[tumbleing_dice]

The bailout keeps getting bigger and Bernard Madoff scandal 50 billion?
the company's that held so much prestige dropping
So much coming in from china and so much work going off shore.
Its not one thing that usually sinks a ship but a series of things going wrong
the big three bailout wont work for years there competitors have a huge head start and dont have the uaw
states,city's and countys in the red
where will the money come from?
I would like to see some accountability

[crafty2002]

Accountability??? What in the world is that for the rich? You heard of the million man march. It would take a 100 million man march on DC with a bad attitude and armed to get that.
I would like to see it too, but I'll never see it in my life time.
But if you stop and think about it, it was really ourselves that did it back when we were younger.
Instead of paying for something that lasted for a lifetime we paid 30-40% for something from Japan and now from China that is dispossible.
Our government should have put huge taxes on those goods waay back then but instead we get NAFTA.
Talking about the Germans, my uncle used to get mad as hell when I wanted to watch Hogans Heros on TV.
He said they were the smartest people on earth and he said that because he fought in WW II against them.
Our government thought they could be the world owner and it has back fired on them. Look who we have for the next president. :o
I just hope I can buy a small diesel tractor, even if I have to make the attachments myself, 4 pigs, 4 goats, a few rabbits, and one more order of chicks before it all drops out. OH yea, and CHINA built screw press to press sunflower seeds for oil to run the tractor on. OK., I also need the fuel to run the tractor for a year to grow enough sunflowers. :-[

[sethwyo]

Ya'll should look for a book that is coming out titled "target patton" By 'robert wilcox' It tells the true story of how the world bankers wore messing with patton to drag the war out, About how patton had accepted the surrender of several ss tank brigades and had them hidden away with other german troops and was collecting arms for them To lead them against the soviets.

The SHTF for germany when the leage of nations gave their country and people over to the soviets, It hit the fan for american soilders who wore taken prisoner by the soviets abandoned by the US military industry and sent to the gulags where they suffered and died.

What is instore for us next?

[tumbleing_dice]

they are well aware what ended the depression was war?

[rAcErRicK]

No predictions from here. Just food for thought. The question was, "how long ?". It has been approximately 8 months since the question was asked, and it was deemed to be of great concern back then. What has happened in those 8 months that is of any value at all in correcting our delima? How many great and wondrous solutions have been deployed since then by the mentally superior and elite problem solvers of our time ? And how is it working so far ?

My suggestion is to stop and think, look around you at the progress, or, in this case, the lack of same, that has been made in those 8 months, and the proposed solutions that are yet to be deployed, and what are they? The common sense folk, (us) see the causes for our problems as being caused from our flagrant violations and the ignoring of our constitution. Are the proposed solutions on the board now to return to, and salvage it? Or to continue to abuse it and trudge onward in the opposite direction, in the pursuit of some other form of government that has failed miserably in other nations in the past ? With the belief that "we" in our infinite wisdom can do a better job of rebuilding it into a better nation? *

IMHO, the answer to the question is very plain, and right before our very eyes, and can be fortold by simply looking at our great and wonderous progress in those 8 months. Who, and what is at the helm. Multiply that on out a year or two and it becomes quite clear, as a falling stone does not slow down as it falls, but rather increases in velocity. We have been on a very long nap, and have woke up in a strange and foreign land, with strange and foreign people in control of our fate. They are not descendants of our forefathers, and posses not their ideals and values, and instead choose to ignore and change them.

If we do not learn from history, we are destined to repeat it. Of two mules pulling a wagon that becomes stuck fast in the mud, I ask you, which mule is it that gets the whip, the one pulling the hardest, or the one that is always the slacker ? Can anyone feel the whip cutting into your flesh now ? Do we feel the blood trickling down yet ? And if not, when will we ? * * * * *

I am fully aware of preaching to the choir, and that the folk on this forum are doing their best to prepare for the worst. I just hope that no one listens to those who call you "chicken little", whether they be family or not, for it is they who will be left without. They have taken the bait, and been lulled into a great sense of false security, and will quickly give up whatever is left of their freedoms for more of the same, dragging you down with them.

Keep alert and aware of your surroundings my brothers and sisters, final exams are coming.... Soon.

[sethwyo]

Ok, the unemployment is about to get really high. grocery stores are closing down, other chain retailers are closing down by the thousands, a husband and wife killed their children and then themselves after loosing their jobs.
water rationing is being discused in some major citys.
the dollar is equal to news paper clipings.
other nations are in really bad shape, (thats when they invade their better off neighbor nations)

the obama is pushing gun removal policies and his public police force.

maby its not as far off as i thought.

[huckelberry]

well um what so um well should i can ummm uh well its only,caint be just caint,ummm welll how can they do that.....so what if ummm no caint be like that,,ill just go ta tha store,um its closed,emty,no caint be so,ill call somebody...what phone dont work,no caint be so,no tv.well what are we to do....wake up folks.......huck ;D

[CanNerd]

I figure we might have a year before TSHTF but the toilet is going to be overflowing a lot up to then. Ain't going to be pleasant.

[MrGreenJeans]

I have to think about this......OK the tidybowl man,s boat it,s a running backard,s in a ever faster motion. As i heard the big swirly,s on it,s way. The cork,s already been pulled. I agree there will be a lot of stuff a rolling over the edge before the clog give,s way. Just hope it,s longer than my gut is telling me.

[sethwyo]

I watched some news over the weekend. im realy suprised at what is going on. 250,000 retail stores closing down in the next few years, or was it in the next year ? how manny yuppies will that unemploy ? more mexicans than ever before coming across the border than ever before because mexico has collapsed and cant feed them anymore, and the border guards not stoping them because they cant jail them anymore.
Anti gun laws that arnt going to go away, stagflation on the way with NO way to reverse it or stop it.
and on , and on . . .

I am amazed at what is happening rather suddenly now from the build up.

the abomo is importing some muslim imigrants,
the border states are getting ready for mexico to invade in a war.
some big citys like L.A are starting to make plans for water rationing.
food supplies are running out worldwide.

And on, And on . . .

[CanNerd]

I'm an L.A. resident and we've been rationing water for years. *Nothing new there. *The illegals are finding no work here and are going back to Mexico. *As bad as it is in Mexico it is further in the toilet here. *Unemployment is 2%-5% higher than the National level and doesn't include those already off the roles. *We're not to worried about Mexico invading us since the Hispanic and Asian populations won't allow it, but right now the Chinese are buying up the properties and businesses because they are so cheap.

No water for the farms; no buying from the businesses, no food distributed by the businesses, etc.

Life is great.

[mdcreekmore]

We are crashing now. Everyone is looking for the bolt out of the blue, where we wake up one morning and the government and economy have crashed and anarchy is the rule of the land.

It truth is will be a long drown out process, where things will continually become worse over time. But the farther into the collapse the faster things will happen.

[idris]

I reckon that it already has hit the fan; it is just taking a while to fly around and hit a few folk in the face, then a little while longer before they wake up to what it is. Then, sit back, well out of the way, and watch the fun: natural justice will dole out want to them that were greedy, while the rest will be satisfied for having little, but without having to struggle so hard to keep it. But this is just my opinion. Pity! Could have been better if folk had behaved better. Seen it coming since about 1970 something.

[sethwyo]

I didnt really realize that america is owned by other nations untill recently, When we give a million or a billion to some nation that is more backward than we are, we arnt really giving to them out of a surplus, but only endebting ourselfs to them.
This is because we dont own any money of our own, all of our money is only on loan from the private banks, we owe them every cent we have, PLUS interest.
So if there is a million trillion dollars, Which has in fact been loaned to america by the privat banks that are sometimes called the federal treasury, we owe them that, plus 10% interest, Where are we going to get a hundred thousand trillion dollars to pay the private banks back for the money we have borowed ?
People are ENRAGED that the government didnt give each little american $80,000 insted of giving it to the banks to stop the economic melt down,
'That money SHOULD have been give to the people ! ! ! people like me ! ' they snarl.
they dont see that the more money is Made and given away the worse the problem becomes, if every american would have gotten a share of the $700 billion, a gallon of milk, water, or gas would now be costing a few thousand dollars.

"But we could pay our bills and feed our starving children !"
they cry.

I worked with a labor crew, every morning they wanted to stop at the store and get cola cigerets and junk food, they would spend $10 + each.
then at noon they all needed more cola, cigerets and junk or fast drive through food, another $10+ . then on the way home, more of the same and a few cases of beer to split up. They wore spending $30 + a day on nothing but cola, cigerets and junk food, In a month they wore spending around $1000 each on NOTHING but booze, cigerets, and junk food.
They all wanted more money, NEEDED more money, as they wore always broke and having trouble paying their bills.

I only have met one person who even understands what the bailouts really wore.
they can only see that some one got some money for nothing, but not them, they cant understand that the only thing that happend was america was endebted more and they cant ever pay it back.

[cwatson]

OMG someone finally said it as it is.

[mdcreekmore]

Any day now. Or is it already happening?

[sethwyo]

it would be nice to know.

obama is not the president. he is not A president.
When i go over the facts conserning this to people, they dont really even care, no one cares about anything meaningful.

Glenn beck demonstrated how our dollar has become worthless with the recent mass printing of it, thats going to hit us sooner than later.

police are buying up ammo ( thats what caused part of the ammo shortage ) and traning with sub machine guns, becoming more Militarized, they dont care whats really right or wrong, the patriot act sets all law breakers as terrorist, And they are going to live out their murderous bloody fantisys with citizens.

the unemployment rate.
the illigal immigrants.
the state sponsored terrorist.
the globalist.
the economic melt down.
the insane speeple who will turn every one in and rat them out.
chemocal toxins in everything we eat or drink.
chemtrails.
antigun laws.
Obama.

its here.
what or who will save us ?

[offroaddiesel]

shtf, hits the fan ,hmmm look at this country and then ask your self that ?
this just didnt happen over nite ,its been in the plans for a long time . we know or lest some of us know whats going on but what do you do about it . last year oil was so high what did we do , not much.. to a lot of americans the s---- has already hit. and will get worse, there is no future for them. steve

[crafty2002]

It isn't when it is going to start. It's more like when did it start. It's already on a good rool and getting bigger by the minute.

And you are right about people ratting others out. I had a search warrant served on me because of someone on this very forum calling the police because I said I had killed and canned a deer. It was in season, I have a hunting licence, but I was 200 yards from the county line and dropped it with a single shot from a .22 .
If I did take it, I never would have taken the shot if I didn't know it was a safe and sure kill but he same person that turned me in said she had to chase a buck into the night to find it.
But I am a poacher. Sheeple are friging nuts. And that is an epidemic in this country.
I have a god hand full of people to help work the 20 acres back here this year. We are going to plant as much as we can and pray it's enough till next year, and God help anyone caught in the garden or the chicken coop or anywhere else back there.
At least I stood strong enough to run the drug dealers off the corner after we moved in and then on down the road a bit more. Word around here is I am a damned nut. ;D
I ain't really but as long as they thing I am, we all happy.
For right now, I am running out of fingers to count up the people I know that is iether laid off or on short time.
TS has already HTF from my point of view. And it's gonna get worse before it gets better.
It will until we attack Washington. I am just waiting for someone to give the word.
CHARGE

[Cutter]

The fuse is lit and when it blows it will be some incident that causes the cities like L.A. N.Y. and all the other areas with a large unemployed population that start to riot. This will cause food deliveries to stop and when the rioting gangs get hungry they will move on to other communities and take what they have. There will be no police or first responders because they will stay home to protect their families. The Military will take the weapons they can get and go home to their families.
I think we are down to the last few weeks of normal life. It's coming soon. Get prepared and have a plan. Have food, ammo and a place you can defend or you will be a statistic. Get a copy of the book PATRIOTS by James Westley Rawles and read it for an idea of whats coming. Time is short.

[offroaddiesel]

the revolution has already started,a little late but it has started, look around and see the crime going on , this time the media cant say it the druggies ,its people surving the only way they can.if we stick together we have a chance but they will divid us by any means possible. steve

[WileyCoyote]

How long will it be untill the police start to arrest people
for 'hording' food, and sezing food? A law will be made for that too..

There is already a law made for that. It is called Martial Law. Once it is declared in an area, LEOs can confiscate anything including food and water and ammo stockpiles. The folks in IA who were 20, 30 miles from the flood zones had LEOs at their doors and their supplies confiscated. What happens when the riots begin and the whole country - or at least the heavily populated areas - are put under Martial Law?

I forsee pandemics of astronomical proportions, simply because folks will be grouped together in poor conditions, sharing or stealing everything from blankets to food that shouldn't be eaten. When some start eating whatever they can find - including vermin - and others are simply looking for their next fix, groups and gangs and families too will be infected. Again, the declarance of Martial Law, and thousands will die in the streets under the bullets, in the dark hovels and 'weekly rent' motels, and from vast sweeping transmitted infections.

But I don't forsee it happening until next winter when the hopeyfeeleychangers have finally run out of promises and money, and get so much flak from their followers that they throw up their hands and scream, "Everyone just SHUT UP!" and start enforcing all of their happy changes whether we want them or need them or not - at the business ends of SWAT teams' and National Guardsmen's rifles. The media will of course support this as they did the attack on the Weavers and Waco, telling everyone that those people are bad evil nasty lawbreakers who are trying to kill others with their weapons and diseases.

I'm sorry, I don't buy the whole - "people are doing what they need to survive" - if you are taking from others by force or by fraud, you are a criminal, I don't give a D**n how hungry you are. And you deserve a criminal's reward - a dose of lead poisoning. If you were a grasshopper who played through the whole summer of your life and didn't see it coming, you don't have the right to take from the ants just because you 'need' to survive or are hungry when the winter of our dissolution comes. I need to survive and I am doing all I can, without taking from anyone else. If you can't - Darwin rules. No sympathy here.

The Weavers and Waco were just practice to see how far they could go with the American public. Now the fanatical hopeyfeeleychangers will push that arrogance to the limit, under the guise of "saving us all".

As the Irish bridegroom said, "Brrrrrrrrrrrace yeself, Brrrrrridget!"- the foreplay is over.

[Grizzy]

Wiley... I couldn't have said it better. We just have to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.. We have to build our bunker in deed and faith.

Grizzy

[IndianaWoodsman]

Wiley, you're right-on on most points. But I feel like this is going to start before the end of this summer. There are more and more "tea parties" happening across the country on a weekly basis and each one gets bigger. Two weekends ago there was a tax protest march in Cincinati that had around 1000 in attendence. This past weekend there was one, I think in Florida, that breeched 10,000. There are talks about a group going to DC to protest on the Whitehouse steps; that one scares me. The larger the groups get the more likely that someone in the crowd may get rowdy and then LEO's will show up. You can bet that 100,000 country folk showing up in DC whould get every LEO in the nation put on stand-by. What I see happening eventually, if not in DC, then somewhere else, is that one hot-headed young cop with an ego to feed will push the wrong person back behind the imaginary line on the pavement and that wrong person is going to 'haul iron'. As soon as he starts the movement the cop is going to start pulling and it will be a chain-reaction across the area on both sides. If a shot is fired that will be the start of a civil war. If, by some miracle nobody gets shot, it will still be utter chaos.

Even if this scenario doesn't play out there are others and something is going to happen soon. Look at the MOA's. They are protected by the Constitution that is no longer used to protect me. I have heard mutterings of a group of people that is watching them hard.

What about a massive depression being the only thing that hits us? Then u have Wiley's POV.

With all of the possibilities you need to remember a key point: When the fat bully is getting sick in the schoolyard, the smallest kid that he has picked on is going to run up and kick the bully in the stomach.

[pcrowder]

Wiley - your wisdom speaks volumes. I think we are closer to it than anyone really wants to admit - there is alot of denial out there, but more and more people are waking up to the insanity of it all. *A trillion here, a trillion there, three trillion over there......and no money to pay for it. Cap and trade, exhorbitant taxation, inflation, rationing, martial law -- it's ALL coming...people just can't fathom it, because most of the people in this country have never had to try to live under this kind of insanity. Every day that ticks by, we are getting closer to the end....prepare now, like it's your last chance to do so....................because it probably is.

[IndianaWoodsman]

Remember the little boy who cried wolf? Doomsayers have cried wolf so many times that Americans don't believe it anymore. Most of the population is living like 9/10/01. We need to be living and thinking like we were on 9/12/01.

[WileyCoyote]

Sorry, but I think that the 'tea parties' and other groups are too little, too late. 20 years ago - yes, there could have been a voice and a persuasion. But folks were too busy getting all they could get from the gubbermint, and now we have whole generations of folks who are gubbermint dependent. I also believe that there are members of the gubbermint who are fueling the "protest" solely for their own political ends; pushing the Conspiracy Theories while decrying them in public. *Too much has been 'revealed' to inspire anger and rage, and the protestors want "change" but will be led gap-mouthed toward an even more powerful oligarchy instead.

You make a good point about the Washington trip. It is that very dread that the oligarchists want to inspire. When I went to Savannah, GA, for the G8 summit, there were military folk everywhere, even on the river and in helicopters. *Huge cement barriers blocked access to every government building. Every soldier, every cop, was slung with rifles and ammo. IT was MEANT to be intimidating "and was there for our protection from terrorists". Yeah, right. I ended up having my picture taken with literally hundreds of soldiers and cops, (I was dressed as the Statue of Liberty) and getting invited to the cops' barbeque. Meanwhile, the folks who (surreptitiously asking me) took most of our brochures were the soldiers and cops who agreed with what we said, but could not be seen by their superiors to do so. Many of our group refused to come to the meeting because they were terrified that there would be violence!

But in a purposely inflammatory situation, and I emphasize the "purposefully", there will be people killed. The hundreds of thousands of folks who will be out protesting this time come nowhere near the millions of hopeyfeeleychangers who voted for and deathlessly believe in what even Newsweek boldly calls 'our new socialism'. The protestors who will be killed will serve two purposes - they will become martyrs for an underground terrorist sect, and will make the hopeyfeeleychangers feel as though they are on the RIGHT path, and have nothing in common with those terrorist militia loons. It WILL split this country and will devastate it - but the guys with the tanks and the guns (and the main body of the 'sane and deliberate and thoughtful' followers) will 'win'. *

When you are rational, the people who are emotionally driven will decry you. They WANT the violent bipolar emotional swings, and the politicians will give it to them. They will serve the 'tea party' people up on platters to the masses, hoping and PRAYING that one rebellious soul will start a shooting match that he cannot win. Upheaval is the best time in which to enforce an even stronger grasp on the sheeple, for their own good, through force and fear. On April 15th, if it al goes off, the hopeyfeeleychangers will become even MORE devoted, even MORE Fanatical, and they will have a direction for their angst and anger - pointed straight at the people who are trying to protest what they believe in, desperately.

Me, I'm going to sit quietly in my little hole that not even the government nor the Weather Channel has any idea exists, and watch the hysteria mount. I tried for 25 years to convince people what was coming, and all they did was smile indulgently or ridicule me. And the very ones who are leading the charge now are the ones who did everything they could to discredit me and mine. Do you really think they have suddenly 'gotten religion' - or is it more likely that they have figured out a way to manipulate this unrest to their own ends? Glenn Beck was one of the media folk who insisted that Ron Paul was naive and fiscally unaware, and that his wealthy Mormon hero with a mouthful of sugar-sopping platitudes was the best choice to lead our country. Yawn. Not buying his 'conversion' now.

All that said, what happens in the media spotlight is going to be far removed from what happens in the homes, neighborhoods, and communities all across this nation. The media will point fingers at everyone except their darlings, and the people who work for a lving will be caught in the voiceless, endless, bottomfeeding scuffle of loss and slow starvation. It startled me to read that Phoenix AZ is the 2ndmost kidnapping capital of the WORLD - second only behind Mexico City. What does that tell you about our country and how fast it is slipping? I still don't foresee the happy joy joy wearing off until gas prices rise and homes are unheated, more jobs than ever lost, and food cannot be shipped to satisfy the cities' needs; until they have to pull the plug on Welfare and thousands of the hopeyfeeleychangers, their loyalty crushed, their faith decimated, and their god 'exposed' as an uncaTom who gave in. When he makes the choice to become the dictator - "forced" into it by not only the "militia-minded rebels" but by his own supporters - then we will see the true colors of all... too late, as always, too late.

It could have been changed, but everyone insisted that the Emperor was wearing clothes, Was SO, WAS SO! - for far too long.

[CanNerd]

I can't agree more! And we have not seen anything yet. I'm not able to find a safer haven, even if I thought it would be beneficial for more than short term, so I've said for years that I plan on putting my lawn chair out on the front yard and watch the "fun" from there as long as possible, perhaps with a shotgun across my lap.

In my area, if the Sunday paper is not delivered on time there is street rioting. This is Los Angeles. Sneeze at the wrong moment on the freeway and it is taken as a threat and you can find yourself shot. I cannot comprehend it being worse than previous rioting, but it will and make the past look like a birthday party.

[Kelleysvt]

I have mixed feelings about this. I agree that, to a certain degree it has already started. However I think it also depends more on peoples responses than it does on any particular event.
Yes - the global economy is beyond shaky right now but most people still seem to believe that we can take care of each other and work our way through this. The problem will come when more people need help than are offering it. I think we're really pushing the bounds of that right now. The bottom line is that American's can't continue to be self centered parasitic consumerists. Those of us who have realized that things need to change will be ahead of the game. I'm talking here about the need to keep up with the Joneses type of consumerism - just consuming because stuff is available.
Basically when SHTF there will be two groups - those who are prepared and those who aren't. Those who aren't prepared won't even know where to go or what to do. They will be blindsided by it. In their shock and confusions they will start (and have already started) by blaming the wealthy and focusing their frustration on the rich and powerful. They will turn to the same avenues Americans have for a hundred years - the government and charities. Once they realize these institutions can't help them they will run to the churches and local communities. Only after that has happened do I feel that we will be in real danger. I may be 100% wrong. I'm still pretty new to this whole preparedness culture and mindset. My biggest concern, as a relative newcomer, is that we won't be fully prepared/transitioned when the time comes and we will find ourselves at least partially on the "unprepared" list (ohh - I feel a new thread coming on...).

[CanNerd]

Which is why the 'unprepared' (and perhaps us too) are probably going to be loaded on to prepared buses and taken to internment/confinement camps which have recently been officially turned over to FEMA and Homeland Security. This has been going on all over the world for several years now, preparing, as if the governments know exactly when and what is ahead.

Personally I hope I can avoid them like the plague.

[rAcErRicK]

As to the validity of this, I do not know, but I think it bares the read. Be sure to read the 9th paragraph.

http://www.backwoodshome.com/forum/yabb/forum.pl?board=per-currentevents;action=display;num=1237779412

[WileyCoyote]

Yup Racer RIck. But I don't really see a whole lot of resistance. Sorry, but I don't. I know and have met many peope who are screaming bloody murder about their guns, their rights, their property, their children - but when faced with a choice of living under the thumb of a dictatorial governement or death, most people will make the 'rational' decision. These very people will be the ones to turn traitor to their neighbors and friends, even family, to get a little extra on their own plates. They will see THAT as 'survivalism'.

Sorry, but there are so many folks whom I just LOOK at and think quietly, "Squealer" - because they rant and rave and protest in their meetings, on the 'Net, and bar junkets, yet live in a comfortable home with a spouse (who does NOT participate or believe in what the protestor is saying in public), those who rarely have guns or go hunting or have a BOB or have made ANY plans whatsoever to 'prepare'. They are the loudest ones of all, though. If they are not 'plants' from the FedGov, they are Quislings, Benedict Arnolds, looking for the fame of being in the protest leadership so that they can hang the whole group. Because of their presence, as well as the presence of armed SWAT teams and BATF bruisers, and the media behind them talking about "This terrible home-grown terrorist/cult/militia, from whom our loyal Feds are SAVING us" - a LOT of people faced with this will NOT protest, will NOT make changes, will NOT make demands nor even pleas. They will count themselves lucky if they can survive to eke out a meager living and get a handful of food a week, as proscribed by their loving and protective government. Because the alternative IS death... and so they will be told.

I don't want it to happen. I hope it doesn't. But I am not so stupid to watch things unfold and insist to myself that I am misinterpreting what I am seeing. I WANT to sit here and grow my own food and raise whatever animals I want and live my life unmolested. But I just don't foresee that. And the latest ranting, self-representing saviours coming forth won't be martyrs - but they will make martyrs of their followers.

[rAcErRicK]

Wiley C, we are in total agreement. I too, expect this, exactly as you describe. There is a very truthful vid on this exact thing, but it has foul language, and I do not agree with the title selection, and for that reason, cannot recommend it on this board. When someone seeks answers, I cannot resist trying to help.

[sethwyo]

i rember seeing a video about the gun confincation in the aftermath of katrina, preachers and pastors wore telling their flocks (of sheeples) to turn in their guns to the blackwater agents.
a preacher was being interviewed about it, he had his head tilted back and said through a sick smile " I told them lets get this crisis over with, THEN deal with our issues "

i wish someone would have asked him how turning in guns was going to stop the crisis ?

an absence of guns would not cause the flood waters to resed.

its about people control, and people who like to control and dominate other peoples lives are the most horrible type of people there is.
im wanting others to stand for what i believe in also, because i dont want to be alone, but i will be.
most of the people who have posted here will be.

people dont want to be free, throuout the centries people have demanded that they be owned and controled by some elite group to promise them security.

so TSHTF already, what are we going to do ? we are in the middle of it. where do we go ? what do we do ?

[martinemyers]

tshtf will never happen unless a large comet or asteroid hits the planet, and that's the only way the government will lose control, they are simply to powerful, what difference does rifles make again bombs? if a swat team can't for some reason take you out (remember waco, they tried to storm the building but with enough rifle fire they were repelled temporary, but they simply waited them out, the end result will still be the same) and if they want to do it quick 1 cruise missile fired from 200 miles away would have ended the "threat" right then and there. in the long run the only thing a person can do is adapt to the situation the best they can. Thou, the the idea of working in some shit factory job for communist america doesn't sound appealing.

[sethwyo]

Yesterday a person was arrested for shoplifting, He was stealing food to feed his children.
he is portraid by the media as the victim.

The survivilist and writer Duncan long was once being interviewed by some reporter, the reporter wanted to make the story SINsational by maing it about a food hording gun nut who would kill any poor starving children who might wander onto his property during a crisis, 'Why do you store food ?' the reporter questioned, wanting to make it appear that the survivalist horded food to cause others to starve,

long replied 'I feel that it is immoral to live a lifestyle that will require you to steal from others to feed yourself and your family'

A lot of people are coming out west from michigan, their 'Self suficent economy' isnt working out for them, i went through CDL traning school with on of them, he moved his family out here looking for a job, he couldnt find one so he comes to cdl school to open himself up to a bigger job market.

He has a cdl now, and is still wailing about how No one will GIVE him a job, yet he has in fact been turning down jobs.

BECAUSE, they are only offering him $14 to $15 an hour. And he dosnt work for $14 an hour, NOR will he work 60-70 hours a week as they want.

He complains to the people at the workforce cdl school, " I moved my family out here to find work I dont work for $14 an hour I have a family to support I need some one to give me a job " (all things that he has actually said)

another would not get a cdl because he needed to pay the $40 fee for his DOT test, he drinks and smokes away that much in a week, but wont pay it to get a cdl because he wanted someone else to pay for it,
'give me the money I need to get my cdl I cant get my cdl without that money" he wined to everyone at the collage and workforce center.
then he announced to everyone -
"I guess i wont be getting a cdl and ill never have a job now because no one will pay for my test "

They gloat in their 'im helpless no one will help me' situation they have made for themselves.
like the shoplifter who tells the reporters " when it comes to me being in prison or my kids starving im going to be in prison, Thats the way it will be"

its emotional blackmail, and the media cant bleed enough for them, No one ever asks him ' and while you are heroicly living in prison,for only trying to feed your starving children, Who will be caring for your children ?

people can live like the grasshopper, then when winter comes they can steal from the ant AND be the victim, they get patted on the head, and told 'There there you poor thing' you hafto do what you hafto do.
The ant gets its hill bulldozed and is stomped to death.

How long has it been acceptable for people to have children that they cannot care for ? they cant feed or care for themselfs BUT they have kids, THEN are praised for surrering in poverty and made into heros for stealing,

While the people who are working to provide for themselfs and take care of their own are vilinized.

A survivalist in montana taught his kids from the cradle to plant and produce food, And to handle firearms.
"It's going to be us against everyone someday " he told them.

Against Everyone

kill a starvling or a gang of them, OR only run them off at gun point, and the authoritys will soon be there, kill one authority personal,and 300 will come to the funeral and the media will turn the whole nation against you.

When their food is gone and they are comming for what you have, and you need to decide what to do, TSHTF. thats
when its all going to go splat

[pcrowder]

the authoritys will soon be there, kill one authority personal,and 300 will come to the funeral and the media will turn the whole nation against you.

When their food is gone and they are comming for what you have, and you need to decide what to do, TSHTF. thats
when its all going to go splat

This will NOT HAPPEN if you follow the S.S.S. rule.

[cwatson]

Okay what is the S.S.S. rule?

[Mister_Mxyzptlk]

Okay what is the S.S.S. rule?

I suspect it is the "Shoot, Shovel and Shut Up" rule. If you kill something that could get you in trouble, like an endangered rat, you dig a hole, bury it and don't tell anyone. Because once two people know something, it wont be a secret for much longer.

[sethwyo]

We have all heard the people who declair that they want to
'Die very quickly and very sudenly' in a nuclear war or other disaster.
"I wouldnt want to live through it" they say while smiling, "i would want to die right away, i dont want to prepair I would rather die instantly "

we have all heard this from people.
they want it to all end in a instant flash and they will not even know what hit them, But they have nothing to garrante their painless instant departure and in the comming caos they WILL NOT sit around chuckling to themselfs about how smart they are.
the system that supports their lifes will be destroyed, then they will start to suffer,
consider that along with how ignorant and mentaly warped they are already.
If nothing else, Consider How people are, think of the way that people are.
How long does it take to dig a hole big enough ?

How many holes can you dig ?

[Mister_Mxyzptlk]

they say while smiling, "i would want to die right away, i dont want to prepair I would rather die instantly"

Why would you want to live in some post apocalyptic world? If you want to live in a third world country there are plenty of places you could move to today to have that kind of fun. Poor sanitation, bad water and no police protection. Your preparedness money could go a lot farther in one of those third world countries.

So what's keeping you? Why wait for the end here when those same conditions exist already in places with better growing seasons and cheep margaritas?

[Anon001]

and no police protection.
There is no police protection. Even the Supreme court ruled that a law enforcement officer's duty did not involve keeping us safe. The case hasn't been all that long ago.

I can't remember the details but someone sued a police department for not prtoecting them when they were injured. It went all the way to the supreme court.

Therefore, we have no police protection. I take it upon myself to protect me and my property.

[Mister_Mxyzptlk]

There is no police protection. *Even the Supreme court ruled that a law enforcement officer's duty did not involve keeping us safe. *The case hasn't been all that long ago.

There is a world of difference between the US where the police are not legally liable for failing to protect you and what they have in the third world where police at best serve the wealthy and ignore the plight of the middle class and poor completely.

The point of my post was if one is romanticizing the "Post Apocalyptic World" and you demean those who wouldn't want to survive to live in one then why wait for it? The third world is out there ready and waiting. The dollar is still strong enough, one could buy quite a bit of the apocalypse in Zimbabwe for what you spend on a backpack here.

There are many of us who wouldn't want to survive a complete breakdown of civil order in this nation. I require a handful of medications just to be moderately comfortable. Without those meds I would be miserable. I'd rather be consumed in the fireball than have to scavenge in the ruins afterward.

[sethwyo]

The fireball wont consume very many, By %'s.
The biggest bomb ever built would only cover a squar mile with its blast, with about a few miles beyond that affected by the shock wave and radation.

the yeller rock volcano will do quite a number when it goes.

In lousiana people had no water and food stocks, And no skills, when TSHTF there, they didnt set down and say," well were going to die ! Yaaaa! we dont want to live anymore so we'll die now !"
many became desparat looters rapest and murders, They killed and stold (even some police officers did) they wore looking for food and water above all else, This was small scale in a small area.
But what would it be like there today if walmart and the red cross and the military had Not went there and cleaned up and restored order, Giving out food and water ?
What would that area be like today ?

Americans are very ignorant, skilless lazy selfish and mean.
they wont die instantly and painlessly the way they would like. thats only something they tell themselvs to justify NOT being prepaired and productive, its a way of ignoring responsibility for themselvs and their familys.

I dont want to scroung dumps, loot stores and murder to live from day to day in the comming colapse.
SO
Im learning skills, collecting tools and equipment, and building a place to grow crops.

Im also using forms like this one to meet like minded folks, to present my ideas and learn from others.

[Mister_Mxyzptlk]

Americans are very ignorant, skilless lazy selfish and mean.

Seems very insulting. Why do you stay in a country filled with unskilled, lazy, selfish and mean people? Why not pack up and start surviving today in lovely Somalia. There is no burdonsome government, no taxation and no icky first world rules. Your post SHTF world is already there. SHTF many years ago for them. They are livin' the dream.

[logansackett]

sethwyo- I don't normally respond to these kinds of remarks,
(Americans are very ignorant, skilless lazy selfish and mean)
Um what nationality are you?

[Anon001]

sethwyo- I don't normally respond to these kinds of remarks,
(Americans are very ignorant, skilless lazy selfish and mean)
Um what nationality are you?
I think if seth had expounded,.... I see the majority of the American populous in cities. Most people are skilless as far as they don't have any skills to survive a SHTF scenario. Also, they are lazy. The majority of them spend more time in front of a TV or computer (oops..... me?) than working and using or learning skills and don't want to do more. Most Americans are very selfish. They want their due. They want to be paid for doing little or no work. They want to have what others have without working for it. But, there are good people, too.

[Mister_Mxyzptlk]

Most people are skilless as far as they don't have any skills to survive a SHTF scenario.

I was hanging out on another SHTF board a while back and they assured me that anyone with a college degree has shown an amazing amount of ability and would quickly learn what was necessary to survive in the rugged Post Apocalyptic World. They felt that people who didn't have college degrees were lazy useless people who didn't have the drive to achieve and would die in droves.

I'm still not sure which opinion is right.

Also, they are lazy. *Most Americans are very selfish. *They want their due. They want to be paid for doing little or no work. *They want to have what others have without working for it.

You have described humanity. Not one nationality. Humans are greedy, lazy, selfish monkeys.

[CanNerd]

Those "lazy useless" un-college-educated people are the backbone of most cultures and, as a group, work harder than the lazy higher-educated people. *;D

"Schooling" doesn't really indicate the education and intelligence of people, especially in this age where kids are pushed through the education system as a number rather than an individual person. *The motivated person learns on their own, whether in school or beyond, and go on to succeed in everything they do. *Others stop learning when they are no longer required to do so and will take the easy road down life.

My best friend, now getting in to his 80's, quite school at 9th grade, having no interest in schooling or learning new things. *That mentality carried him his whole life. *What he "believes" (including religion) is what he has created in his own mind and nothing else. *It's fun and frustrating talking to him. *I show him factual information and he doesn't believe any of it. *He will not be a survivor and probably not meant to be because of his age now.

Oh yah, I'm one of those college-educated ones and I'm very lazy now because I've retired and turned the baton over to the younger generation to screw it up even more. I do my motivations now within the confines of my home, the Internet, and my workshop garage and backyard.

[Anon001]

CanNerd... I don't know about the others, but when I refer to the lazy, I am not referring to the uneducated that toils with their hands and their backs or in the soil. *I am referring those in the city that go to an office, come home, sit in front of the TV until bedtime, go to bed, get up, go to an office, come home, sit in front of the TV until bedtime....etc....etc.... You get the gist. *They don't normally take time to read or continue learning. *They veg out. *To me that is laziness and being unproductive where it matters. *They are the ones that bury their heads in the sand and think nothing will happen and that as long as they can go to an office they can earn enough money to get them through any crisis....if, in their mind, a crisis ever develops. *They are the ones that will be left behind and lost in a worst case SHTF scenario. *

P.S. I'm saying this applies to everyone working white collar jobs. There are many that are still "stuck" there but, are trying to make the change and learn ad adapt and dream and plan.... that's a different person altogether.

[Mister_Mxyzptlk]

Those "lazy useless" un-college-educated people are the backbone of most cultures and, as a group, work harder than the lazy higher-educated people.

That was my argument. They accused me of "wanting to see the pyramid inverted" or some such nonsense. Of course, the fact that the guy who commented on the value of the educated was a lawyer and may have reacted badly to my calling lawyers and accountants, "useless people in a post apocalyptic world".

[sethwyo]

Due to the ignore function here, i dont see everything that is being said, But as for edumucation, i dont have a high school deploma.

I do however, have an education, this is why i work with my hands and back and mind.

Those who have not learned from history are damed to relive it.

[rockymtngirl]

I can see the viewpoint of white collar laziness and perhaps even greed. It is only the awakened that are pursuing this idea of educating themselves in what many of us view as important in this time and place.
I do not have a college educ. but I work in white collar job and have for many years - and I do think that this area of the job force tends toward the assumption that everything will be fine.
Guess I am just 1) defending the few white collar folks I know that are attempting to get their stuff together and 2) I also think there are likely some non white collar folks that think all will be ok as well so they just go on their merry way with out planning etc.
JMO

Rocky

[Anon001]

I can see the viewpoint of white collar laziness and perhaps even greed. *It is only the awakened that are pursuing this idea of educating themselves in what many of us view as important in this time and place.
I do not have a college educ. but I work in white collar job and have for many years - and I do think that this area of the job force tends toward the assumption that everything will be fine.
Guess I am just 1) defending the few white collar folks I know that are attempting to get their stuff together and 2) I also think there are likely some non white collar folks that think all will be ok as well so they just go on their merry way with out planning etc.
JMO

Rocky
I think you said it better than anyone else could have... What you said about the white collar workers is what I was trying to say. I agree with everything you wrote.

[sethwyo]

anything yet ? its been almost two years now and i getting tired of waiting

[CapeCMom]

The Economic SHTF has been stalled due to the amount of manipulation in the markets. It can only last so long.

Do you really want it to now? The longer it is delayed the better prepared you will be.
I don't think anyone really wants it-but you can head off the storm and be ever vigilant.

[Cherokeewoman]

I am afraid that it is closer than we think. Take a look at how fast things are changing. We stand up and yell we don't want this done or that done and the goverment does it any way and tells us "you will get use to it". We are in a world of hurt people. I am afraid for my grand children and what the world holds for them. God bless us all and God be with the USA.

[Gemglo]

The Economic SHTF has been stalled due to the amount of manipulation in the markets. It can only last so long.

Do you really want it to now? The longer it is delayed the better prepared you will be.
I don't think anyone really wants it-but you can head off the storm and be ever vigilant.


Completely agree with you.

I prefer it to delay as long as possible, so I have more time to get ready. I have about a million more things to do, but I'm just taking them one at a time.

Jennifer

[patience]

1) Housing market is trash, and Commercial Real Estate is crumbling.
2) Banks that hold home mortgages and CRE paper are in deep trouble. The FDIC has over 700 on their troubled list.
3) Most banks in the US are effectively insolvent, but the FDIC lacks enough auditors to liquidate them, as reported in one of their internal meetings.
4) That doesn't matter, because the FDIC is broke anyway, and in hock to the govt. about $80 billion as of the first of 2010, IIRC.
5) The govt. is broke, and almost unable to borrow for the record deficit, since I read that for the last month of 2009, ALL of the new US Treasury borrowing (bonds) were sold to "indirect bidders"-a euphemism generally taken to mean that the Federal Reserve Bank bought it all. They created some digital money and plunked right down for the govt. to spend--with nothing backing that money = direct monetization of the govt. debt. Down that rabbit hole lies currency collapse, at some point.
6) The increase in GDP vs govt deficit "stimulus" (= spending) has gone to MINUS 27%. That is, for every dollar the govt. spends on stimulus, the GDP is FALLING 27%. The idea of "spending our way out of the depression" is not working. The system has to cleanse itself of bad debts, which means a lot of banks go down the tubes.

If we take a look around the US, there are areas that are hurting bad right now. California, Illinois, and other states are laying off teachers, firemen, policemen, because they can't pay them. REAL unemployment is probably around 20% to 22% right now. Detroit is a ghost town. No reason to belabor the point.

Some areas of the US aren't in nearly so bad a shape, but to those who have lost jobs, homes, and are on the street, that is small comfort. There are examples just down the road from me. That's the way I see it going down-certain areas are okay, some are devastated. I expect that pattern to continue. More problems are coming, due to the list above, as less credit-money is available to prop it all up.

We are in the midst of asset devaluation and credit contraction, both of which mean lower prices for things bought on credit, but other prices are going up, for the things we buy with cash or card-gas, groceries, home heating energy, electricity, and imports of many kinds. Back in the late 1970's and early 1980's, they called that "stagflation". I expect to see more of that.

Massive govt. spending worked in the past, to "prime the pump", but that isn't working now. Aslo, we are at, or past the peak of world oil prduction rates. We may find more oil, and have some for a long time, but not in the quantities we have seen before. What oil remains is harder to find and more costly to get it out. If our economy could recover, we lack the energy to recover.

I expect the govts. and central banks in many countries to try to stave off collapse as long as possible, lest they be deposed in favor of any liar that promises to do better. So, we will see more efforts to stave off the inevitable. Inflating the currency is coming up soon. ALL fiat currencies fail to inflation.

But that time is not yet. It may be starting. I do believe that we are over the crest of the big hill on this roller coaster ride, and that it is a long way to the bottom. It could take years, or a couple decades, I don't know. Or we could have a "fast crash" and have the world financial system fall apart is a matter of days, or hours. This hasn't happened on a global scale before, so nobody really knows. We came very close-within hours they say, of a global meltdown last year. High level talks and desperate measures held it off for a while, but nothing was solved. All the credit mess is still there, just covered up.

The US agriculture system depends on oil to run, and the oil comes from people who don't like us very much. Likewise for transportation, home heating, electrical generation (to a significant degree), and what manufacturing we have left.

GM and Chrysler are bankrupt, and all the supporting industries are on the way. I get auction flyers for lots of machine shops, machinery dealers, and whole factories going on the block. Those have slowed down, now, since there aren't many left to sell out. Within the past year, half a dozen factories within 20 miles of where I live has gone bust. Those jobs aren't coming back. 7 out of 10 hardwood sawmills in this area are closed. Our county hospital went bankrupt and was bought by one in Louisville , KY, 40 miles away.

My retirement business has gone from 2008 average weekly receipts of $650 to current weekly receipts of around $180, then seemed to stabilize. We have Social Security, too, but if that goes, or inflation takes off, we have a problem.

The crash is here. It is simply still going in slow motion. As CapeCMom said, be thankful for that, and use the opportunity to dig in.

[NCLee]

The crash is here. It is simply still going in slow motion. As CapeCMom said, be thankful for that, and use the opportunity to dig in.

Well said. And, I agree that it's here. We're just not seeing a big boom, crash, or headlines.

Instead, we're seeing it in little things. All those empty spaces on the grocery store shelves. Why all those wider isles at WalMart?

Got a letter the other day, from our homeowners insurance company. Been with them since 1966. They will not be renewing our policy in a few months because they'll no longer insure mobile homes in NC.

Gasoline prices creeping up.

Adding government jobs, census takers and such hiding the real unemployment rate figures for productive jobs.

Wouldn't be surprised that in additon to the inflation favors coming into play that we'll soon be seeing a value added tax and/or a national sales tax. In European countries VAT is adding an additional 15-20% in hidden taxes to the prices of everything.

Our local newspaper keeps cutting column widths from the paper. Less and less information, yet the price of the paper keeps going up.

Other than the fast/convenience food "junk" more and more brands and products are suddenly disappearing from the shelves completely. The owner of a small mom and pop type place tells me that he can't order some things because his suppliers have dropped them from their inventory. He's scrambling to find other sources, including trying to order some on line.

Yes, I'm afraid it's already here. It's just going to gradually get worse, with periodically some large event, taking the spotlight for a while.

Just my 2-cents, this morning on the way I see it now.

Lee

[CapeCMom]

You guys are right on the money-there has been two very big pieces of legislation passed in the past week that Obama signed that are huge signals. I am trying to wrap my head around them before I post links in the Politics section. The ramifications are enormous and I don't feel I can start a conversation about them until I understand them.

One has to do with the Wealthy not being able to leave the Country if they have investments overseas-they will be charged a 50% surtax on all of their wealth as a penalty. On several forums, the financial gurus are freaking out about it. We may not be wealthy ourselves but it has huge ramifications for everyone. It was part of the HIRE act that the Pres. just signed.
They said this is the first step in devaluing the currency, and they feel martial law.
They do not like the fact that Obama is threatening anyone with that kind of surtax for simply wanting to move out of the Country-that it's basically limiting free movement.

This morning there is something that was posted about Farmers being Federalized. Not sure if it is part of that same bill or what-will post links to that also when I learn more-but it was breaking news this AM.

These power grabs are making me nervous.

[patience]

CapeCMom,

The tax on offshore accounts was hot stuff over at www.tickerforum.org/ (http://www.tickerforum.org/) this week. Hadn't heard about the farm thing. Yeah, this is getting scary. If there were a better place to be, I would be there, but there is nowhere to run. The whole world is infected. And after what our banks have done to other countries, the US isn't very popular right now.

I don't even want to think about where this is going. :eek: Time to dig a hole and crawl inside, maybe literally, but at least figuratively with respect to meeting our own needs.

Many years ago I met a fellow from a Canadian factory, owned by the company I worked for. He had emigrated to Canada from the UK, in response to high taxes there. A well educated and experienced engineer, in the UK he could only afford meat for one day a week, and that was cheap sausage. He said, "They tie you with little strings, like Gulliver, until you are tied hand and foot." Thus the socialism experiment of the UK fell on its' face.

I'm sure the govt will try to grab whatever they can, starting with the rich. I hope I'm poor enough to be off their radar. At least THEY are paying ME now, with SS. Hope it lasts a while--I paid plenty into it. Maxxed it out, year after year. I don't really think I will get it all back, however.

If they enact a VAT or something similiar, like a national sales tax, then it means they are after everyone in desperation. There is no way to fill the black hole of govt debt, however. I think sometimes that a fast crash would be better, like yanking off a bandaid. Get it over with, and go on down the road.

[CapeCMom]

I had heard of a VAT tax already being passed-again I am going to look for links. It was either in the HIRE legislation, or they snuck it in the health care bill. It seemed like it was a done deal. There is so much going on all at once in the past two weeks that I am having a hard time keeping up.

Cloward and Piven-Overwhelm the system to make it crash.

Thanks for the link to the tickerforum thread-they are usually pretty good and explaining things.

[recoilless_57mm]

Patience: I feel you are right on with one of your prior posts laying out the time line we are on. Heaven knows when the SHTF. It will most likely come when to many have painted themselves in a corner. This will most likely be when there are a few major countries having massive civil unrest.

It would be nice to know what indicators a person should watch for to see when it may take place here. I still think we are to; fat, dumb & happy in america to see it coming with any certainty. OT

[momma_to_seven_chi]

Well said. And, I agree that it's here. We're just not seeing a big boom, crash, or headlines.

Instead, we're seeing it in little things. All those empty spaces on the grocery store shelves. Why all those wider isles at WalMart?

Got a letter the other day, from our homeowners insurance company. Been with them since 1966. They will not be renewing our policy in a few months because they'll no longer insure mobile homes in NC.

Gasoline prices creeping up.

Adding government jobs, census takers and such hiding the real unemployment rate figures for productive jobs.

Wouldn't be surprised that in additon to the inflation favors coming into play that we'll soon be seeing a value added tax and/or a national sales tax. In European countries VAT is adding an additional 15-20% in hidden taxes to the prices of everything.

Our local newspaper keeps cutting column widths from the paper. Less and less information, yet the price of the paper keeps going up.

Other than the fast/convenience food "junk" more and more brands and products are suddenly disappearing from the shelves completely. The owner of a small mom and pop type place tells me that he can't order some things because his suppliers have dropped them from their inventory. He's scrambling to find other sources, including trying to order some on line.

Yes, I'm afraid it's already here. It's just going to gradually get worse, with periodically some large event, taking the spotlight for a while.

Just my 2-cents, this morning on the way I see it now.

Lee


This is a wonderful post. I agree completely. I do think we will have several more months maybe a couple of years, of what appears to be "ok" economic standards. But eventually, I believe we will see food and energy shortages so severe that no amount of cash can buy supplies. And cash will be valued as tp. It's God's grace that is slowing down the coming events to allow us more time to prepare for an economic famine.

[sethwyo]

i think linda hamilton is hot, is it true that she has an identical twin sister ?

[randallhilton]

I'm in the middle of "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand. So far, it's sounding very much like she predicted our future.

[Gemglo]

I'm in the middle of "Atlas Shrugged" by Ayn Rand. So far, it's sounding very much like she predicted our future.


I just got Atlas Shrugged from the library today. First time I've ever been apprehensive to read a book, although I wish I would have read it a long time ago. Maybe could of seen what's coming a little clearer.

[patience]

Atlas Shrugged is right! The online news I read is beginning to sound like quotes from the book.

Anecdotal stuff here, but it may serve to show the point:

A friend was by today and said scrap iron was up around $200/ton again, and he heard on TV that it is expected to hit $400/ton by year end. Never seen that before. I'll make a BIG steel order tomorrow.

Same guy said his co-worker, who lives in the country, had cars going by slow during the day, then had an SUV pull in the drive at 3 AM. He woke up, dived into some clothes and headed out with a shotgun. SUV burned out of there. He gave chase and got the license number. He reported this to the Sheriff, who said they were scouting the place for a theft.

Yesterday, I told a friend that when his fencing contractor gets done at his place, I want to talk to him. We already have farm gates up on our driveway, but still a lot of fencing to do. Our rural acre lot is at the edge of farm fields, and has highway frontage. Easy for visitors to see and be seen, on a hilltop. I don't leave anything lying around, except some scrap metal, which is too heavy for the average guy to move handily. I'll be putting more emphasis on security now that scarp is so high. After all, there is a sign out front that says "Machine Shop & Welding", and another that says "Steel in Stock".

But, then, only an idiot or less would try to stick up a metal shop--too damn many hammers lying about! :p Among other things.

FWIW, the biggest job I have this week is jail-type grille bars for a guy's basement windows, made to fit over those plastic weather covers that keep the rain out of the window pits. Near 600 bucks for 4 window grilles, and he couldn't wait to hand over the money when I told him the price. Nothing would do but for him to pay me when he made the order, although I told him he didn't have to. Didn't want me to back out of it, I think. Makes you go hmmm.

[patience]

Bondzilla just stuck his head up from the ocean somewhere. Looks like there may be a problem with US Treasury Bond sales coming up. :eek:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7533014/Sell-off-in-US-Treasuries-raises-sovereign-debt-fears.html
Quote:
"The yield on 10-year Treasuries – the benchmark price of global capital – surged 30 basis points in just two days last week to over 3.9pc, the highest level since the Lehman crisis. Alan Greenspan, ex-head of the US Federal Reserve, said the abrupt move may be "the canary in the coal mine", a warning to Washington that it can no longer borrow with impunity. He said there is a "huge overhang of federal debt, which we have never seen before". "

The Treasury rates would bear watching closely form here on. We could be seeing the beginning of the end here. If the US can't borrow at low interest rates, the govt. can't finance itself, because the interest on accumulated debt will eat the whole budget. This will happen at some point, we just don't know when, so a spike in bond interest rates sends a shiver up my spine.

The Treasury has been leaning more and more toward selling shorter term bonds lately to avoid higher interest on the longer term bonds. That game has about played out, it looks like, since the 30 yr., 20yr., and now the 10 year bonds are going higher. When the interest increase makes it to even shorter term bonds (5 year and shorter), it is game over.

[CapeCMom]

Our triple A bond rating is at risk also-if we get downgraded, all bets are off-our interest rates will soar. Moody's has threatened us a few times now-yet The Congress can't stop spending. State debt problems are also looming on the horizon. It is only a matter of a few months till that comes to a head as in most places (but not all) June 30 is the end to their Fiscal year.

[recoilless_57mm]

Ayn Rands books are a good read. They are a bit long for sure. If you get into Atlas Shrugged then read her others. I read them in reverse. I think it would be better to read them as she developed her thinking.

I feel a good indicator will be this falls elections. Should we retain a one party government then we shall see what talk is and what action is. At the very least the States are going to have to stand up and be counted. If that does not happen folks I think we are doomed. We can mentally masterbate all we want about being off the grid, reclusive or what have you. The socialist state WILL come to see you sooner or later. No one will go untouched. There is NO place left to go to on this rock where you can hide. Pure and simple.

Should we survive this one party attack on our freedoms. Then I feel we must vote folks into congress that do not include attorneys. Attorneys have a huge conflict of interest when they sit on all sides of this government. Attorneys should only be allowed to sit on the side of the judiciary. I would go so far as to say the individual states should not allow attorneys to sit any where but on the judicial side as well. Not only that we MUST demand responsibility from our elected officials. This requires WE THE PEOPLE be responsible first.

Federal Reserve, must go. We need to get back on a currancy system that is not based on the printing press & IOU's.

People must get out and VOTE. We as a country have one of the lowest voter turn-outs. When there is a large turn out it tends to be a popularity contest. People listen to national media for direction instead of doing their own research. This gets back to personal responsibility.

All that said, what do you think of our chances? Have enough folks been hurt or angered yet? OR, are we still to FAT, DUMB & HAPPY?

JMO,

I know I take things way to personal. OT;)

[patience]

Ignorance and apathy rules. Most people don't know what's going on and don't want to know. It's a damned shame, but the general run of the population doesn't deserve what we USED to have in the US. So, we no longer have those advantages, and more are lost each day. :(

There are so many vulnerabilities now that it is impossible to predict what will crack first, but the odds seem to favor a BIG bank collapse, or a currency collapse triggered by events in some other country, or group of countries. When the financial system goes, the game is over. Nothing will function. All I know to do is to try to be in a position to ride out the storm. I hope enough people take heed of the dangers facing us, and do likewise, lest I find them on our front steps looking for help.

You can bet that if/when credit/debit cards stop working, we have a problem. Then gasoline is soon unavailable, then food, then electricity, and all hell breaks loose. Maybe that is why health legislation has provisions for a corps of soldiers in it? How many Katrina type events can the govt handle at one time? Looked to me like they screwed it all up with ONE event that size. What about having such disruptions in every major city in the US? No way. You are going to be on your own. That would bear thinking about.

My guess is that the Fed/govt will try everything they can do to put off the inevitable money collapse, but credible people seem to think we don't have a lot of time now. Weeks, or months, maybe, but probably not more than a year or so. I'm working as fast as I can to get my ducklings lined up. Personally, I'm fencing our property at the moment.

This is no longer an academic discussion.

[recoilless_57mm]

Patience: quote; (This is no longer an academic discussion.)

I agree with many of your posts in back woods home. The quote above refects the honesty that most seem to be avoiding here. You hit the nail dirctly on the head.

I do think that the collapse of the banking system will come. I feel that most of the banking system is in colapse at the moment anyway. What I also realize is, we must prepare but, not give up on the system of government that is our republic. It is just my opinion but, I feel the last chance comes this fall with mid-term elections. If they fail, heaven help us. There will be changes that will not set well with a lot of folks. I don't know if anyone of us can prepare for the possible unrest. Most likely power will only be lost if it is intentionally interrupted to control a situation. Will banks be closed as they were in the 30's? Most likely they will do that or something similar. I doubt food will be in great shortage. Having food shortages only insights anger. Fuel shortages will most likely happen. This is one means of controlling how people move. If things get real bad you will see phone service controlled. Because TV is watched by most people, this will be up and running in good shape. You will have very, very few friends. Trust will be in very short supply. Caution will become the word of the day.

God bless all that gives their all to stopping this sh*t storm that is upon us. Lets all pray we can save our republic. It will be an easier battle to do that than have massive civil unrest.

With respect to all, OT

[patience]

Amen to that! May God save our country. I DON'T want to see this get out of hand. :fie:

Talked to my steel salesman today, who said from his own informal survey, there are a lot of unhappy people out there now. Indiana will almost assuredly go Republican this time. NOBODY likes the health care thing, not even those who would benefit from it. Indiana has already filed suit saying it is unconstitutional to force people to buy insurance. Let's pray that such things get settled within the system, and don't become truly inflammatory issues.

But every business person I know is planning to lay people off if the health care thing isn't fixed, and fast. 40% of doctors, I heard, are planning to quit because of it. AT&T and Caterpillar have said they will both lose billions on this out of their profits, and got called to Congress to document it. Looks like that whole scene could go down the tubes in a hurry. And there is a provision for a Presidential army in it to respond to "health care emergencies". Yeah, right. Got a big problem here.

[lowetom65]

Most of the research I do has something happening in the next 3-6 months.

I tend to believe it. We simply can't keep printing money. I am trying to get ready.

[recoilless_57mm]

Most of the research I do has something happening in the next 3-6 months.

I tend to believe it. We simply can't keep printing money. I am trying to get ready.

Lowetom65: Would you be willing to expand on your research a bit more? I agree we can't keep printing money as we are. The dollar is dropping faster all the time on the world market. Perhaps we shall not make it to the fall elections. There are a great deal of critical thinkers on this forum. It would be nice to have more folks share their thouhts to see if some order can be distilled from it.

I do remember an interview a radio news person was conducting just after 9-11. The interview was with a canadian parlament member, The interviewer as him how he felt 9-11 attack would affect the relations between the US & canada. His response was knee-jerk. The canadian said; he felt it would accellerate the common currancy between the to nation by about 4 years or so. This response took the interview off guard. The interviewer asked him to repeat it. The canadian moved off subject & avoided any comments to his response.

There are more cases like this out there I feel. It would be nice to hear them to see if sense can be made of it. These slips of the tonque or what have you could be thouht off as a warning IMO.

I strongly suggest we all prepare. I just pray it is for nothing. I can't help but feel this is going to get ugly.

OT

[randallhilton]

My dad used to tell me that back in the fifties the talk was that there was no way things could keep going the way they were going and sooner or later they would collapse.

That was a long time ago and we've "merely" devolved into what we have now. Somewhere, there's a tipping point. Where, I don't know. But are we closer than ever before? Yes.

[WileyCoyote]

Aaaaaany minute now...

No, I don't actually believe that. But it WILL take a tipping point. I think that is why the FedGov panicked with H1N1... ok, it was a conspiracy to get us all to get into line and to provide for military movements into areas at the will of the government, and martial law, but still... if there IS a pandemic that strikes as swiftly and as devastatingly as the Spanish flu - either a natural thing or a man-made one the tipping point will come and FAST. Katrina terrified the government - who could have predicted it would all go to hell so fast and furiously? (Well, I coulda - been to Nawlins a number of times, and the entitlement attitude there is scary in normal times... but I digress.) What if it happens in several areas at once? What if Yellowstone really does blow? What if that dead volcano falls off of the Canary Islands and swamps the East Coast (they say the time between the fall and the tsunami hitting the coast is 12 hours - nowhere near time enough to evacuate). What if, what if, what if? What if there is a concerted dirty bomb attack, of several spots at once? Consider the loss of shipping and trucking of foodstuffs to any and even many parts of the country - in less than three days people will be rioting for food.

It won't take much to tip the scales at this point. Not knowing where, or who, or what the extent will be, is like peaking on top of a roller coaster in the dark... you KNOW you're going to go down, but you don't know when, or how fast, or at what angle... and you can't see the bottom.

I don't know when... but we are preparing as fast as we can. We scooted up some things on our three year plan to this year, just in case...

[CapeCMom]

There is an article that I am trying to find more links on the verify the following article from the Canada Free Press about the new taxes coming at us from the EPA's appointed control over Carbon gasses, but this might be a tipping point if true.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/21566

Then there is a similar piece in the New York Times from March 1.

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/03/01/01climatewire-senate-climate-talks-intensify-with-new-carb-17075.html?pagewanted=1

If you can't pass Cap and Trade through the House-give it to the EPA. Don't know about you. but I don't think anyone will be able to afford this. Those of you who are off grid are the only ones who will be ok-the rest of us will have to make due with no electricity and riding our bikes to work.

Prep hard Prep often.

[NCLee]

Yep. A bunch of new regs by the EPA went into effect yesterday. Since they can now control carbon dioxide emissions. Doesn't matter whether cap and trade ever passes the Senate.

Lee

[patience]

Govt's grandiose schemes for more tax-and-spend legislation have two problems.

One, they can't squeeze tax money from broke citizens. We have something like 20% (U6) unemployment, home mortgages collapsing, commercial real estate due to collapse this year (40% of CRE loans will be underwater this year), and around 3,000 banks that hold those CRE loans will see grave difficulty this year. Over 700 banks are on the FDIC watch list for failure. Both indivdual and corporate tax revenus are dramatically lower. State governments are broke--some utterly insolvent. There is simply no money out there for increased taxes without devastating the economy. No carbon tax, health care tax, VAT tax nor any other can pull in significant revenue without destroying the tax base.

Two, the federal govt is broke and in debt to the point of no return. Widening spreads in the shorter term (10 year) Tresury bond market means that noone wants to extend long term credit to the US govt. We are seeing the first signs there of "Bondzilla", the rebellion of the bond market that stopped Hillary Clinton's touted health care plan dead in its' tracks. Looks like the current regime will also have to learn that lesson, whatever their ambitions.

If the above turns out to be true, and I believe it will, then the govt can't tax and can't borrow without collapsing the economy. Then, the govt can only contract--quit spending and cut the head count deastically, or hyperinflate. The hyperinflation route is a short road to the same spot--govt collapse when the currency becomes worthless. This scenario has played out many times in history, some recently. The most similiar one may be Argentina's collapse in 2001, IIRC.

Checkmate. :eek:

[Steve_L]

There is an article that I am trying to find more links on the verify the following article from the Canada Free Press about the new taxes coming at us from the EPA's appointed control over Carbon gasses, but this might be a tipping point if true.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/21566

Then there is a similar piece in the New York Times from March 1.

http://www.nytimes.com/cwire/2010/03/01/01climatewire-senate-climate-talks-intensify-with-new-carb-17075.html?pagewanted=1

If you can't pass Cap and Trade through the House-give it to the EPA. Don't know about you. but I don't think anyone will be able to afford this. Those of you who are off grid are the only ones who will be ok-the rest of us will have to make due with no electricity and riding our bikes to work.

Prep hard Prep often.
It is a good thing if people on the grid can't afford it. Let them suffer the effects of their own actions. Let them come to understand that Obama lied to them and is the cause of their suffering.

I have no sympathy for those that voted away liberty and the rule of law for their own cheap greed.

[CapeCMom]

Patience,

I have long wondered if they intend to hyperinflate as an exit plan. They know their goose is cooked-we can't pay our debts. Wouldn't a back door approach to hyperinflation really be a win win for the Federal Government?

Last week during French President Sarkozy's visit to the White House-DH watched the press conference with him and Obama. He could have SWORN that Sarkozy said that he was excited to be working on a new International currency with Obama. I think that this is what Obama has wanted to begin with. He has this vision of a global government, and what better first step than to meld our currency with the Euro?-or maybe a whole new currency for everyone. The Euro isn't doing so well with the PIIGS situation, so restarting everything for everyone would seem logical. (not to me but TPTB).

[patience]

Grabbing at straws....

Quote:
"It couldn’t have happened to a nicer country. On March 18, with very little pomp and circumstance, president Obama passed the most recent stimulus act, the $17.5 billion Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act (H.R. 2487) (http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20000700-503544.html), brilliantly goalseeked by the administration’s millionaire cronies to abbreviate as HIRE (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/HIRE%20act.pdf). As it was merely the latest in an endless stream of acts destined to expand the government payroll to infinity, nobody cared about it, or actually read it. Because if anyone had read it, the act would have been known as the Capital Controls Act, as one of the lesser, but infinitely more important provisions on page 27, known as Offset Provisions - Subtitle A—Foreign Account Tax Compliance, institutes just that. In brief, the Provision requires that foreign banks not only withhold 30% of all outgoing capital flows (likely remitting the collection promptly back to the US Treasury) but also disclose the full details of non-exempt account-holders to the US and the IRS."

Link:
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/on-the-down-low-capital-controls-are-now-law_04012010

Looks like the govt is trying to grab every cent they can get their hands on to keep them going another day or two. But, then, capital flight is a real risk with a shaky currency.

[CapeCMom]

I forgot to add that I don't think Obama cares if we can afford it or not. If he crashes the general population, don't you think that our dependence on the government is something that they really want anyway? I mean they have taken over so much as it is. They want us dependent on them so that it gives them more power.

[patience]

CapeCMom,

A new currency, especially with the Euro,makes sense to me. You just gotta wonder when the other shoe is going to drop. As to the power grab, I'd say yes, that is a given. Makes no sense to me, though for the parasite to kill the host. I can't think like that.

[Steve_L]

CapeCMom,

A new currency, especially with the Euro,makes sense to me. You just gotta wonder when the other shoe is going to drop. As to the power grab, I'd say yes, that is a given. Makes no sense to me, though for the parasite to kill the host. I can't think like that.

They don't want to kill the host as much as they want to domesticate the beast. You didn't get the dog by letting most of the wolves live. You select the meekest, most obedient and the most docile of the breed. They want a subservient class. The infamous "They" want a subclass to serve them; 6 billion people are FAR to many. They can make do with about 1/12th that number; 500 million or so.

The H1N1 experiment was too see who was in the group that blindly accepted the government line. The "Global Warming" scam, besides having a big benefit to "Them", also delineates those of use who can think (who they regard as wolves) from those who will follow (their new dogs).

Yes, they've been using their minions in the press to bring the idea of one world currency to our attention for years now. When we stop barking at it, they will implement it.

[WileyCoyote]

The H1N1 experiment was too see who was in the group that blindly accepted the government line. The "Global Warming" scam, besides having a big benefit to "Them", also delineates those of use who can think (who they regard as wolves) from those who will follow (their new dogs).

Too true. For the first time in anyone local's memory, EVERYone, age 6 months to 80, 'blind crippled or crazy" as DH puts it, had to have a permission slip filled out prior to receiving the 'vaccine'. The slips had their names, addresses, and phone numbers on them; parental permission slips had their parents' info as well. Two people forgot to fill theirs out, and the Health Dept hounded us for weeks until we got them all in. (I am the secretary at the school where the shots were given and had to co-ordinate with the school nurse and HD.) The permission slips were to be a part of the national, Federal database, and the State Health Department was their willing (after all, the shots were FREE!) and aggressive partner in this..."for our own protection". Most of the folks in our area refused to get the vaccine (abt 99.8%), so I guess we are now a hotbed of homegrown terrorists. :eek:

They can't make the populace swallow the elephant all at once, so bit by bit and bite by bite they are being imprisoned by their own fears and desires. It's a lot like fencing in wild hogs or turkeys. First week, put the corn next to a fence. Two weeks later, put up a fence at right angles to the first one. By the time you close the gate on the last fence, the 'wild' animals are imprisoned by their own greed and laziness.

[recoilless_57mm]

Too true. For the first time in anyone local's memory, EVERYone, age 6 months to 80, 'blind crippled or crazy" as DH puts it, had to have a permission slip filled out prior to receiving the 'vaccine'. The slips had their names, addresses, and phone numbers on them; parental permission slips had their parents' info as well. Two people forgot to fill theirs out, and the Health Dept hounded us for weeks until we got them all in. (I am the secretary at the school where the shots were given and had to co-ordinate with the school nurse and HD.) The permission slips were to be a part of the national, Federal database, and the State Health Department was their willing (after all, the shots were FREE!) and aggressive partner in this..."for our own protection". Most of the folks in our area refused to get the vaccine (abt 99.8%), so I guess we are now a hotbed of homegrown terrorists. :eek:

They can't make the populace swallow the elephant all at once, so bit by bit and bite by bite they are being imprisoned by their own fears and desires. It's a lot like fencing in wild hogs or turkeys. First week, put the corn next to a fence. Two weeks later, put up a fence at right angles to the first one. By the time you close the gate on the last fence, the 'wild' animals are imprisoned by their own greed and laziness.

Most people live their life in fear. The fear of DEATH is a powerful tool in the hands of the national beauracracy & news media. There is one thing we can all count on. IF YOU WERE BORN YOU WILL DIE! PERIOD! There is no use worrying about it at great lengths. Take the best care of yourself and your offspring you can. Live life and enjoy. There is nothing you can do to change the end.

It seems the beauracracy has most of hollywood behind them as well. All you see on TV is some off the wall fantasy of living forever or magic in one form or another. NO REALITY FOUND THERE! I for one have turned the tv off. The TV has no value in real life. I can't remember the last time I viewed something on the boob-tube that was pure entertainment. I can get all the news I need from a radio. If I am watching a boob-tube I am not doing another task that will prove to be productive.

Bottom line: THERE IS RISK IN BEING ALIVE! PEOPLE SHOULD GET USE TO IT. We all want the best for ourselves, children and grandchildren. Having the beauracracy involved in making decisions for us or them is not one I care for!

OT

[ScrubbieLady]

had to have a permission slip filled out prior to receiving the 'vaccine'. The slips had their names, addresses, and phone numbers on them; parental permission slips had their parents' info as well. Two people forgot to fill theirs out, and the Health Dept hounded us for weeks until we got them all in. ......The permission slips were to be a part of the national, Federal database, and the State Health Department was their willing (after all, the shots were FREE!) and aggressive partner in this.

Sounds like all the info the Census bureau wants.

[patience]

This analyst says it won't be long now, and summarizes why that is the case:
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.10/fear.html

Quote:

"At the moment, we see the government spending excessively and making promises to spend that cannot be kept. This is already a major problem in states like California and countries like Greece, but the federal government will soon join them. At all levels of government, promises to pay state and local pensions and to provide health care far outstrip its capacity to pay. The Congressional Budget Office and many others have been warning for years about the $50 or $60 trillion of unfunded liability. Washington's answer on health care? Offer an expensive drug benefit followed by a more expensive ‘reform' that increases the unfunded Medicare-Medicaid liability. Dissemble about the real costs." –Allan Meltzer
That is Cloward-piven in action -- expand government and make impossible promises until the collapse occurs and they nationalize EVERYTHING to make essential payments. It is the recipe for collapsing a market economy into a socialist one.
snip
2010 will also be challenging for G7 Sovereigns as they TRY to rollover inconceivable sums of existing debt while borrowing NEW money to pay for the WELFARE states' spending. Trillions of dollars of borrowing challenges lie directly ahead; let's look at some illustrations of the rollover requirements for Germany, France, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Greece from www.newyorktimes.com (http://www.newyorktimes.com/) and Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust blog;
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.10/images/0326_clip_image012.jpg
These are just the rollover requirements for the United States and do not include NEW BORROWING of $1.6 TRILLION. So, a total of OVER $3.5 Trillion is required, providing that the deficits are as projected by the CBO (are they ever accurate?). That's almost $300 Billion a month, or $10 Billion a day (10,000 million a day). Mind numbing numbers! end quote.

This will end soon, and not well, IMHO.

[sethwyo]

it will end , Butt then what ?

we wore told how 'something' was going to happen when 2000 rolled around, it came, and the computers simply reset their clocks.

all the money will be usless and valueless, what will this cause ?

[patience]

Quote:
"all the money will be usless and valueless, what will this cause ?"

The short answer is, we all get REALLY POOR really fast.

If the US dollar's value compared to other currencies goes really low, then what we buy from those other countries will cost more proportionately. Like oil and Chinese manufactured goods. (Check where most of the stuff you have bought in the last 10 years came from). The cost of living for the average citizen would skyrocket.

A lot of food is imported to the US, also, like Danish ham, New Zealand cheese, and sugar from several countries. A lot of seafood comes from Russia and southeast Asia, and a lot of beef comes from Brazil. Japanese cars, German radios, cutting tools for my machine shop from Macedonia, China, Poland, the UK, and Spain. Lumber and natural gas comes into the US from Canada, along with a lot of steel. We truly live in a global marketplace.

The impact of oil prices rising alone, if high enough, could cripple the US economy, since oil is the raw material used to make many things (chemicals, plastics, fiber for textiles, sealing compounds for canned food, carpet, countertops, tires, and millions of other things.

THEN, you add in the transportation costs of increased fuel prices. The steel order that I had delivered this week had an added $5.95 surcharge for fuel cost as of now.

Electrical power is generated in many parts of the US using natural gas for fuel--that comes from Canada. Electicity, in turn, is used to refine aluminum, as in your soda can, so you can add a dime to the cost of your soda from the increased cost of the metal, plus the higher transportation cost, plus the higher cost of the sugar in it, etc. AND your electric bill will go up, probably by a lot.

If the US dollar is devalued, the standard of living will drop, and quickly. How far it drops depends on how far the money is devalued. In Argentina, back in 2001 IIRC, the Argentine Peso dropped by a factor of 3 to 1 in a matter of a few days when their currency crashed. Since a large part of goods in Argentina were imported, the effect was a 50% to 66% (depending on how much of what people bought that was imported) pay cut for every working person in the country.

Google "FERFAL" for a blog by a man who lived through that. Scary stuff.

[sethwyo]

sounds like americans will simply hafto learn to do things for themselves again, we can grow and produce a lot of food, the oil reserves under the reservation in north dakota are bigger then ate one in arabia was, we have forests here and ore.

if the dollar collapses it wont chainge anything except we will need a fresh currancy to continue to use as trade in place of the dollar for goods and services that are produced.

[recoilless_57mm]

sounds like americans will simply hafto learn to do things for themselves again, we can grow and produce a lot of food, the oil reserves under the reservation in north dakota are bigger then ate one in arabia was, we have forests here and ore.

if the dollar collapses it wont chainge anything except we will need a fresh currancy to continue to use as trade in place of the dollar for goods and services that are produced.

You have to be kidding dude!!

OT:D

[NCLee]

sounds like americans will simply hafto learn to do things for themselves again, we can grow and produce a lot of food, the oil reserves under the reservation in north dakota are bigger then ate one in arabia was, we have forests here and ore.

if the dollar collapses it wont chainge anything except we will need a fresh currancy to continue to use as trade in place of the dollar for goods and services that are produced.

It just ain't gonna work that way, IMHO.

How quickly can an apartment dweller in NYC, obtain the land, learn to grow and produce their own food? We're too many generations removed from more self-reliance times, that many people don't even know the source of their food, much less how to produce it.

Ore doesn't have any value if there are no smelters to process it. Forests don't have any value if there are no mills to process it. Oil and gas reserves have no value if the means to access and transport it aren't in place.

For example, for years I've been observing the evidence there's possibly an iron ore deposit near my home. Yet, there's nothing in this area that can tap into that, if it exists, and transform ore into a useful product. Nor, anyone with the skills, except a few who have some basic blacksmithing knowledge. Which, btw, isn't enough to operate a smelter that has no energy source. So, in a SHTF, that ore deposit wouldn't have any meaningful value, for many many years, at a bare minimum.

What happens during those intervening years?

Lee

[sethwyo]

to people who dont understand an economy, and only know trading money for goods and services without producing anything themselves but waste, Not knowing how to do any real work, the idea of money Not being the source of all goods and services is strange.

its amazing to me that some people cant do anything without money.
its labor that is the source of all food and fuel and other things such as houses and clothes.

the dollar wont be the cause of the economic collapse, it will be people who dont do any real work that will cause it.

once upon a time, people worked, they made and processed things such as grains, clothing, metal, wood and fuel, they kept their own things to use for themselves and traded with other people for other goods and services, when money came along it made trade simple, BECAUSE money represented labor. but then people began to do less and less because they could simply specialize in only one trade and sell their labor for money and buy everything they needed from other tradesmen, and the trade they worked was something they had no use for themselves, so the only skill they had was of no personal use to themselves.
iv watched farmers go broke borrowing money trying to grow and sell livestock and food, the idea of using their own product was so outlandish to them, that they went broke while growing chickens, hogs, beef grains and vegetables ALL things that they could have been using themselves.
all they could think of was to sell their stuff and try to buy good from others.

during the great depression ignorant farmers complained about the market crash while they sold their grain for pennies on the dollar, then wasted the little money they got on food from the store, they could have kept their grain stores and used it to make flour for baked goods for themselves and feed chickens and goats to make eggs, cheese, milk and meat.

insted of working and having, people sat around dust blown shacks in misery, wishing they wore dead. Because, they had no money right ?

[CapeCMom]

Seth,

I think your kind of singing to the choir here. All of us here are pretty self reliant-homesteaders etc. We will probably be OK if things go South. But how many millions of others won't be? How many people will panic and leave the city for the Country and then think that they can take what you have because they need it? They did a test in a County down south recently and the kids in this elementary school didn't know the difference between a potato and a tomato. The actually had the vegis there and the kids didn't even know what they were!

Like Lee said, society is far too removed from any valuable skill that would help them survive.
Please don't be fooled into thinking that people will just lay down and die because they have no food. The basic survival instinct will kick in and they will get what they have to by any means necessary. It's not going to be pretty.

Back to topic-The Fed is supposed to make some important announcement today. There is speculation that it is about interest rates. If memory serves me correctly, it should come at the usual time-about 2:00 p.m. -the markets are closed in Europe today-it would be a perfect day to announce something without worrying about a knee jerk reaction from the markets.

[patience]

Interest rates are a crtiical matter at the moment. The govt. has 36% of new debt maturing in less than a year, which means it must be rolled over. Any increase in interest rates will be felt there immediately and could effectively mean the inability to spend due to interest costs.

The Fed will most likely leave their interest rate TARGET at near zero. BUT the Fed does not SET interest rates, only a target which it tries to enforce by the rates it charges other banks. Nothing prevents another country from demanding higher interest rates to loan money to the US.

Contrary to popular belief, the Fed is NOT all-powerful.

The bond market is where I expect the first real trouble to start.

[CapeCMom]

Muni bonds are the first to explode.

[sethwyo]

so the money system isnt going to work, its going to stop going.

and then, the mental defishents will kill and eat the yuppies before dieing themselves.

and then the government will take over More to give the survivors order.

[CanNerd]

I don't see how the government will work since there will be no money to pay themselves and expressing control by how and to whom it is spent.

[recoilless_57mm]

so the money system isnt going to work, its going to stop going.

and then, the mental defishents will kill and eat the yuppies before dieing themselves.

and then the government will take over More to give the survivors order.

You probably have it correct sethwyo. So where do you fit into this picture sethwyo? You going to tell me you won't be affected?

Back to the subject of how long until the sh*t hits the fan. I don't think anyone of us really knows. It may not matter if the dollar falls. It may not matter if this country becomes socialist. It may not matter that we have NO freedoms granted by our Constitution & bill of rights. I nor anyone else can read how the future will play out. History on the other hand says that I don't think I am going to care for a system of government like socialism. I have worked hard to pay for my home. I don't care for the present direction that our country is being lead by these beauacrats. It is my opinion that the folks that have the best handle on the economic death of america will be found at these summits that have been going on for some time now.

JMO

OT

[AlchemyAcres]

It may not matter if the dollar falls. It may not matter if this country becomes socialist. It may not matter that we have NO freedoms granted by our Constitution & bill of rights. I nor anyone else can read how the future will play out.

Surprise!!!

You've been living in a semi-socialist country for years!!!

State run socialist mail delivery!
State run public education system!
State run retirement pensioner system that's a ponzy scheme!
Semi-socialist agriculture system!!
Newly approved socialist healthcare system!
Etc. etc. etc.
Socialism is making gains every day!!!!

The Constitution doesn't grant any freedoms or rights...its intent was to protect inalienable and God given rights...but, unfortunately, that's failing!!!!


~Martin

[recoilless_57mm]

Surprise!!!

You've been living in a semi-socialist country for years!!!

State run socialist mail delivery!
State run public education system!
State run retirement pensioner system that's a ponzy scheme!
Semi-socialist agriculture system!!
Newly approved socialist healthcare system!
Etc. etc. etc.
Socialism is making gains every day!!!!

The Constitution doesn't grant any freedoms or rights...its intent was to protect inalienable and God given rights...but, unfortunately, that's failing!!!!


~Martin

Martin: I stand corrected on the issue regarding the Constitution granting vs. protecting our rights. Thank you for pointing this out.

Because of the socialists "we the people" have allowed to gain a majority in congress, education, agriculture & work place unions, we are now looking at becoming a true socialist country & not the semi-socialist country you describe. I agree we are moving further left at an alarming rate. Make no mistake I am against this hostile takeover of the United States. It angers me that so many people have become so fat, dumb & happy. Those same people will trade FDH for our God given rights.

OT

[AlchemyAcres]

Martin: I stand corrected on the issue regarding the Constitution granting vs. protecting our rights. Thank you for pointing this out.

Because of the socialists "we the people" have allowed to gain a majority in congress, education, agriculture & work place unions, we are now looking at becoming a true socialist country & not the semi-socialist country you describe. I agree we are moving further left at an alarming rate. Make no mistake I am against this hostile takeover of the United States. It angers me that so many people have become so fat, dumb & happy. Those same people will trade FDH for our God given rights.

OT

One need only understand basic human nature (short-sightedness, selfishness and greed) to accurately predict the future!!!!
Unfortunately, It's that simple!!!! :(


~Martin

[recoilless_57mm]

One need only understand basic human nature (short-sightedness, selfishness and greed) to accurately predict the future!!!!
Unfortunately, It's that simple!!!! :(


~Martin

Martin: These are all very strong & dark human emotions. I feel we all battle them every day of our lives. It is unfortunate that we & our society has taught them to our childeren. This is the down side to not having to struggle for a better life. It is better an individual has to struggle than have an easy way out. There seems to be an idea that it is better to take the handout than refuse it. It is hidden in the words free, entitled, subsidy, stipend, price support, tarrif & many more similar words & catch phrases. It is an incidiously slow & destructive process. Not easy having to take some of the responsibility for where we are at now.

Unfortunately, it is that simple!!!!!:(

Charlie

[CapeCMom]

I know some of you have been following what has been going on with the CFTC and the mini trial of JP Morgan Chase and others manipulating silver prices. There is a quick video this morning from the guy who runs the inflation nation site. He is always excellent, and he reminds us of the far reaching implications of the short selling of silver-because if they are doing it with silver-you know they are doing it with gold. Big stuff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XidJNL9YPZ4

[patience]

Yep, big stuff all right. If this gets legs, it could cause some serious confidence issues. The fact that there is so much more "paper silver" than actual metal is undoubtedly why the actual metal is so scarce to buy. Well, that, and the fact that there is truly very little silver to be sold, because it is also an industrial metal and gets "used up", so to speak.

The price of silver could explode if all the facts were known. Some have said the short squeeze could easily see it go to $40-$50/ounce. Makes my junk coin buy at $13 look pretty good, although I knew nothing of the dirty laundry when I bought it.

Then there are the rumors of gold bars filled with tungsten, and the fact that no one has ever audited Fort Knox. Makes you go Hmmm.

[recoilless_57mm]

Let us not forget the jack-booted thugs we have in power at present can outlaw any or all the precious metals. They have done this in the past. It is one more reason we must take our republic back.

OT

[CanNerd]

The tampered with gold bars story is at this link:

http://mondovista.com/fakegold.html

Tungsten is apparently the only metal with the same weight as Gold so it can be substituted without causing questions by a different weight of the bars, but you would not know the difference unless you ruined the bar by drilling into it.

[CanNerd]

Let us not forget the jack-booted thugs we have in power at present can outlaw any or all the precious metals.
OT
I find it more curious as to 'why' we consider such things as precious to us. You can't eat it and in today's world you can't even walk into a store and expect a merchant to accept the stuff.

Truly ancient history evidences our dominating interest for Gold, but it was for someone else, not own personal wants. Think about it. We're just pawns in a much bigger event going on.

For when the SHTF I prefer to have my investments in TP and jars of peanut butter.

[AlchemyAcres]

I think the wisest investments are knowledge and things that can re-produce...be they plant or animal.

I've yet to see any precious metal make more of its kind......let alone satisfy any of the basic human needs.



~Martin

[CapeCMom]

I find it more curious as to 'why' we consider such things as precious to us. You can't eat it and in today's world you can't even walk into a store and expect a merchant to accept the stuff.

Truly ancient history evidences our dominating interest for Gold, but it was for someone else, not own personal wants. Think about it. We're just pawns in a much bigger event going on.

For when the SHTF I prefer to have my investments in TP and jars of peanut butter.

I agree with you canNerd. But for some people PMs are a way to preserve their wealth.
I myself don't have any investments, but if I DID have money like that I would consider buying PMs. It's better than a piece of paper saying I own stock in some company.

It is weird that a piece of colored metal would be worth money like that. I have never really understood our fascination with it.

[sethwyo]

knowledge, skills, health and things that can reproduce. grains and plants that can be stored and made into food and fuel.
simple tools can be made and used to make better tools to make machines.
gold and sliver only have whatever trade value the gov says it has. it has NO REAL value. it can only be traded if some one wants it for taking up space in a safe And IF they have something to trade for it. i have heard ideas about why people are so interested in gold, its strange that people covet it so much, one story is that people wore geneticaly programed to seek gold and store it in hords so someone else could come and get it for mechanical purposes.

salt was once the driving force, people did a lot of work to mine transport and prossess salt, sea ports, fleets of ships, citys armys and civilations wore all baised on salt. settlers of america fought with the natives over salt deposits. now salt is put into most all prossessed foods and is very affordable and plentiful so noone notices it in their lives.

peoples drive for gold is weird, mabey its another thing people ahve used to fool themselves. thinking that they can store gold and it will save them.

[patience]

I see gold and silver as investment trades only, which can become a buy-and-hold for a while, but ultimately I want out of those metals, and into more steel that I can make useful things from, to use or sell/trade.

The major reason I bought some silver coins is a hedge against inflation to come, as a means of preserving some buying power to pay property taxes. I don't think the market for US silver coins is going away, nor will the taxes go away. And it is hard to pay taxes with barter items. :mad:

Silver closed today at $18.08, he highest since late January. I bought in at about $13, so that's good, but ONLY if I pick the right time to sell out! Gotta be right both when buying AND selling to win on that, which is why I put by far the most emphasis on tangible, productive goods, not PM's, with what money we had to spare.

Salt is a good investment, looks to me like. In a SHTF situation, there will be some real demand for salt to preserve meat and pickle other foods. Salt is SOOO cheap, it makes sense to me to have a sizable amount on hand.

[Steve_L]

I'm a little concerned that the precious metals market is being manipulated right now, like the stock market was 10 to 15 years ago.

I would like to invest my money into land and homestead.

[patience]

Uh, the stock market is being propped heavily right now. That's where the bank bailout money is going, IMHO.

[NCLee]

Yesterday, heard in the news that Paul Volcker is openly talking about a VAT. Suspect there's going to be more and more "leaks" about either this or a national sales tax between now and the Deficit Commission report after the November elections.

If the powers to be, follow the European model (18%-25%), we're going to see higher prices on everything, even food, even though there are some claims, that food will be exempt. (If a producting/processing operation has to pay a VAT on their equipment, supplies and fuel, it will be reflected in higher food costs.)

How does this relate to buying gold and silver, you may ask?

IMHO, I'd rather be buying things I need now or see the potential for need in the future. With the choice of buying an ounce of gold or the equivalent value in silver, I'd choose instead to spend the money now.

First, I fear there's a bubble in the precious metals market that's going to burst just as the dot com and housing bubbles burst. Second, even if there's no bubble, will the precious metals value increase at a rate that's fast enough to offset the VAT effect on prices?

So, rather than buying that ounce of gold, more canning jars, lye for soap, bags of charcoal, green coffee beans, bar & chain for the saw, OTC meds, and such would be on my shopping list.

Just my 2 copper pennies, this morning.

Lee

Volcker: Taxes likely to rise eventually to tame deficit
The United States should consider raising taxes to help bring deficits under control and may need to consider a European-style value-added tax, White House adviser Paul Volcker said on Tuesday.

Volcker, answering a question from the audience at a New York Historical Society event, said the value-added tax "was not as toxic an idea" as it has been in the past and also said a carbon or other energy-related tax may become necessary.

Though he acknowledged that both were still unpopular ideas, he said getting entitlement costs and the U.S. budget deficit under control may require such moves. "If at the end of the day we need to raise taxes, we should raise taxes," he said. NEW YORK Tue Apr 6, 2010 7:57pm EDT NEW YORK (Reuters) - http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6355N520100406

[firegirl969]

Yea Lee, I heard last night on FOX that the VAT will be in addition to regular income tax. That will finish crippling this USA of ours, IMHO.

[pcrowder]

Just my $0.02, but I've thought lately that with sooooo many people investing in gold, that it won't be worth as much because everyone has it. Kind of like if everyone has "x", then its value is diminished because it isn't rare any more.


Like I said, just my $0.02....And I agree with Alchemy Acres and NCLee - I plan on putting my money into more edible/sellable animals, more seed, and more land, along with more canning jars and anything else I feel we will need when utility prices become prohibitive, and food and all other prices under VAT skyrocket. I feel as if we've all been living in 1929, but 1934 is coming fast and furious, and I want to learn from the lessons and mistakes of the previous Great Depression. Gold....you can have my pawltry wedding ring. I'll take food and fuel to get me through.

[patience]

pcrowder,

I'm with you. It is not an easy thing to do, to spend money wisely. Anyone can spend it, but it takes serious thoght and lots of it to make your buying effective. I particularly like buying energy, either storable fuels, or means of producing energy, since that is one of the most difficult to store, yet needful things.

I agree that the govt, deep in debt and starving for revenue, will try to wring the last drop of blood from its' citizens. My only consolation is that I have so little that there isn't much for them to get!

[firegirl969]

I agree with all of you concerning the coming VAT. Today, I ordered the 8 Trojan T105 batteries for our solar system. I got backpay from SS for Disability, and we paid off my mom from when she bought the truck for us last year. We have no other debt. The rest of the money is being spent on many different prep items to give us another level of self-reliance. We have ordered a tankless propane hot water heater, more ammo, more rechargeable batteries, and made a deal on two dairy goats that we will pick up on the 23rd. DD wants to raise my new granddaughter on goats milk. DH put in a really nice, really nice large garden. Today I picked up 50 boxes of canning lids for $1 each at Freds. I plan to buy another 50 when they get them. We are going to stock up on as much as we can before a VAT goes into effect. That way, it won't hit us so hard for many years, and we will produce all that we can. Forgot to add, we got 100 lbs of sugar at wallyworld the other night as well. That give us about 400 lbs of sugar thus far. My cousin also gave us 1200+ canning jars that her mom used. Both daughters want canning lessons this summer, so I will provide those. Both of them are learning to pinch pennies and save anywhere they can.

[sethwyo]

i once had several years of food stocked, 600 gallons of fuel, a battery bank, diesel generators, solar pannels, guns ammo, seeds, tools for every job, 4x4 trucks. soap, clothes, water storage, And i was building an underground house.

its all gone now, tonight im sleeping in my car at wal mart and my meals are at a soup kitchen.
storing and stocking things may be ok, but if you buy eggs and you put them all in one basket, and if the basket is stolden or you drop it, Or someone strikes it from your hand, you dont have anything but broken pieces, and a mess to clean up.

[Native87]

I think the wisest investments are knowledge and things that can re-produce...be they plant or animal.

I've yet to see any precious metal make more of its kind......let alone satisfy any of the basic human needs.



~Martin

It could not be stated better IMO.

[patience]

sethwyo,

RE: Refuge.
Same thing happened to me. Had it all. 45 acres, mostly forested, and farmed the rest with horses. Had a furniture shop and turned the farm's tree's into finished furniture. We didn't lose the farm to creditors, but had to sell it due to other extreme hardships.

Now, we are rebuilding, 20 years later. Yes, you can lose it. Yes, you should have more than one plan. And, yes, I still think it is the best shot we have at present.

[patience]

Chris Martenson's latest is worth a read in its' entirety. Scary stuff, indeed. :eek:

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/shel ... nues/37778 (http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/shell-game-continues/37778)

Quote:
"My concern is that the mysterious indirect and direct buyers that have been showing up at Treasury auctions lately may be none other than the Fed itself or its proxies, hidden by some slight shell game or another.

There simply seems to be no other explanation, given the perilous state of the global economy. Where is all this capital coming from, if not central banks? From earnings? From exports? From legitimate economic savings? From private individuals (during a major stock bull run)? None of these explanations matches the volume of borrowing that we are seeing in the US Treasury market, let alone worldwide.

The simplest explanation is that central banks are somehow providing the necessary liquidity to support the various governmental bond auctions that are happening around the world. The US story does not add up and provides enough of a smoking gun to suggest that there are (at the very least) non-transparent buyers for the massive, record-breaking Treasury issuances we've been seeing lately.

If, or when, these deceptions are revealed, I predict that we will experience a pretty significant market dislocation that will take the form of a chaotic bond market, with yields that rapidly gyrate higher, currency perturbations that will shake markets, and an extended banking holiday, with capital controls imposed until a nightmarish derivative mess is unsorted."

snip

"For myself, this means putting in 25 fruit and nut trees on my property (accomplished this past weekend), followed by expanding the garden and installing solar and energy efficiency improvements. We shall see if these turn out to be good uses for my capital and time. For now, they provide me with the psychological sense of forward movement and improvement, both of which are very important to me right now and worth every penny to me all on their own.

Your faithful information scout,
Chris Martenson"

Other traders had come to the same conclusion, that the Fed has been, and is, monetizing the debt, hiding it as Chris says with a shell game of anaymous "indirect bidders".

Martenson is quick to point out that no one can predict the future, but those who pay attention can see the trends, nearly vebatim the motto of Gerald Celente's Trends Research outfit. Both men would bear listening to, IMHO. If these guys are right, we are teetering on the edge of a govt. funding crisis, like Iceland, now Greece, and several others ATM. A dollar collapse to follow.

[patience]

Might want to read this fellow, too.

http://www.shtfplan.com/forecasting/armstrong-cyclical-turning-point-april-16-approaches_04092010

Martin Armstrong is one of the original analysts who pulled the covers off all the scams prepetrated by the govt., Fed, and big banks. He blew the whistle on Goldman Sachs, and they wanted his head on a platter. Maybe it is no coincidence that the 2 latest heads of the US Treasury are Goldman Sachs alumni. He is currently locked up for contempt of court, since he won't give up his forecasting models. His work has been the most accurate of any I have read--not perfect by any means, but awfully close.

And he is now saying we are due for a stock market crash of monumental proportions.

[CapeCMom]

We may not have long? I copied this from another forum. His words sum it up nicely.

It's a real shame that most of those who don't own any gold/silver won't
bother to read this story, thinking it does not concern or affect them.

They look at it as if it were all about some obscure commodity, which they
have little direct stake in or could care about, but they are dead wrong. In
fact, they could not be more wrong, as the implications are universal and
all pervasive throughout everyone's financial health. No exceptions here!!

What's been going on in the manipulation and suppression of gold/silver has
been affecting everybody everywhere in a very big way because it has, for
decades now, eroded the value of everyone's hard-earned dollars, savings
and every investment and asset they own. And, the reckoning coming will
accelerate that now and turn everyone's financial assumptions upside down.

How so?

Gold is the antithesis of paper fiat dollars. Keeping gold/silver artificially
subdued, the worlds barometer of the health of paper fiat currencies, has
allowed the banksters then to create even more paper dollars and to keep
interest rates artificially lower than they would have been otherwise, all of
which has diluted the value & eroded the purchasing power of all of our $'s.

When this story gets out, and it's starting to now, gold & silver will explode
up into new record breaking highs, but the biggest headlines then will be
less about gold & silver, that few own, finally being unleashed up into their
true valuations, and much more about the collapse then of the dollar, which
everybody owns, falling towards its true valuations. They know it, and are
scrambling to keep the general public in the dark until it's too late for them.

TPTB have been desperate to blackout this story, from a fire at CFTC affecting
gold/silver trader files, video and audio cut outs when GATA testifies, whistle-
blower has an attempt on his life, numerous major financial news channels
suddenly canceling previously scheduled interviews with major players, and
for two weeks now this headline news is viral all over the net but no major
media has been willing to touch it, etc. Not till this NY Post story, anyways.

You can't make this stuff up, nor can you escape the inevitable dollar erosion
and resulting rising prices for essentials, especially for overseas oil imports
and food production here, as it is so completely dependent on, at every stage
before it gets to your table, for energy in all it's many forms.

It could get so bad that people will be quickly spending their dollars to buy
anything that might better hold it's value before their dollars buy even less
tomorrow. This will only feed on itself, once it gets going, as it then raises
prices even more, at the same time creating shortages and increasing even
more the panic & urgency to convert out of dollars and into any essential
hard goods quickly.

That'll be the BIG NEWS that'll affect everyone everywhere and those that
understand how the ending of the suppression of gold/silver foretells it and
guarantees it will be one-step ahead, even if they never buy any gold/silver.
They will be able to better insulate and isolate themselves from what's coming,
especially if they do convert some of their paper dollars into gold/silver, just
like TPTB is and has been doing all along, too!

My only concern is that where we may have had X number of months before
an 'event' was unleashed to blame our inevitable monetary/financial/economic
collapse upon, and thus the excuse they need for draconian 'emergency' banking
and monetary controls, etc., now we could suddenly find ourselves having only
X number of weeks, as the story of the biggest fraud in history goes mainstream.

[CapeCMom]

Here's the story from the New York Post.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/metal_are_in_the_pits_2arTlGNbMK7mb1uJeVHb0O/0

[patience]

That's why I have never played gold/silver until now. It seemed pretty obvious that the prices were being gamed, from way back when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market. Unless you were privy to the games being played, you would probably lose on a trade. Today, the real world factors of supply/demand, fear in the markets, the dollar's shaky position, and major buying by China and India, among others (Japan), are threatening hard to outweigh the gamers ability to control the PM markets.

I bought in about a year ago, when silver spot was at $13, and never looked back. I still see it as a TRADE, nothing else. It will be a buy-and-hold, until we see the dollar crash hard, then, I'm going to bail on it. I can easily foresee that the govt will quickly mess with this market when PM's go ballistic. At the very least, there will be some sort of heavy tax on trading metals. Holding it offshore I don't think is a good idea, unless you plan to leave the US and go where you have your metals. Govt. will likely put offshore metals in the same bucket with other capital controls, as recently were passed. No point in getting crossways of that. Much easier to just sell the stuff, take the capital gains hit, and put the money into what we need for the future.

EDIT TO ADD: In the final ananlysis, my purpose for owning silver right now is simply an inflation hedge, that is more liquid than , say, owning a tractor, or a ton of copper wire, or other goods that will track inflation. I simply want to protect the value of savings for the next months or maybe a year or so, depending on the fate of the dollar. At that point, I regroup. My idea of what to do with the money after I sell out of silver is to go to auctions nearby for some farm equipment as a longer term buy and hold. Pay my taxes a year ahead if they will let me. Pay the internet/phone bill a year ahead (I get a free month doing that, but it is a gamble as to whether they will stay in business), and pay the car insurance ahead for a year. I can always burn through some money stocking our welding and machine shop, if necessary, although we keep it at about a year's worth of supplies now. I could drop quite a bit on nuts and bolts, and sundry hardware that will keep me trading for a long time, since I am in that sort of repair business.

There is no point to all this, unless I beat the major price increases on the things I buy with the proceeds of the silver trade. I am counting on prices of things like used tractors being held down by hard times, and a certain lag time before things like steel and hardware prices go crazy. Timing is everything here! I hate being in that position, but I don't have a better answer yet. I could buy goods now, but I want to try to catch the run-up in silver, which is the whole point of this exercise.

A lot of other inflation hedge spending cannot be done in a hurry, like the homestead stuff that takes time to find, buy, install, and implement. We have been doing that for a long time now, going to auctions and buying gear like a lard press, scythes, buying new pressure canners, and installing an LP gas stove with a big tank of gas (6 or 8 year's worth). LOTS and lots of canning jars and lids, seeds, garden supplies, and dry foods are high on the list, as available at that time. Mostly, we have those things done, but I am continually second-guessing myself about what I may have forgotten!

And, no, I don't think it will be long now. Too many threats to the dollar out there ATM.

[recoilless_57mm]

Patience: I agree that a person should have a hedge against inflation. The important thing with the metals is that you hold the real metal. If you are holding it on paper you have the age old issue of fraud, theft by bankrupty etc.. Some will say that you can't eat it or what have you. This is true. It is also short sighted to think that just food and a few animals will get through the hardest of times.

My folks were depression people. If I learned anything it was to be frugel. Fix it, trade for it or do without. Buying something was reserved for the very necessities in life. Some food, taxes, heating, shelter to mention a few.

Major thing my folks had was a plan or goal they wanted to work towards. They did this with laser focus. They let little stand in their way of their goals. They only deviated from their plan if they could find no solution to the issue. In other words they only modified the path to the goal not the goal.

I was taught to hedge my bet. Metals are just that. I would not hold a great deal of my assets in metals. I would hold some though. I would hold some in land, historically good stocks, land and everyday necessities. Those that can have animals as well are one up on those that can't. I live in a small town. I have to hunt for my meat. I have a brother that has a farm so I can also get my off the hoof meat there if I have to.

To be off the grid is in my opinion an illusion. That is unless you have money to through away or you want to live like folks in the third world. I have had my wind generators, solar panels & solar heat. Some folks will be required to have these devices simply because they have no other choice. It may come to pass that the grid will become more expensive than the alternate device. I doubt this will happen anytime soon in this country.

If the crap in this country really hits the fan it will be a whole new world for a lot of us. I pray we are smarter than that. My fear is we are still to FDH to avoid the crap. This is why I prepare. I figure that most people want the life of a child and the illusion of free!

OT

[patience]

recoilless_57mm,

Yes. Own the metal and have it in your hand. To deal with what we could see in the US, I aspire to a 1920's lifestyle. Not there yet, but on the way. Not my idea of a good time, either, but I know how it works, and can do it. To achieve that, a community is necessary, to trade for what one doesn't grow, make, or have. There is at least a strong flavor of that trading community where we live, much of it operating, and a lot more that could.

My folks also were Depression survivors, from whom I learned a lot. I got a taste of it growing up in the 1950's, during the recession Post-Korean War.

Silver is just my hedge to get our property taxes paid. We could make it otherwise for absolute necessities. It might mean 'taters for breakfast, beans for lunch, and beans and 'taters for supper, but we have done it before. :(

[patience]

The Inflation vs Deflation debate still rages in financial circles, and I don't claim to know any more than the next guy about what the outcome will be. THAT is why I hold both cash and silver. A third possibility is "stagflation", the worst of all worlds, as in the 1970's, where inflation raged while the general economy slowed to a crawl. I feel like I have to at least address all those possibilities.

Presently, there is a furor on the internet about a huge increase in total loans in the US economy, which the Federal Reserve numbers show as a $420 BILLION increase in a WEEK! Some say this is just an accounting change, based on new reporting requirements for banks, legislated a year or so ago. Even if that IS the case, the result means some serious balance sheet issues for some really big banks. See the discussion here:
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=134072

The site owner has a link to his take on it in the first post above.

However that works out, the consensus seems to be that this is not good. Things like this issue, the situation with Greece and the EU, and many others have made me put my preps into fast forward, because I can't know what is next.

[WileyCoyote]

Might want to read this fellow, too.

http://www.shtfplan.com/forecasting/armstrong-cyclical-turning-point-april-16-approaches_04092010

And he is now saying we are due for a stock market crash of monumental proportions.

I read that; and what struck me was that there is a crash predicted on April 16th - and today the Dow broke 11,000 for the first time in months, with everyone holding hands and cheering as the closing bell rang.

Too creepy.

Something that Tom Clancy wrote many years ago has stuck with me; when he wrote about the terrorist destruction of the Wall Street tickers - then "President Ryan" states that - the rise and the fall of the dollar is purely imaginary. If we set the numbers back to what they were before the terrorist act, everyone will believe it and we can go on as before - or words to that effect. These people really believe that all of these billions are just numbers; easily manipulated and changed at will, and everyone will believe it because they want to, have to, to maintain business as usual. I watch Greenspan and Bernanke, and they also appear to believe this to be true. How many others will and do? And how long before the very real numbers actually start to have an effect, a very real domino effect, no matter what anyone pretends?

[Theyeti]

I can say this about paper money....manipulated or not...it's better than virtual money in the sense that you hold it and see it(even if it isn't worth the denim it's made from). The times coming when the brainstorm for a more secure market(and money form) is to do away with paper money ALTOGETHER. Purely electronic transfers and if people can be fooled into thinking that funny money has REAL value they'll likely by the so called security of E-money in the future. Just imagine the levels of fiat manipulation the banksters will be capable of. We're halfway or more there already.

[sethwyo]

Most of the research I do has something happening in the next 3-6 months.

I tend to believe it. We simply can't keep printing money. I am trying to get ready.

sure we can! its simple too ! more money for everyone !

look at all the great things that have happened in the past when people printed all the money they wanted, with plenty of money for all, no one has to worry about bills, and they can simply buy everything they want and need. its too bad many people are so selfish about money, if everyone in the world was given a million dollars, no one would starve, as they could buy all the food they needed, and get all the medical care they need also, they could even invest their money to make EVEN MORE money, mabey by buying a printing press to grind out more $$$


id like to hear what you think is going to happen, why its going to happen, and what your doing right now, and what your going to do about it then.

[patience]

Quote:
"id like to hear what you think is going to happen, why its going to happen, and what your doing right now, and what your going to do about it then. "

Okay. I think the US govt has passed the point of being able to pay off its' debts. I don't expect them to do the "right thing", which IMHO would be to quit spending more than they take in taxes. That would put the country in a deeper depression, since govt spending is now about 12% of the economy, the last I read.

No, I think they will continue to spend as they are, and attempt to prop up whatever banks need it to keep the game going for a while. Eventually that will end, as other countries refuse to buy any more of our Treasury bonds. This COULD be happening now. Some form of default will follow, which could be defaulting on what we owe other countries (that kills our credit, so further business with them would have to be done on a cash basis). More likely, since Europe in particular, is hurting too, our central bank and theirs will come to some agreement to prop each other up. This is probably happening now, with currency swaps. That can be painful for the one on the losing end, so someone will "blink" and renege on the agreement.

Many possibilities from there, but the result will most likely be a DEVALUED dollar, in terms of commodities the US must import, such as oil. When oil goes ballistic, the US economy goes in the tank, because of our high usage in so many ways.

Somewhere in this melee, the US govt. will be starving for revenue due to fewer people paying taxes (no jobs), and corporations losing money, thus not paying much in taxes either. So, look for vastly increased taxes in some form.

If I'm right, then we all get a lot poorer, because our income won't change, but the cost of living will skyrocket. THAT is why we need to be as self reliant as possible, lest we be unable to afford our basic needs.

What I'm doing right now is a very long list, but the high spots are gardening, canning, water supply, etc..

[sethwyo]

Not YOU, i wanted to hear from lowetom

[AlchemyAcres]

Not YOU, i wanted to hear from lowetom

Whoa!!!

That was EXTREMELY rude!!!




~Martin

[CapeCMom]

Sorry Seth-you just sounded like a two year old. Where are your manners? This is a discussion open to all members not just between to you and lowetom.

[firegirl969]

Patience,

I am sorry you had to experience such rudeness! I enjoyed your post and thank you for your insight into this important matter. Blessings, firegirl

[patience]

firegirl,

Thanks, but I took no offense.

[sethwyo]

Thanks, iv been wondering about what you'all wore really about.

[CapeCMom]

OK-was that supposed to be insulting? Perhaps you don't mean it as it comes across Seth, but your words come across as crass sometimes.

[patience]

For all the latest dismal news affecting the dollar, and the US in general, read Jesse:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Scroll down the page about 2/3 of the way to the bottom , to read about a potential "run on the gold bank".
Quote:
"Highlights (aka Cliff's Notes):


There is obviously not enough gold and silver to cover the physical demand if holders of paper certificates in unallocated accounts demand delivery, and most likely only a small fraction could be covered with the practical supply available. Cash settlement will be enforced in the majority of cases.
Cash settlements would be for a price as of a 'record date' which is likely to be much less than the current physical price which would continue to run higher
There is more here than meets the eye - if you holding metal in an unallocated account you are likely to be considered an unsecured creditor
100:1 leverage is reckless no matter commodity or asset it involves - little room for error
There is no way to pay off the existing real US debt without inflating the currency in which the debt is held, to the point of hyperinflation
If the Fed's mortgage assets were marked to market the Fed itself would be insolvent
Anything involving paper claims payable in dollars (stocks, bonds) are a 'rope of sand,' a complete illusion that is fraught with risk
$5,500 per ounce of gold would be sufficient to back up the money supply (M1) as an alternative to hyperinflation and a reissuance of the currency. Target price is 5,000 - 10,000 per troy ounce in current issue US dollars
The break point will be when the US debt can no longer be rolled over. US will not be able to finance its debt without taking drastic action on the backing or nature of the currency
China needs to have about 4,000 tonnes of gold, and only has 1,000 tonnes today
China cannot fulfill this goal by taking even all of its domestic production for the next 10 years. The Chinese people are showing a strong preference to hold gold themselves.
From 1950 to 1980 the US gold supply declined from 20,000 to 8,000 tonnes, basically moving from the US mostly to Europe.
The Chinese are frustrated that they cannot obtain sufficient gold at reasonable prices as Europe did, to withstand the currency wars and the reworking of international finance
Holding your gold in a bank correlates you to the banking system, the very risks which you are trying to avoid"
Actually, the whole page is enlightening, and demonstrates what a precarious world we live in.

[patience]

The first big domino is falling over in Europe.

Greece has spent itself into oblivion. Their 10 year bonds were going at 8.89% yesterday, and the 2 year is now hitting 10.5%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?tic ... B2YR%3AIND (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB2YR%3AIND)

They already have some social unrest (strikes) going on from budget cuts.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... cords.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7615882/IMF-and-Bundesbank-fear-contagion-from-Greece-as-bond-spreads-soar-to-fresh-records.html)

European banks could take a hit from this pretty soon.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... rkets.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7621289/Escalating-Greek-default-fears-rock-Europes-debt-markets.html)

Greece now asks the IMF for a rescue.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greece ... 2010-04-23 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greece-formally-requests-financial-rescue-reports-2010-04-23)
Quote: "LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Greek government surrendered to the credit markets Friday, formally requesting the activation of a joint European Union-International Monetary Fund rescue plan after soaring borrowing costs were seen making it virtually impossible for the debt-strapped nation to meet its funding needs on the open market."

The US could look like this somewhat farther down the road. The "terms" to get an IMF loan are always brutal, involving major spending cuts that won't go down well in Greece, nor in the US, when it comes to that point. But first, I think we will see the PIIGS go down in a pile (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain), followed by UK, then maybe Japan, and the US. Okay, that's my guess. Anybody else want to take a stab at how it goes?

[patience]

Here's a summary of the govt deficits of Euro countries. None of them look too wonderful.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-22042010-BP/EN/2-22042010-BP-EN.PDF


Just a matter of time until the contagion spreads to the US.

[pcrowder]

I'd give ya my $0.02 worth, but d/h's business has slacked off lately due to the economy, so I can't spare the extra.

I personally feel that it is coming sooner than we think. You hear about all the BIG banks having financial trouble due to bad loans, well, it's hitting the smaller banks too, and with MORE devastating results.

Two weeks ago a dear neighbor of mine texted me in hysterics that she was at the bank - they had gone in for the renewal of their yearly operating loan on their farm, as they have every year for the last 20 years with no problem. (Their farm is their actual living, whereas d/h and I have a "hobby" farm and haven't made a profit yet, not even close.) Well, it turns out that the small neighborhood XYZ Bank that they've been dealing with for those 20 years made a bad loan to another, MUCH larger farm in the area. Well, that larger farm couldn't make their payments. This larger farm last month had a huge auction, selling off everything from combines to bale stackers and even some land. The problem was -- the auction did not bring NEAR enough $$ to make up for the bad loan, so XYZ Bank is now calling in the notes on several of the local farmers - all of whom have NEVER been late on a payment, nor ever declared bankruptcy like the LARGER farm did (several times, yet the banks kept loaning them money everytime they "reorganized" under a different owner(family member).)

So, with NO warning whatsoever, our dear neighbors suddenly had to sell all of their cattle, put all of the family land up for lease which is already planted in wheat (getting the best price they could to pay off the note that the bank was calling in), and now, instead of being full-time farmers with both the husband and wife each having part-time "we'll call ya as we need ya" jobs, they were suddenly unemployed in the blink of an eye. Thank goodness the husband's part-time job gave him a small raise and said he'd get more work from them, but nothing close to full time yet. The wife works part time at the school as an "aide", who gets called when someone calls off sick. School is out in a couple of weeks, so she will have ZERO income, and he will have something between part time and full time. The farm paid their health insurance, so now that is gone and they have to pay for that themselves. They drew a salary from the farm for their day to day living expenses - that is now gone. And - they have 4 kids which range in age from preschool to a junior in high school. They are still having to sell ALL of their equipment from the combine down to the small stock trailer and give all that $$ to the bank. This is the thanks they get for dutifully farming for 20 years, and for being productive, hard-working members of society. They are being punished because the BANK made BAD LOANS (repeatedly!) to this other MUCH larger, financially precarious farm. (Gee. sounds familiar, doesn't it? Fannie/Freddie made bad loans, taxpayers pay the price with the bailout.)

I can see this happening over and over across the country because it seems alot of banks make loans to anyone with a pulse, and even when the borrowers declare bankruptcy over and over again, the banks are more than willing to loan, knowing they'll evenutally get their money -- even it is ISN'T from the parties at fault. Innocent people are being sacrificed because the banks MUST recoup the money from their bad loans from any source available.

I have thought long and hard about the possibility of this happening to others - not just farmers, but other small businesses, and people with mortgages, and even individuals who make the mistake of having decent amounts of $$ saved in the bank for a rainy day, and the possibility of bank "holidays" or bank closures because of the current financial state of this country. Alot of the loans I've read have fine print that basically says that the lender can call in the note at any time at their discretion. I've always figured they wouldn't, because they wouldn't "gain" anything by doing so. Really - what company would call in a mortgage from someone who is paying on time and in full, knowing they'd be stuck with a house they'd have to try to sell all over again? Now I'm re-thinking my previous opinions on that. I think that it could happen, and WILL happen in many different areas of the economy, as the economy continues its downhill slide.

I fear that the above heart-breaking scenario could happen to anyone at any time that owes any significant amount of money to anyone in a position of power over them.

Just my $0.01

[tomato204]

Quoting PCCrowder..."I fear that the above heart-breaking scenario could happen to anyone at any time that owes any significant amount of money to anyone in a position of power over them."
All the more reason to be debt-free, even if you have to farm on a shoestring, you own the string!

[patience]

Most mortgages are "callable", at the option of the bank, for no good reason whatsoever, and being in good standing on the payments makes no difference at all. A building contractor in Evansville, IN was bankrupted in similiar fashion to what pcrowder told about. He had never been late on a payment, and had several construction loans at the bank, who MADE BAD LOANS to others, and called in HIS loan to make up for the losses.

The bank has to keep a certain minimum "reserve" of money, per the FDIC, relative to their loans. So, if enough loans go bad for them, those bad loans are no longer an "asset", but now a "liability", so the bank has to raise cash to cover that amount. If they don't raise the cash, the FDIC will put them into receivership and sell THEM out.

The retards at most banks can't seem to figure out that if they call in a GOOD loan, they can easily bankrupt the owner and have to sell the property at a LOSS, which will put them in WORSE shape than if they had left it the hell alone! But, being terrified retards, they will do it anyway, because all they see is the threat of receivership.

Bankers are one of the lower forms of life on the planet, IMHO. I heard too many tales from the last depression about how bankers got rich by foreclosing on farms. No love in my heart for any of them. It would pay most people to read a book, "The Creature From Jekyll Island", regarding the Federal Reserve banking cartel, and then decide if they might agree with me. Nasty bunch that has bankrupted the country, and now is pretty well telling our Congress what to do. As in give them the $700 billion bailout last year, or they would shut down the financial system and have the country under martial law! These are not nice people.

Oh, yeah. The FDIC is broke. And in debt to the govt $80 billon +, and the govt is in debt to the Federal Reserve who prints dollars and charges interest to the govt for the privilege!

[CapeCMom]

Didn't you watch the news? little Timmy Geitner and helicopter Ben Bernanke want to get rid of fractional reserve banking! Dimwits-how is this going to help any already bad situation?
They said it will allow banks to loan out more money-NO guys-it will help serve situations exactly like Pat's friend-for the worse.

I just read your story Pat, to DH and he is horrified. I feel really bad for them!

[patience]

I think you mean they are considering eliminating the reserve requirements. That is a last ditch effort to keep some banks open and functional, at least to a degree. Too many banks will soon be unable to meet the reserve requirements, is the problem. The FDIC being broke and not having enough auditors to close all these banks, and the number of banks in trouble will soon be much larger.

According the the woman who chairs the Congressional Oversight Committee for the TARP program, close to 3,000 midsize banks will be in trounble on Commercial Real Estate loans this year. Many of those loans, on shopping centers and suchlike, will be "underwater"--worth less than what is owed on them by year end. That means the lower property valuations (due to failing retail) put the banks in a position of being undercapitalized, affecting their reserve requirements.

Simple answer. Eliminate the reserve requirements! Yeah! THEN they can loan money without having any money at all! Only a desperate official would come up with such foolishness. This whole money/finance system is going to go up like Roman Candle, and it appears to me to not be far off.

[pcrowder]

I just read your story Pat, to DH and he is horrified. I feel really bad for them!

Yeah, so do I cape. My heart just BREAKS for them. They have truly put their heart and soul into their farm, and it's ALL GONE NOW. The wheat they so carefully planted is now leased to someone else, the animals they so lovingly cared for are now at the sale barn, and the equipment that they scrimped and saved to get and so painstakingly cared for is now headed to the auction block. It's absolutely horrible, and I wish I could do something. I keep sending her "thinking of you" and "praying for you" e-cards. I don't dare go back over and visit her quite yet -- we both end up breaking down sobbing and it just makes it more painful.

I have decided that I, like patience, think of bankers as dispicable human beings. How they can throw a group of honest responsible people "under the bus" because they carelessly gave loans repeatedly to people who kept declaring bankruptcy is unforgiveable to me. There is a special place in Hell for vermin like that. I have decided that I am going to scrimp and save every stinking penny I can, and put it toward the principal of this farm (we only have 10 yrs left on the mortgage as we took out a 15 instead of a 30 yr one), even if it's only a stinking $10.00/month. I'm gonna start going through alot of my things and start trying to sell them on EBay before Obama decides to tax that too. I'm gonna thin my goat herd and sell a couple of
P-O-S cows before they get struck by lightning or get sick from the rotten unending rain. I'm gonna raise as much $$ as I can to get this mortgage paid down/off. I will NOT become an unsuspecting statistic, no matter what. As far as I am concerned, this has become my personal "war". I am not going to let the b*tards do the same thing to me that is happening across this country. I will beat them at their own game no matter what. I personally feel betrayed for what happened to my friend. Makes me wonder if this isn't part of the "master plan" to only have BIG corporate (gov't-run) farms, and run the little guy out of business.

Makes no matter, I guess - I am taking this personally, and I will NOT forget what the "system" has done to the little farmer, because I have seen the agony of it first-hand.

[patience]

In the 1930's, my uncle bought 636 acres for $10/acre =$6,360. He had all the money to pay for it, but it had no house on it. He borrowed $636 = 10% one year balloon note to repair a chicken house to live in, and buy livestock and put in a crop. Had to had to have a CO-SIGNER to get the loan! Another uncle cosigned.

The cosigner entered a business partnership the next year and warned my unlce he could not cosign for the note renewal due to his partnership agreement. Uncle had it covered, he contracted with a cannery in Louisville to put out 40 acres of green beans. The cannery would supply seed and labor to pick the beans, but uncle had to haul them. He had a truck. The proceeds would pay off the farm and give him plenty to live on for the next year.

Cannery went bankrupt as the beans were getting ripe. Family all picked beans and helped him raise enough money to pay the interest on the note. But the bank would not renew the note without a cosigner with collateral 10X the loan amount. Nobody could meet that, so the bank took the farm!

Uncle lived with his mother in law for a couple years, and for a time had only turnips to eat, since that ws all that was ripe in their garden at the time. He said you can get real tired of turnips 3 times a day after a while. After that, he never borrowed money as long as he lived, and he ALWAYS had plenty of stuff canned, dried, smoked, and either growing or on the hoof to eat.

This bank repeated the procedure in the area until they owned an entire small river valley of over 3,000 acres, all adjoining. Time went by, and the families all remembered. None of them would do business with that bank, and told everyone they knew. The bank went bust and was liquidated about 15 years later.

Expect to see more of that.

[pcrowder]

What a heartbreaking story, Patience. And I agree - I DO expect to hear of it happening more and more. I am lucky that our mortgage is through a Federal Credit Union, but I'm sorry - I trust NO banker, not even them. Not after this. This couple is 15 year younger than I am -- I cannot imagine having to go through what they've gone through at 55, or 60, or 65 yrs old. I'm afraid it would not end at all well for the banker and in turn, for me either. That is why I am determined. With even small-town banks making bad loans, and nobody being held responsible for doing so, I see that this will soon snowball, and there will be bank failures of a magnitude that we can't begin to imagine right now.

I cannot imagine having to eat turnips 3 times a day, but I know people do what they have to do to survive. And, I think all of us on here are ALOT stronger and more resilient than we give ourselves credit for. I have a motto scrolling as the screensaver on my computer "That which does not kill us makes us stronger."

And I try to remember that saying every time things even look a little rough, because I feel the WORST is yet to come for all of us, and we ain't seen nothin' yet.

[CapeCMom]

Even though what we are going through right now with our bank does not compare it is making me really nervous. I have my mortgage with Bank of America (Egads right?). My March mortgage payment-well some jerk over there didn't post the payment right (they put it into escrow acct and towards the principal instead of just a mortgage payment)so I keep getting phone calls from them saying I am late on my mortgage-as soon as we think we have gotten it straightened out, we get another letter or a phone call from them wondering if I am going to make my April Mortgage payment even though I have already paid it. One of the letters even had the wrong amount due on the the mortgage! When I called they had no idea where the amount had come from.
They don't even have my social security number right and have refused to fix it even though I have talked to several people to fix it-so when they call, they will only talk to DH until he gives them permission to talk to me (I handle all of the bills). I keep hearing all of these horror stories about Bank of America and I am getting nervous that I will be the next one to come home and find that my locks have been changed. I have this awful feeling that I will have to hire a lawyer soon if they don't get their act straightened out.

I will pray for your friends, my heart goes out to them. Stories like yours Pat and Patience really make me angry also!

[momma_to_seven_chi]

My March mortgage payment-well some jerk over there didn't post the payment right (they put it into escrow acct and towards the principal instead of just a mortgage payment)so I keep getting phone calls from them saying I am late on my mortgage-as soon as we think we have gotten it straightened out, we get another letter or a phone call from them wondering if I am going to make my April Mortgage payment even though I have already paid it. One of the letters even had the wrong amount due on the the mortgage! When I called they had no idea where the amount had come from.
They don't even have my social security number right and have refused to fix it even though I have talked to several people to fix it-so when they call, they will only talk to DH until he gives them permission to talk to me (I handle all of the bills). I keep hearing all of these horror stories about Bank of America and I am getting nervous that I will be the next one to come home and find that my locks have been changed. I have this awful feeling that I will have to hire a lawyer soon if they don't get their act straightened out.



Our power company did that to us a few years back. They were determined that we owed them $254. I paid it. Then the calls started. The "Computer" put it on the wrong acct. It took months to get it fixed. My husband kept telling them that it was the fool who ran the computer at fault. We must have called 12 times and talked to 12 different people. FINALLY, someone gave us a supervisor who fixed it. That was just a utility payment. Having a mortgage get that messed up must be really upsetting.

[CapeCMom]

It is! Last night during dinner, the phone rang and my son looked at the caller ID-"Mom it's bank of America". I couldn't even answer it-I will talk to them today when I am in a better frame of mind. They would not have liked me if I had answered it last night! I said to DH-Watch it's the same stuff again. He didn't doubt it! I am sure they will call again today!

[patience]

Is the US facing a cash crunch?

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmark ... ?page=full (http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/cash-crunch-gordon-long-treasury-auction/4/23/2010/id/27938?page=full)



Quote: "The US government is caught in a cash vise and is being squeezed between too slow a rebound in tax revenues and the limitations on how quickly it can realistically take its funding requirements to the US Treasury auction. The US Treasury was saved in March by what the government reports as “proprietary receipts.” Those receipts require an explanation that isn’t well publicized since it begs the question of what happens next month without the $117 billion journal entry."

If not for that mysterious appearance of $117 billion, we'd be right in the soup with Greece now. Wonder where THAT came from? The traders at Tickerforum seem to think it came from TARP repayments, and a cut in FDIC spending. http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs- ... 119&page=1 (http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=135119&page=1)

Or, was it a digital entry from the FED, just money out of thin air? :secret:

They will game the system to the last. How long that is possible, I can't tell, but it is obvious that some serious gaming is going on now. Makes me wonder how long until I get a SS check that bounces. :eek:

[pcrowder]

Cape -- the mortgage on the other house we own (and can't sell due to the economy) was just recently bought up by BOA. I have horror stories about my late mom's investment account at BOA that would curl your hair, (and which I am still dealing with!), but it would take 2 pages on here and I won't bore ya'll. Suffice it to say, BOA is at the TOP of the lists of banks I don't trust. I'm still trying to get the $$ out of my late moms account, but good luck on that. We put a change of address in for her 2 years ago when we moved her out here with us, and they STILL haven't gotten it changed. It's insane.

And momma- I just got my account debited by the power company (we set it up when we moved out here to make sure the bill is always paid on time), and the biggest bill we've ever gotten was $354.00/month. Well, I just checked my online bank statement, and my account has been zapped by them for $741.00 for last month's bill!!!!!!!!! And, since it's the weekend, I can't get hold of them till Monday! The best I can hope for is that they apply it to next month's bill (they will NOT credit back), but that is an extra $400.00++++ that I hadn't counted on coming out of my account that I could use for my feed bill. I swear I'm about to get rid of ALL of my online auto-payments and go back to checks. That way I control how much gets paid to whom and when. There are just sooo many bills to keep track of between the business, the farm, and our personal stuff that I would spend all my time trying to make sure nothing is late.

I am terrified that banks like BOA which are SO powerful will become nationalized, and then we as consumers will have ZERO recourse against them, as they will now be the "gov't bank".

By the way, cape - there was a thing on FoxNews (search their website for the story) 2 or 3 wks ago about BOA screwing up and selling at auction a couples house who had NEVER been late on their payments. Some guy shows up at their front door and says, "hi, I just bought your house"....wow.

The whole economy/banking system/health care system is getting far too precarious. I think the SHTF is coming fast and furious, and unless you are totally without debt, you are in deep trouble. As someone with TWO mortgages, I find myself in that group. The way I look at it, if things get bad, I will dump the other house for $100k more than I owe on it ($80k and it is appraised at over $320k) just to get out from under it, and take the money that is left over and pay off this one. Then I'm not stuck with either, and this farm is paid off. I can make enough through egg/chicken/goat/pig sales every year to squeak by and cover the property taxes on this place. The problem is -- trying to sell the other one. NO ONE is lending, so NO ONE is buying. Oh well, I'll worry about that tomorrow. I need to sit down and re-prioritize my SHTF financial "game plan" A, B, C, and D to cover worst-case scenarious. Think I need to figure out an "E"!

[pcrowder]

Makes me wonder how long until I get a SS check that bounces. :eek:

You and MILLIONS of others. What is Washington gonna do when millions of angry seniors march on Washington with bounced check notices in their hands? It's NOT gonna be pretty.

[AzLoneRider]

It is! Last night during dinner, the phone rang and my son looked at the caller ID-"Mom it's bank of America". I couldn't even answer it-I will talk to them today when I am in a better frame of mind. They would not have liked me if I had answered it last night! I said to DH-Watch it's the same stuff again. He didn't doubt it! I am sure they will call again today!

We have owned our house/property for seven years. We have never missed a payment, never been late on a payment, and always sent a check when the mortgage payment was due. In December the mortgage company started calling us to find out on what date we were going to make our payment. We weren't late mind you. They just wanted to verify that we knew the payment was due. I was so pi**ed. I asked the lady to review my history for the last 7 years and check for a late or non-payment. When she said there was none I told her the bank would get the money just like every month. In January the bank called again.... This time I was less than civil. We got another phone call in February, I spoke to a manager and ended up having to write a letter to their complaint department, since then we haven't had any phone calls.

The point is, the banks are hurting for cash and it's only getting worse as the days go on.

[CapeCMom]

Wow! I am glad I am not the only one who is going through this stuff! I have a feeling AZ that no matter how much we complain, they will still call. You're right-they are hurting for cash, and there might be some who are intimidated enough to send a payment early.

I feel horrible for all of the seniors out there-I worry about how they are going to eat much less pay their bills in the years ahead. Those who rely on Social Security might be out of luck.

Thanks Patience for keeping up with the financials! These phony accounting practices are going to catch up with them. It's only a matter of time! Then we ALL loose!

[Steve_L]

So, with NO warning whatsoever, our dear neighbors suddenly had to sell all of their cattle, put all of the family land up for lease which is already planted in wheat (getting the best price they could to pay off the note that the bank was calling in), and now, instead of being full-time farmers with both the husband and wife each having part-time "we'll call ya as we need ya" jobs, they were suddenly unemployed in the blink of an eye.

That's the scam of banking. You can bet that the owner of the large farm that broke the bank was working with the banker to force all the smaller farmers out of business. Then the owner of the large farm re-incorporates as a new entity (the first one having obviously gone bankrupt) and buys up all they assets they had before plus all the other farms that were called on their loans for a song.

You learn this trick playing "Railroad Tycoon" and reading a little history. It's a terrible thing, what they do. I fear having loans and when I get a homestead, I want to own it free and clear just because I don't want this to happen to me.

[LJH]

Has anyone here heard a Dave Ramsey B of A rant? He hates them with a flaming purple passion and says they're one of the worst run banks in the country. Gee, ya think?

His prediction is that they'll soon implode under their own incompetence and get bought out by some other soul-less mega bank. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, probably just more of the same. :sad:

[patience]

Banks are predators. They prey on the little fish (us) and when they get the chance they prey on each other. The FDIC has taking over insolvent small banks and folding them into larger banks, with the FDIC taking the hit for the difference between the failed bank's assets and liabilities.

As this process continues, we find there are fewer small banks and more midsize banks. Then, the midsize banks start to fail (because they got deep into commercial real estate, which is now in the tank. The FDIC will fold the midsize banks into larger ones to be absorbed. This process has to end when there are no larger banks to absorb those in trouble.

When we get a Citibank, or a Chase going down, it is game over--just a matter of time and how many games the govt can play along the way. When the govt owns enough of the assets of the large banks, as they do with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they are effectively nationalized whether they call it that or not. Just like General Motors--still GM, but now that means Government Motors.

There is a lot of politicking these days about regulating banks. Who regulates the regulators? That's our problem now. Reminds me of the parable about the small wild west town, who hired a really notorious bad gunfighter to be their Sheriff to clean up the town. He did clean out the crop of outlaws, then HE ran the town. So, who's gonna control the gunfighter?

[patience]

Greek bond yields are going parabolic. Over 13%, the last I found.

http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=135258 (http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=135258)

This morning the yield on the 2 yr. bond was going up 1% PER HOUR! Since bonds have a fixed payout ($100 US savings bond pays $100 at maturity), the initial selling price determines the yield, or effective interest rate. If a $100 US bond sold for $95, the yield would be 5%. This means that Greek bonds offered at auction aren't bringing a very good price, and this is deteriorating HOURLY. This situation is referred to as a bond market "dislocation", and generally thought to be the end of any government's ability to finance itself.

Coming soon to a bond market much closer to us in the US, IMHO. :fie: It was an obscure European bank going down that started the last depression, IIRC.

[CapeCMom]

I thought Merkel agreed on the bailout? Why would their bonds go South like that? I had heard that the amount they owed was far worse than what was first reported but something else must be triggering this!

[patience]

Merkel has a whole host of qualifications and criteria specified that Greece assuredly won't meet.
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=135277
*MERKEL SAYS STATE GUARANTEES CRUCIAL TO AID GREECE
*MERKEL: GERMAN AGREEMENT ON GREEK AID MAY TAKE FEW MORE DAYS
*MERKEL SAYS GREECE MUST ACCEPT `TOUGH' CONDITIONS FOR YEARS
*MERKEL SAYS GERMANY WANTS `SUSTAINABLE' GREEK PLAN
*MERKEL SAYS GERMANY HAS BIG OBLIGATION TO ENSURE STABLE EURO
*MERKEL SAYS GERMANY WILL HELP GREECE IF PRECONDITIONS MET
GERMANY'S MERKEL SPEAKS ON GREECE RESCUE PACKAGE: LIVE <GO>
*MERKEL SAYS GREECE NEEDS TO SAVE MORE
*MERKEL SAYS GREECE MUST SHOW IT'S ON PATH TO SUSTAINABLE BUDGET
*GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERKEL SPEAKING IN BERLIN
*MERKEL SAYS STRAUSS-KAHN SAYS TALKS ON GREEK AID TILL MAY
*MERKEL SAYS MUST SHOW IT'S ON PATH TO SUSTAINABLE BUDGET
+ German Parliament to Draft Bill For Greek Bail-out Loan
*MERKEL SAYS NO DECISION ON AID UNTIL IMF AGREEMENT

The Greek govt will face severe reactions to any austerity measures. Some have suggested it could cause a civil war, or at least the fall of the present govt.

That all could very well be analagous to the US cutting all the transfer payment programs dramatically. BIG no-no for politicians, so in any country where govt handouts are going on, this is a problem.

I don't think Germany will help Greece, because of too much backlash at home. Also, the Germans are afraid that it would be a precedent that would encourage several other EU countries to ask for help. (Spain, Portugal, Italy) Germany is full of excuses and delays now, doing a lot of foot dragging before committing anything to Greece. So, the IMF will get the nod, most likely, and chaos to follow in Greece, IMHO, as the IMF imposes austerity measures.

OR, Greece could exit the EU and default, issue a "new" (devalued) drachma, and play the same debt-song again, maybe? Any direction they go, it is probably the end of the present govt there. :confused:

I think that the market figured out that Germany was a no-show on this, and realized what is next.

[CapeCMom]

I thought I read today also that Merkel is now threatening Greece with loosing the Euro?
Wouldn't that make it even worse if they had to rely on their own currency instead of being able to trade Euros?

[patience]

No doubt it would be worse for Greece if they are booted out of the EU. The Euro's big appeal was stability. Without that, Greece is toast in the international markets, considering their financial troubles.

The Euro was predicated on sound financial management by member govts, so, since Greece flew in the face of that, they are getting their just desserts, IMHO. No gloating here, though. We could be in the same boat before long.

[yardburd]

Most of the people reading this post are not old enough to remember October, 1962. We came within 17 minutes of total SHTF. I was there, witnessed that. After the Air Force, I worked for a company which was associated with "The Sponsor". (Anyone know who that is?) The work I did there convinced me to retire early and move as far away as possible from Primary and Secondary targets. Trust me, both sides take really stupid chances where a miscalculation could result in a party to which EVERYONE is invited. That was fifteen years ago and nothing has happened yet. Frankly, I no longer try to second guess the idiot egos who run this show. Like the sniper motto says, "Don't bother to run....You'll only die tired."

[patience]

Oct. 1962, Cuban Missle Crisis, for those who don't remember. Lots of info at the link below.
http://www.johndclare.net/EC7.htm

Everybody I knew at the time was trying to come up with a fallout shelter. Yeah, TPTB are stone cold idiots.

I heard from Reserve guy back in the 1970's, that it was common knowledge then, that if anything threatened our oil supply, the nuclear card was on the table.

No telling what the heck they have in mind for economic collapse/SHTF scenarios. :eek:

[CapeCMom]

Back in the 70's we lived on S.A.C. bases. Dad was a navigator for "the bomb". Scary place to live-we used to get scared at night when the planes warmed up at 2 in the morning revving their engines to go on patrol (or whatever they were doing). We were always a target then because of the Nukes on base-I am still a target now. Having P.A.V.E. P.A.W.S
as a neighbor (only a few miles from my house) makes it so-we wouldn't know what hit us-may be that's a blessing.

[doxie3]

It isa different world today. But is it. Amazing how in the 50'-60' bomb shelters were deemed vital and how we were taught to duck under the desk.

One difference today is all the worlds economies are tied together. As one goes so does the rest. At least it looks that way.

[CapeCMom]

Greece's bond rating was down graded to junk today- Portugal was downgraded to Negative.
Who is next?

[pcrowder]

Greece's bond rating was down graded to junk today- Portugal was downgraded to Negative.
Who is next?

I fear we ALL are.........

[patience]

I might as well guess. How about Estonia, Latvia, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy, then UK, Japan, & US? Could be some serious collateral damage in European banks after a couple or three go down, so after the most risky ones, it is hard to say who's next.

Goldman Sucks, er, SACHS, could have some serious money at risk in those places, too. Uh, couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks, IMHO, if they get hammered in the melee. But, that would mean some significant problems in the US. Like doxie3 said, we are all tied together today. Now THAT is a scary thought! :fie:

[Norcal Steve]

Major market response, down 2% or more...futures trading lower. Australian inflation reported up .9%, more than expected for the first quarter...Gold continues upward climb...


Norcal Steve

[patience]

KA BOOM!

Greek 2 yr. bond hits 38%.
"The two-year Greek bond yield GR2YT=TWEB briefly hit more than 38 percent earlier in indicative trading - eight times the level at which the EU plans to lend to Greece."
http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNe ... RS20100428 (http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idINLDE63R0RS20100428)

NOBODY is going to lend money into that situation. Greece is toast.

[CapeCMom]

People in Greece are going to riot big time. I know things have been tense over there already, but it is going to get REALLY ugly now. It will be interesting to watch only because it may be a reminder of what could happen here if we follow down that same path.
Market watch for today! I expect the dollar to be stronger? Which means the market will be down again. I heard our own 1-3-6 auction was not that great in itself- we had to buy almost 70% of our own bonds.

[patience]

"...we had to buy almost 70% of our own bonds. "

That is a harbinger of doom for a government. No country can live on Monopoly money for long. :fie:

[CapeCMom]

I firmly believe it's one of the main reasons the FED does not want to be audited. It will show real numbers and I am afraid, we have been monetizing our debt A LOT more than what was said. I think our actual debt burden is so through the roof that they know their gooses will be cooked if the actual numbers show up on paper somewhere. People will know for sure that it has all been a lie.
I don't know how much longer we can keep doing it either. Bernanke said that they were going to stop buying our own bonds but I don't know how he thinks that can happen. Obama isn't going to cut the budget-we all know that-so how is this going to work out? Perhaps he is hoping that Europe will collapse so that countries will flock to the dollar?.....Don't know what his warped little mind thinks of sometimes!

[offgridbob]

I will take a shot at this and say that we will be good for maybe another 5 years before we tank. There are to many things that are in place for us to go down any sooner then that. All of the other nations have to much invested in the USA to let us go belly up. But with that said things will start to go down hill. Our only salvation is Gods mercy and if we can get back to the constitution.

[recoilless_57mm]

Most of the people reading this post are not old enough to remember October, 1962. We came within 17 minutes of total SHTF. I was there, witnessed that. After the Air Force, I worked for a company which was associated with "The Sponsor". (Anyone know who that is?) The work I did there convinced me to retire early and move as far away as possible from Primary and Secondary targets. Trust me, both sides take really stupid chances where a miscalculation could result in a party to which EVERYONE is invited. That was fifteen years ago and nothing has happened yet. Frankly, I no longer try to second guess the idiot egos who run this show. Like the sniper motto says, "Don't bother to run....You'll only die tired."

I have to agree with you yardburd. There is a fair share of posters that have only read about it. We came very, very close. My concern is the AH's at the top of this mess will continue until only a world wide party becomes the final answer. I feel it is a solution to cover a groups of spineless courards. The human race has not come far. As far as the group you mention, it is anyones guess. I have known a few groups that sound similar to the sponsor. They come and go as needed by the group "they" who ever they are. There was another post that asked about the "they" groups. I think it boils out to anyones guess. Most likely it is not a group that works in our behalf.

I love a snipers sense of humor! It sort of goes with you can run but you can't hide. There is no substitute for a well developed skill set!

I am glad to see this post survive for such a long period of time. The basic question asked is remarkably good. With all the input from so many perspectives I feel the basic question will be answered soon enough for folks to act or respond. It is my hope that folks continue to mobilize for November of this year regardless of what may come to pass. A world wide party is not a solution I would look forward to. It would indicate a total break down in our country as well. In short NOT GOOD. However, with that said if the idiots coaling this train back us all into a corner. Well then, we all get a chance to play. No one with a pulse and resperation will be left out IMO. No matter where we go for a time.

Wishing everyone well,
Charlie

[CapeCMom]

I will take a shot at this and say that we will be good for maybe another 5 years before we tank. There are to many things that are in place for us to go down any sooner then that. All of the other nations have to much invested in the USA to let us go belly up. But with that said things will start to go down hill. Our only salvation is Gods mercy and if we can get back to the constitution.

Gosh Flatwater, I hope you are right about the five year time table. The longer we all have to prepare and get our homesteads in order the better off we will all be.
I am afraid that the two things that you mentioned as our salvation are under attack - Christianity and the Constitution. The media loves to bash both don't they?

[CapeCMom]

They just downgraded Spain. Whew boy.......

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-04-28/spain-s-long-term-credit-rating-lowered-to-aa-by-s-p-outlook-negative.html

[recoilless_57mm]

It is my opinion that a person has to read, watch and listen during these times very carefully and often. The dynamics involved are to great to say 1yr or 5years IMO. These are troubled times as we all know. We are not the only players in the game. Other countries are in much worse shape than the US. I liken this to a set of dominos stood on end. You can put your safeties in but you still run the risk of them all going down. I feel if the US was to fail at this time the world would economy would soon fail. It would most likely bring about that party we should all dread. The major safety IMO is china. If the world organization is able to put her inplace before we fail I feel we will simply become another england, france, germany, canada or what ever socialist country you desire to compare us to.

Yes and YES! We need to get back to our God & Constitution. I think there was another poster that said I know the enemy, he or she is me! It is our basic responsibility to stand and fight. Get involved in our country again. It is a part of our lives as we can see.

JMO, Charlie

[patience]

Greece isn't the only story in Europe. Spain, Portugal, and Ireland also have their troubles. Banks throughout Europe are exposed to debt from all of them. See the chart partway down the page here:
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs- ... 473&page=2 (http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=135473&page=2)

Germany, France and theUK are in pretty deep with the PIIGS. The contagion could spread rapidly over there. EU and IMF officials are pretty tense about this. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... escue.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comm ... escue.html)

Spain has its' problems:
"A freak leak of the Spanish unemployment number by the National Statistical Institute (INE), the equivalent to the DOL, was captured by Spanish daily ABC.es (http://translate.google.com/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.es%2F20100427%2Feconomia-laboral%2Fdesliz-desvela-tasa-paro-20100427.html&sl=es&tl=en), according to which for the first time since 1997, the unemployment rate in the country that was notched by S&P today, will surpass 20%."
That from http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spanish-q1-2010-unemployment-number-accidentally-leaked-surpasses-20-first-time-1997

The whole of Europe is a disaster waiting to happen.

[patience]

Britain has its' worries now.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... Spain.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7649392/Warning-for-Britain-as-financial-chaos-spreads-to-Spain.html)

Quote: "Britain’s government deficit this year will be bigger than that of either Greece or Spain, and some City analysts believe the UK’s AAA credit rating could be cut, driving up interest rates and raising the prospect of Britain being bailed out by the International Monetary Fund."

snip

"Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, insisted that Britain was in a “very, very, very different situation” from Greece, because the UK retained its AAA rating.

But Neil Mackinnon, an economist from VTB Capital, said it was “a mystery” that Britain had not yet been downgraded."


So, we have Greece already in the fire (pun intended), Spain roasting over it, Britain in the skillet heating up, and Germany, France, and Switzerland at risk of catastophic losses if the others go up in flames. Meanwhile, Germany and the IMF are dithering about what is to be done, as Merkel worries over coming elections. This will not end well. :fie:

And it is unfolding rather quickly.

[MrGreenJeans]

You are so right about the bad ending thang. It will hit over night, bam the markets in Asia will loose all confidence ( yea right ) in Europe and then the downgrading will be across the board. I look for no bumpy ride over here, it will be one heck of a train wreck! head on crash they know its coming and don't give a crap. Remember they live off of us. Our leaders will live very comfortable for they are special. While the general public are sifting dirt for grubs, they will be no missed meals in the whitehouse. Any one person or group looking self sufficient better not look it. They will be branded a hoarder.

[WileyCoyote]

Back in the 70's we lived on S.A.C. bases. Dad was a navigator for "the bomb". Scary place to live-we used to get scared at night when the planes warmed up at 2 in the morning revving their engines to go on patrol (or whatever they were doing). We were always a target then because of the Nukes on base-I am still a target now. Having P.A.V.E. P.A.W.S
as a neighbor (only a few miles from my house) makes it so-we wouldn't know what hit us-may be that's a blessing.

I grew up on a MAC; my dad retired from being a loadguesser. In the 60's it WAS very scary; even though I was just a 5 year old kid in '62. After he retired in '64 and we moved off base, Dad refused to build a bomb shelter; having the MAC, a Polaris missile base, and a Navy base all within 20 miles from us meant that we would go first and fast, as he put it. He kept a bottle of 12 year-old single-malt at the ready, because we weren't going to flee, we were going to sit outside at the picnic table, watch the nuclear skylight and make kewl shadows on the walls. They estimated we would have 12 minutes from the first alert to the first glow. I grew up with the same attitude as the people who live in the shadow of Mt. Vesuvius - Shite happens, no sense living in fear.

It is this reasonable, calm, do-what-you-can-let-the-chips-fall, fatalistic attitude that has stood me in good stead throughout my life. So now we live over 200 miles from the nearest base, 600 miles from the closest fault line, and just as far from Yellowstone, and over 2000 miles from any ocean. Whatever man-made or natural event happens, we live far enough away to put up with fallout and attempt to survive a 'nuclear winter', ash fall, whatever. Those who might be caught up in it will be too busy or too dead to get this far. And I feel the same way about the financial crises that sweep by - we are off the radar, out of sight, out of mind. I spent 20 years being involved in the frenetic busyness of endless political upheaval, and watched as each new generation of political phony danced to the fore, preaching and leaching. Now I just sit back, stock up, enjoy my critters and plants and life, and watch it all tumble around their pointy little ears. Yawn. I don't think it will happen with a bang, but with a whimper - we have been falling this way ever since I can remember, and still they struggle to pull their little strings and stop or slow the cascade. How many endless years can you watch the California seacoast get fires, burn off vegetation, get rain, and slide inexorably toward the sea before you realize that those stilts won't support your house forever? Shrug.

[Not2L8]

Now I just sit back, stock up, enjoy my critters and plants and life, and watch it all tumble around their pointy little ears.

Wiley, I envy you. Oh how I long for peace and quite. I want to be so disconnected from the rat race that if there were another Great depression, I would never know.

My current bad situation hasn't changed much lately. I seem to be just getting by. But, hopefully, I'll get to where I'm headed before things get too bad.

[cinok]

I like the idea of the 12 y/o malt just in case might as well go with a smile and buzz lol

[sewserious]

It won't be long now. They were just talking on the news that grocery prices, especially meat, are expected to rise 23% over the next few weeks! Prices on everything are going up and pretty quickly at that. If you don't already have it put by, there probably isn't time before it all blows up.

[patience]

Panic is not a good survival strategy! I don't THINK it is time to panic yet. Nobody knows. The best thing, it seems to me, is to go about an orderly program of improving your situtation as best you can.

Although it does take time for thse things to unfold, the European situation is worsening pretty fast. For the moment, that is good for the dollar relative to the Euro, but there are other factors that could put the US in a bind. Overall, I expect we will see rising prices on food for several reasons, not the least of which is a reduced crop last year, and a pretty fixed demand level.

The folowing report is by the financial research head at Citibank. (I don't care for them much, but they do have sharp people!) He sees a worsening govt debt picture for the forseeable future, that will surely lead to trouble.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/willem-buiter-issues-his-most-dire-prediction-yet-sees-unprecedented-fiscal-crises-rampant-u

His take is that of all the industrailized nations, the US is somewhat more likely to take an inflationary path to try to get out of the debt problem. Austerity is NOT popular in the US!

If that is true, and I think it is, then we need to focus on ways to reduce our need to buy things. That is, try to get some PRODUCTIVE things going--stuff that you can do to provide your for your needs on an ongoing basis. Next, of course, is to hedge against higher future prices by buying ahead whatever you are sure to use. This is not news to anyone here, but it bears repeating I think.

When? He doesn't say. But here is a quote from the brainy people at Zerohedge about the report:
Quote:
"Buiter presents a game theory type analysis, which concludes that the US and other sovereigns will soon be forced into fiscal austerity. Among his critical observations (we recommend a careful read of the entire 68 pages), are that the US is highly polarized, and that the Fed, which is "the least independent of leading central banks" would be willing to implement "inflationary monetisation of public debt and deficits than other central banks." The next step of course would be hyperinflation. And Buiter sees America as the one country the most likely to follow this route. Most troublingly, Buiter predicts that a massive crisis is the only thing that can break the political gridlock in the US in order to fix the broken US fiscal situation."

That says we should watch the credit rating of the US, as shown by the market in INTEREST RATES on US debt. There's your indicator folks. When the US has to pay more interest on its' bonds (like happened to Greece), then we have a big problem.