How to survive peak oil?

[alma]

How about gathering all the ideas we can, while we may.

Someone said it will be within a couple of years when we will be having a real crisis.

How about insulin and other meds? Does anyone know about some of these things too.

A lot of things we thought about before y2k ought to be helpful. I have lots of floppies re this era. love, alma

[lostinthewoods]

alma,

I've found that I kind of go through spells with my homesteading. There will be times when that's all I can do or think about and others where I'm just too busy to think about it although it is always in the back of my mind.

With all of the uncertaintanty around right now it is paramount in my mind once again. I find myself looking more towards employment that will not be affected so much as oil prices continue to rise, as well as stocking up just that little bit more each time I go to the store.

As for the meds question, I too have been wondering about that lately. Not the insulin as we're very blessed not to have to worry about anything such as that, however I was wondering about the shelf life of certain things (tylenol, advil, multi vitamins, cough syrup, benadril, etc.). My wife and I were talking just last night about if there was a big interruption how would those who rely on meds survive (diabetics, and organ transplant recipients)

IMHO....... I don't really see a huge disruption in the world like I had expected on Y2K however I think the ability of the "common man" to afford these things may be extremely difficult in the not so distant future.

As for your floppies, I'd highlight the info you deem really important and print as much of it as possible just in case the compuker,,well,, pukes. I'm going through all of my books and such right now and scanning and printing all I can incase we'd ever need it and not have the laptop. (just my paranoia)

sorry for rambeling,
lost

[hillsidedigger]

I expect the really bad consequences of 'peak oil' are more than a couple of years away, more like 5 to 15 years and it will just get worse from there.

Unlike the Y2K scare, the consequences of 'peak oil' are really out there and will happen.

The question may be not which of current necessities we feel we will need but rather which of the current necessities can we do without?

[Weezin]

Peak Oil, that about says it all.
I bought 300 gals. of heating oil last week and wrote a check for $1015.00
Dont know how much longer I can do this..........Weez

[lostinthewoods]

We gave up on heating our home with petroleum products (propane) years ago, now we heat with wood.

Just think we made this decision before "peak oil"

lost

[Southern_Gent]

Alma,

*A few years ago, I compiled a list of items that I thought of as necessary for survival, in the event of civilization collapse. *Here's a rough outline of what that list entailed.

I.Food
a.Food Production
b.Food Storage
c.Minerals and Nutrients

II.Water
a.Water Collection
b.Filtration

III.Shelter
a.Building Materials
b.Construction Methods

IV.Clothing
a.Cotton Production
b.Leather Production
c.Weaving Textiles
d.Producing Clothes
e.Producing Shoes
f.Other Items

V.Health Care
a.Medical Care
b.Dental Care
c.Vision Care
d.Pregnancy

VI.Fuels & Energy
a.Producing Electricity
b.Producing Hydrogen
c.Fuels for Cooking
d.Charcoal
e.Making Fire

VII.Transportation

VIII.Tools
a.Hand Tools
b.Gardening Tools
c.Making Tools

IX.Defense
a.Weapons
b.Tactics
c.Primitive Weapon Production

X.Various Items
a.Metal Working
b.Pottery
c.Soap
d.Lumber Production
e.Bricks and Mortar

XI.Heating and Cooling
a.Heating in Winter
b.Cooling in Summer

From that point, I began filling in the chapters with what I knew about each subject. *For those items that I didn't know much about, I began conducting research.

[kawalekm]

Hello Alma
I've read different scenario's as to what life would be like after oil runs out. The first is the winding down scenario, where things just slowly come to a halt because of rising energy prices. In one future world the only remaining power came for hydroelectric and atomic plants. People scraped by with about 1/10 as much electricity as today. Electric heat and air conditioning didn't exist. The only electric appliance left in the house was the television. People were willing to give up just about everything else, but they really needed television. In this kind of scenario, they had order but grinding poverty. In that life, you can expect drugs like insulin would continue to be produced, but who could afford them on a third world income.

The second scenario is more fiction ready. That is when oil starts running out and people panic, killing for a tank of gas or selling their children to buy winter heat. If society breakes down you can expect just about any atrocity to be commited for the sake of optaining fuel. Here you are not going to get any insulin!

For the first scenario, you're best bet is tb be able to produce what you need yourself. Producers would fare the best in a stablily poor society. You can produce food, canning, firewood, clothing, brewing, ect. For the second, you'd better have lots of guns, ammo, and a defendable location. In reallity, I'm preparing for both scenarios. I'm learning to do things myself, and I also have lots of guns. Maybe my bases are covered.
Michael

[lostinthewoods]

I'm not so much worried about oil running out perse, more how the cost of oil will effect the general cost of everything. "third world income"

lost

[wy0mn]

Our future... as I see it; and I AM a gloom & doom sorta guy. :)

Fuel rationing, as during WWII.
Increase driving license age to 18-21, with proof of HS education AND/OR full time employment. Folks on unemployment should have probationary privileges primarily to look for work.
Finally, federalized oil wells & refineries (confiscation aka public domain). This will seal the deal of government being petrocentric!

Plan for the worst & settle for less.

[TNDadx4]

The way I see it. medicine would be the toughest to obtain aside from natural remedies and store bought medicine expires.

The other items, food, shelter, water, etc. I fell that I can plan for.

[kawalekm]

Lost makes a good observation about what we can see happening right now. *Rising cost of fuel translates into rising costs of products. *This is what causes stagflation, where prices continue to rise even if demand drops. *You can measure the rise, whether it be the cost of a gallon of milk, or a manufactured good like a reloading die. *The side effect of rising prices is that people have less disposable income after gas purchases, so they can afford even fewer manufactured goods than before. *That means laying off workers producing goods that can't be sold. *This is why the recession is starting now. *The truth is, I don't think any stimulus package is going to "jump start" the economy if the fundemental cause of the recession (price of oil) is not addressed.

I agree that gas might have to be rationed. *Americans are just too stupid, greedy, and selfish to think of things like conservation. *Most will be angry that they aren't allowed to top off their 10mpg SUV to drive to the beach.

Health care; I don't know. *I think we can expect 19th century quality healthcare guided by 20th-21st century medical knowledge. *Forget about buying Viagra. *Things like antibiotics and insulin will still be produced, but they'll be expensive. *Doctors may come to accept chickens or fresh produce for payment of service.

I concur with what TND says. *I fully expect that to be comfortable I'll have to produce my own food, harvest my own fuel. *Anyone that doesn't have a woodstove will face very unpleasant winters. *I expect to see a resurgence of Tuberculosis, Pneumonia, and other diseases related to malnutrition and lack of heat. *I just purchased a second woodstove for cooking. *I am very gratefull for getting it.
Michael

[wy0mn]

Michael-
Add rickets & scurvy to the recipe & we'll just about be back in the Dark Ages. Citrus prices are on the rise too, plant some rose bushes.
Just imagine, squash (one healthy plant & your buried alive) will be back in vogue!
I commute 120 miles round trip daily. When I'm forced to drive my truck, instead of my wifes miserly car, the first 2 1/2 work hours go into the tank! Thats at $2.70gal @$9.49 per hour. Approximately 15mpg average from a 17yr old truck.
Is it any wonder that people aren't buying/boosting the economy? Fuel is killing the working poor.
What brand of stove did you buy?
Lex

[kawalekm]

Hi Lex
I trying now. I'm experimenting with cold hardy citrus that might survive snow. I sprouted some calimodin seeds, and have a Meyer Lemon. I am trying so hard to find a mail order Flying Dragon citrus. It's supposed to survive 0F. Onions are a good alternative source of vitamin C. For D, there's liver, and I'll check what else has D. If I build a big enough greenhouse, I might have a tangerine in it. Mostly, the greenhouse will be for winter vegetables.

The stove is a Monarch, made by the Mallable Steel Company. The seller told me it's dated 1930. He put in effort to restore it, and still sold it to me for that wonderful price. It makes me feel more secure that if I can shoot my own turkey, I can roast it in my own oven.
Michael

[wy0mn]

I was unaware that onions had vitamin C! Thats one thing I can grow, and the rose hips, citrus here would be an exercise in futility.
Heck, I'm having fun just locating trees for zone 3-4. Most are evergreens, which I do like, but theres a new conifer disease creeping northward from Colorado. I forget what my wife called it, but its supposedly pretty bad. I guess we'll see softwood prices higher than transport cost can justify soon. Paper products, cardboard packages, toilet tissue... its a vicious circle.
I never really set any resolutions for '08, but completing my remote cabin is at the top of the list, followed closely by better employment & cheaper transportation.
Got just enough $$$ to finish the cabin, thats why the question about the stove.
Lex

[Deberosa]

Seaberries are rich in vitamin C and I think Kiwi is too?

[lostinthewoods]

Just imagine, squash (one healthy plant & your buried alive) will be back in vogue!


You mean to tell me that they've gone out of style? ???

Guess I didn't get the memo. ;)

lol

lost

[alma]

White willow pine ( i think that's the name) has more vitamin c than 5 lemons.
Will try to copy and paste article tomorrow whan i get to use sues computer again.
Indians gave info to settlers to combat colera, i think.
It has 5 long needles clumped together, and is made into a tea.
For vitamin d, get out in sun or 15 minutes with 40% exposure for 1000 i.u.s of vitamin d.
love, alma

[wy0mn]

Hey Lost, I like squash too, but its never on a restaurants menu. I like fried squash patties, but I gotta admit the buttered spaghetti squash is a real treat. Mom had a recipe for 'candied' squash at one time...
Sunlight is a wonderful thing Alma, especially for S.A.D.
I've been reading about that this year, sounds like a wussy thing, but I may have had a bit of it earlier this winter.
Conifers are on the die-out just south of us, & headed this way. Spoke to wife last night, (gone to Casper this week for a class), it is some kind of widespread bark beetle infestation. There are some scenic views of distant mtn/valleys that look like burnoff damage, until you get close enough to tell the difference.
Gotta get ready for work, roads are OPEN today. Can't afford many more three day work weeks.
Never thought I'd get truly sick of the web...

[Danielle]

Cabbage is good for vitamin C and lots of other things too.
It's been awhile since I was into juicing wheat grass, but I'm pretty sure that was a good source of vitamin C also. I'll have to check my books again.
I don't think it's hard to get enough vitamin C as long as one eats something fresh every day.

[lostinthewoods]

;D MMMMMMM, spaghetti squash............

Not to high jack alma, sorry. We had a bumper crop of spaghetti squash 2 years ago (literally had them coming out of our ears). Tilled the garden the following year and had some volunteers that had cross polinated with I think pumkin and YUK! Back to fresh seed this year, and we'll take the hoe to any volunteers that come up.

lost

[WileyCoyote]

Four things:
1)Become completely and healthily food-self-sufficient;
2) Take an EMT course to learn the basics, and then have not only emergency supplies on hand, but learn about herbal medications that you can grow or barter for locally;
3) learn to ride a bike, take care of a horse, or otherwise do without fueled transportation. Invest in a backpack that you can wear comfortably or saddlebags in case you have to bug out - and be prepared as well to hole up in case of a pandemic (which happens when there is a shortage of food, hygiene, and medicine)
4) keep your guns clean, accessible, and loaded, because whatever you have, those who do not have will try to take from you.

[wy0mn]

Good post Wiley-
We have a plethora of First Aid, medical & herbal health books, but few supplies along those lines yet.
Guns, ammo, blackpowder, archery gear, slingshots & even a Cold Steel blowgun! I've taken game with them all.
One thing that I almost always see overlooked is a few good steel traps in various sizes. Maybe a conibear body trap or three, and some snare wire with locks. Depending on the location, a fish trap or two might be in order. Food & fur/leather/sinew harvested as you sleep, or work on other things, without having to actively hunt and announce your presence.
I love my location, 28mi off pavement, 2mi off grid, and very sparcely populated on a long deadend road with one bridge that could be 'blown'.
I don't think I could possibly be in a better setup.

[lostinthewoods]

I still don't see the world falling into ciaos due to peak oil. I can see ordinary everyday things growing too expensive for a working schlup like myself to afford. I see "surviving peak oil" as learning how to get the biggest bang for your buck now while it will go further. Stock up on some of the expensive items now that you may be putting off because of the expense.

As for the medicines and such. Most all of the antibiotics that I've ever been prescribed usually don't "expire" for 1 year. With that in mind I think I would try to stock up with a one year supply of most meds. I realize that things like insulin won't last that long but you all can understand where I'm going.

Invest in things that will maintain their value even during a "rough" economic time.

lost

[WileyCoyote]

Yup, Lostinthewoods, they "say" those drugs expire but they don't, as long as you keep them tightly closed and in a cool dark dehumidified place. On EMS, we used to give our "expired" drugs and IV fluids to local animal hospitals (the only ones who could 'legally' use them) and they were still good two years later. Don't believe everything you read.

I'd like to agree with you that the world won't fall apart; but I simply can't. There will be a tipping point, when those who feel that they are entitled to live 'as good as' everyone else come to see that they cannot do so without effort, and then they will attack and gang together and molest and steal and kill, taking whatever they want. I have seen these soulless people and listened to them yammer for too long. I know what they are capable of - the sort of feral mindlessness that has no conscience, no regrets, and no constraints. When they take to the streets, they will be unstoppable; and when the government tries to stop them, in its heavy-handed and reactionary ways, any innocents in the way will be harmed as well.

[Southern_Gent]

I still don't see the world falling into ciaos due to peak oil. *I can see ordinary everyday things growing too expensive for a working schlup like myself to afford. *I see "surviving peak oil" as learning how to get the biggest bang for your buck now while it will go further. *Stock up on some of the expensive items now that you may be putting off because of the expense. *


You're not counting the human factor. As commodities become ever more expensive, those who can no longer afford the bare necessities of life will become desperate. Government will try to do what it can to ease that burden, but in a peak-oil world, resources will be limited. As frustration and desperation reach new levels, law and order will break down and the instinct for survival will take over.

[wy0mn]

We're no different from the rest of the world. Humans are expert & being inhuman to one another.
Listen/read the news from Kenya and elsewhere, now change the name to Hometown, U.S.A.
We have the oldest democracy, at least in name, of the entire free world. We're overdue for a reality check.

One thing I think we all can agree on, dinosaurs are extinct. There are no massive herds being buried to become future oil. Two, oil isn't a virus, bacteria, or any other thing that can replicate or reproduce. Ergo oil is finite, it WILL come to an end.
Biodiesel is cost prohibitive and can only replace a tiny percentage of our consumption, wind & solar is still expensive, thus shunned by the great unwashed masses.

My tax return will purchase a wood stove. Wife computed our return and I can buy a much better stove than I had originally intended. :)

[homesteadingnky]

I drink pine needle tea for a quick vitamin C boost. Just throw a hand full of pine needles in a bowl or pot and pour boiling water over them. I use the white pine in my backyard. Let them steep for several hours and strain. I wasn't sure about trying it at first but it really isn't bad at all. I had a little honey to sweeten it. Alma was right on when she said it had more vitamin C than 5 lemons.

Homesteading Dad n KY

[lostinthewoods]

Maybe, I'm an optimist. I still can't see "America" falling apart like that. Yes, I agree whole heartedly that it can and may very well happen as we're discussing. I guess I hold out the hope that maybe if America gets a little taste of how bad it really can be that maybe we (citizens and the GOVERNMENT) will wise up and take some REAL steps to correct the problem.

The hardest part of the whole process is removing the blinders and seeing the problem for what it is. Not just continuing to dance around this enormous white elephant in the room. It'll take someone with the intestinal fortitude to do it and unfortunately I don't see them on the horizon, so yes I do think things will get worse before they get better. I guess I just hope it doesn't get to the point where I have to defend my home or food from roaming bands of village idiots who think they're "entitled" to.

Here's to hoping. :-/

lost

great thread alma!

[wy0mn]

Secession- Those states with natural resources may someday choke the life from those that offer little more than bureaucracy.
Would we miss D.C. N.J. or R.I? What do they contribute to the common good? What is the primary produce of Connecticut anyway?
The USSR was too large and unmanageable, too diverse. So are we.
The former nation of Czechoslovakia is now two republics.
Is it too far fetched to see a line drawn between the haves and the have nots?

[Southern_Gent]

Secession- Those states with natural resources may someday choke the life from those that offer little more than bureaucracy.
Would we miss D.C. N.J. or R.I? What do they contribute to the common good? What is the primary produce of Connecticut anyway?
The USSR was too large and unmanageable, too diverse. So are we.
The former nation of Czechoslovakia is now two republics.
Is it too far fetched to see a line drawn between the haves and the have nots?


Perhaps it's not too far fetched, but the last time an attempt at such was made in this country, it resulted in a very bloody war.

[kawalekm]

Well, since I originally came from New Jersey, I have to object to wyOmn's statement. *Actually, if things get that bad, the concept of states and state's rights might no longer apply. *This reminds me of Joel Garreau's book "The Nine Nations of North America". *In this book Joel talked about the natural relationships between people with similar interests and goals. *For example, the thinking and beliefs of wheat farmers in Alberta had more in common with farmers in North Dakota, than they did with people in Ottowa, and people in Ottowa had more in common with people in Washingtion DC than they did with Quebec! *If the United States did break up, it's more likely to break up along the boundries outlined in his book, rather than individual states.

This idea gets back to an earlier post I made about local control. *If you assume there's going to be a power vacumn with a collape of central government, who or what will take it's place? *Will it be local gang members, neo nazis, or an obsure religious cult? *Different regions of the country could experience each one of these "solutions".

That of course is what is going to happen after the dust has settled. *Before that point however there will be those deperate individuals that will take the opportunity to steal the food out of your children's mouths and rape your wife if they have the extra time. *I don't think offering them a cup of pine needle tea is going to make any difference!
Michael

[wy0mn]

Michael- I apologize if you were truly offended, I should have left a 'fill in the blank' situation. But I was only half kidding, why should TX, WY, or AK care if NJ gets their oil? Especially when we reach the real crunch. By the same merits, we won't be getting tobacco or seafood up here. That book sounds like a keeper, I will be looking it up. Thanks for the info.
Yeah Gent, "the right of the people to alter or abolish it" was put to the test, and lost. But think about it, our Founding Fathers also didn't expect us to be 'renting' our property annually from the gov't; which by the way, they can take back 'imminent domain' even if your taxes are paid up!
Last year I wanted to claim Uncle Sam as a dependent, a very senile one at that!

[lostinthewoods]

OH CRAP! Ohio has less to offer than NJ! ;)

I think we'd better buy a Uhaul and some gas cans!

lost

[wy0mn]

Theres a bush I tried in Florida, Yaupon, its a member of the holly family and supposedly one of the few native plants that contains caffeine. Makes a fair tea, although the scientific name is disgusting. I wonder if it could survive zone 3-4?
And chicory? I've made decaf-coffee subs from chicory & acorns, unfortunately I've not seen either within hundreds of miles of here.
Another project for this year is an icebox!
Just rambling, I'm sleep depraved...uh, deprived...

[jott]

<<why should TX, WY, or AK care if NJ gets their oil?


Maybe but NJ has a lot of oil refineries not many of them in WY or AK. I know there are many in TX and the ones in NJ mostly work on oil from other countries. But I know lots of other useful chemicals get made in NJ and shipped all around the world. Some people on this list would be just fine and could not care less about anything off their land.

The point is no region of this country has the resources to support the current population, even with greatly reduced standers of living, without the help of other regions. Long term I think it is very foolish to believe that you can hold up in your fort and maintain a life style like you have today as the rest of the world falls apart.

If something dose happen the choice will be get it all going again, or we all live in the dark ages. It mite be very messy for a little but I think most people will learn how to deal with it quickly.

[Southern_Gent]

Actually, the Confederate Army used chicory mixed with some burnt grain (the name escapes me at the moment), as a substitute for coffee during the Civil War. It was a poor substitute, by their own words, but still better than nothing.

[kawalekm]

The truth is that probubly the powder you're stuffing into your reloads comes from New Jersey, that replacement part you need for your 3-point hitch comes from Ohio, and some of the oil you need to run anything at all comes from Texas. *There's no way that any region of the country can go on without the others in any way that resembles a 20th century standard of living. *We could all be equally screwed when the oil finally runs out.

I can imagine maybe 90% of the population of this country dieing off from a combination of hunger, disease, riots, and maybe open warfare. *But, after the dust settles, the survivors could peice together a society with a 19th century standard of living. *We'll still have a little electricity, land for farming, and maybe enough fossil fuel to at least run the trains and farm tractors. *There will be transportation, and trade, even if it has to be pulled on the tracks by wood-fired steam engines.

We'll still have television. *We'll watch when we decide we can spare the carefully rationed electricity. *I'm sure they'll still air the program "Lifestyles of the rich and famous". *They'll profile a person who actually owns and drives a car! *Our great grandchildren will shake their heads in misbelief if we try to tell them we all drove cars when we were their age.

What is our job? *We need to be the one who make it through the first five years of "after oil". *Save valuable tools, experience, and books, lot of books. *Things to tell us how to all the things we now have to do, and also to give us the reasons to go on. *We'll be pretty dispondent after we're through burying all the brainless sheeple.
Michael

[wy0mn]

I still can't see the survival of America in its entirety, after the oil dries up. Even with reduced population and a retarded lifestyle, or because of them, I think we'd see a breakup.
I'm in a great spot for individual survival, yet a lousy one for the retention of any semblance of society & civilization, but I've never been a team player.
Push comes to shove, my family comes first.

I remember the Y2K fizzle, I wish it had been a real earth shaker. Although by the tenets, rules & laws of society; I would have become a murderer. No doubt about it.
I was a hard working, tax paying, property owner with white-trash welfare neighbors. I would have had to 'exterminate' them as a pre-emptive strike for my own protection & security.

Have ya'll thought that far ahead? If your survival & ownership of properties to sustain you & your loved ones can only be secured thru the extermination of an entire family... could you do it?

[landshark]

I don't know that I would go looking for trouble, but if I received reliable information that there was a legitimate threat to me or my family, I think it would be easy in that type of situation to do what needed to be done to eliminate that threat. *

[jott]

Everyone has to protect themselves, but if you start shooting people first it is going to be very hard to find allies. I think you would be setting yourself up for a short and very miserable life. You have to sleep sometime and there will be many waiting. If word gets out what you did the military/police that will be the only strong authority, mite think it will be worth rolling up to your parts just to show everyone they can still maintain order. So your family mite wake up to mortar shells falling on the house.

I don’t believe anyone can hold out alone fighting the world for very long, the key to survival will be making friends and sharing resources, I’m not saying give stuff away but even the guy that can’t do anything can learn a lot in a very short amount of time if he works at it.

[wy0mn]

OH, I believe in what your saying, the morality of it. I wish we lived in a better world, then folks with my mind-set would be far fewer.
But I was speaking of a inbred family of thieves and no goods. The kind of people that you cannot give the benefit of the doubt. The ones in county court weekly.
You could not leave your home to garden, cut firewood, or any of the many things you would need to do for your family. The kind of white trash that would lift anything they wanted and burn the rest. I would not doubt for a minute that they wouldn't strike first, in the dark, as my family slept.
Its like having a rattlesnake den by your kids playground, if you don't strike first you would regret it; probably as your last rational thought, watching the slaughter of your wife & kids.
Even my wife grew to detest those yokels, and shes an earthly saint. She has to be, to tolerate me.

Three "S's" as applied to destructive animals
Shoot
Shovel
& Shut up

[Southern_Gent]

I can see where you're coming from, wyOmn, indeed while reading your posts, a few of my own neighbors come to mind. Those that have caused endless hassle for me for no other reason than their own enjoyment. Indeed, people such as those are likely to strike first in the event of civilization collapse. Also, given all the bad blood, it would be difficult trying to make amends, especially when you fear a knife in your back from the likes of such.

In light of such circumstances, I guess you'd have to weigh the options and make your move.

[edward_4576]

Now things are getting interesting. When I consider things like this my mind brings up parts of stories that I have read. In some older threads I posted that TEOTWAWKI won’t have Irwin-Allen special effects but something that will be comprised of a bunch of little things that kind of sneak up on you. Peak Oil, H5N1, Politics, Terrorism or Economic collapse all seem to have the makings of “The straw that broke America’s back”.

Now I don’t think one thing will do it, it’s going to take two or three things to cause the big one. So how do you recognize it? I saw one website that had criteria for a SHTF-o-meter for H5N1. First level was human to human spread over seas. Second was wide spread H2H spread over seas. Third was first reported cases in The US and the final level was regional cases. At this point it was time to hunker down.

So what would the SHTF-o-meter for this scenario look like? The law of supply and demand determines the cost of any item unless artificially controlled (like diamonds). As pointed out earlier there is a finite supply of petroleum products available to mankind, no if ands or buts. So the increases in gas and oil prices must indicate (a. an artificially controlled market or b. reduced supply or c. both).

Next level how about politics and the economy? In the upcoming issue Dave Duffy has a great editorial. In it a term is used that I think applies very aptly to our elected officials, BOZO (my apologies to all clowns). IMHO none of the candidates running for public office appears to have the faintest idea what to do with all of our countries social and economic so that means our next “leader” will have to deal with some of the worst issues this country has seen in years, increased budget deficit, inflation, mortgage meltdown, rising unemployment and national security issues.. I believe they will be dealt with like the proverbial Ostrich with its head in the sand, out of site out of mind.

Now I read recently that a strain of H2N1 was discovered in Missouri that supported the possibility of an H5N1 scenario. http://www.flu.org.cn/en/news-13892.html Wouldn’t that be level 3 on the SHTF-o-meter? So like the guy on “American Beauty” says “This country’s going straight to hell!” It’s just a matter of time. So what to expect?

Because it’s not going to be an overnight affair people will have time to prepare. In every hurricane season we see the different levels of preparedness for the American Psyche. You got the serious ones who board up and leave because they don’t want to get stuck sitting in a traffic jam and end up sleeping in the car, they are the ones with the reservations for a nice hotel, and they have flood insurance and are probably throwing a private hurricane party when it does come through.

Secondly you got the ones that wait, ether because of a desire or hope that it’ll pass or an inability to leave sooner. They usually board up the house waiting for the last minute, are probably packing the wrong things in the cars and will be stuck in the traffic jam and end up sleeping at a road side stop. They survive the initial catastrophe but if not for recovery efforts or external factors would end up in refugee camps. These are the ones that will most likely cause issues with squatters and marauders. Remember people will do just about anything to survive.

Third and forth on the list are the ones that won’t leave and that’s because their delusional (it won’t happen to me), Stupid (lets have a party), or are of a criminal/predatory bent (lets grab some stuff after Mr. & Mrs. XYZ leave). These are the ones that will die first and be the easiest types to target. These are the ones that appear in “Worlds craziest police chases and Cops”. These are the ones that make up the candidates for the Darwin awards. A saying comes to mind “thin the herd”, I believe it will apply to these people.

On a personal level I don’t believe we will see roving bands of marauding, gun toting rioters, nor will we see Blue helmeted UN soldiers or populated FEMA refugee camps overflowing with the dregs of humanity. I see an increase in crime; this can be seen in everyday news programs, prepare for them by securing your home and preparing a network of like minded folks in your neighborhood and town.

Economically I think it will be a slow decline, loss of wages, loss of benefits and such. This will have an increase in the death rate and poverty levels across the US. People will loose their homes and we will see a new class of Americans, wanderers with no fixed abode, moving to wherever the work is and renting, this will cause an increase in folks that will place their senior citizens in “assisted living facilities”. The only way to protect yourself from this is to get out of dept and stay out of dept, keep your family values strong and keep your family near you.

If a true pandemic happens, this will cause the preceding to snowball. Because of the loss of consumers and workers, the burden of escalating dept both public and private and the issues of the discontinuity of our society what will happen is a fragmenting of our society and in the end we will see a logarithmic change until the world is completely unrecognizable and again the only way to survive is as stated before to prepare a network of like minded individuals and prepare.

Some other things that I believe could happen are a possible backlash of anger directed at perceived wrong doers. This could be directed at corporate types or politicians/lawyers that get blamed for the incompetence of leadership and the woes of the nation. Others will be groups that match certain ethno/religious profiles that some may blame for what happened. There may be an increase in violence directed at the very wealthy and famous who some may perceive as not being worthy of their wealth and fame. And finally those that are at the end of their rope and full of despair that may think their last hope is something that a normal person would consider the ravings of a mad man.


What do you think?

[homesteadingnky]

I personally think that the senerios you guys have posted are very real posibilities! I've been saying this to my wife for a while but when I read here that you guys feel the same way it makes me want to prepare even more than I already have. I'm not an alarmist and I feel pretty confident that we'd weather most imaginable storms ok but still it makes a man want to double check and shore up his supplies!

Homesteading Dad

[wy0mn]

This place is like the old South of my youth, open & friendly. And its not a ploy to get into your confidence. Here, only an out of state plate will pass a stranded motorist without at least asking their condition. We even stop for the outers; for one thing, we pretty sure we're better armed ;), and leaving someone on a wintry road here could be signing their death certificate.
I think of the old "explective" that I sold the TN farm too, after two price reductions, then I remember he got the neighbors too! lol
Here I'm the newbie, the unknown variable. I know some of my neighbors by sight and a few of those by name. Of the ones I've spoken with most are seniors to whom I have offered various help without being condescending.
I have one of the three 'reliable' phones in this small town; ones that work during outages & frequent landline failures, without the need of driving up a hill for a clear signal (external directional antenna). When I get the other antenna set up on the Ranch I'll have the only reliable phone within 18mi or there abouts.

Planning survival is an overall system of many parts.
I have known friends who stocked up MRE's, other foodstuffs, meds, all the supplies you could think of... with no guns! Weak system.
I've known burby Rambos who think guns are the end all of their personal survival equation. Weak system.
Personally I hope I'm more balanced with my small arsenal, communications, power production, & food procurement system.
Preaching to the choir I suppose, but darn this cabin fever anyway.

[WileyCoyote]

Um, Waco. Um, Ruby Ridge.
Even people who appear to be preparing for the end times, especially by collecting a lot of armament either (currently) legal or illegal, if they do it openly and with a 'shoot to kill' attitude publicized, will end up with gubberment folk trying to set them up or attacking them with a lot more firepower than one could ever dream.

My attitude is to move into a place, be as nice, neighborly, and friendly as possible (yet to always seem to be busy and working) and to never let anyone know what or how much we have. Better to appear poor and harmlessly, grinningly eccentric... and to keep the weaponry put away until it is needed. Then to bury the bodies as quickly and as quietly as possible. All farmsteads need lime, don't they? ;)

Most folk are two dimensional and like to 'pocket' others into two-dimensional molds. Once they think you are the pleasant, not-very-bright guy down the road, they will have pocketed you and will think no more about you. It's always worked for me. ;D

[Southern_Gent]

Wiley, I'm beginning to think you're well versed in Sun Tzu's logic, what with the strategies you employ.

[wy0mn]

I also recommend the 'Book of Five Rings', to accompany the 'Art of War'. Some editions are much better than others.

If it works, use it. However as a predator looking for the weak member of a herd... the "not-very-bright guy down the road", flagged as target for me. Sure I'd probably get my @$$ dusted, but it still reads as a big neon 'victim' to me. Unless your using yourself as bait, always a tricky situation, to trap scumbags.

Lex

[WileyCoyote]

I would agree with you, wyomn, if we were talking about a town or city where swarms of predators will be prevalent... but not in the country, where most folks have their own eccentricities and pretty much, even when neighborly, have too much on their own plates to worry about if the other guy might have a bit more.

My city persona (where I live now) is entirely different. Here I'm known as the lady who will shoot you if you come on her property, who when jumped, jumps back with both feet. Doing that in a country setting will draw unwanted attention, even fear and prejudice, to you. I want to have my freedom of movement as long as possible, to be able to get done what I need to do - and to do that in the country, I have to have the biiiiiig smile on my face; the S&!$-eatin grin of friendly and content poverty, and the cheerful wave of the hand. I may need the locals - or we may need each other! - to keep out the 'outsiders' when they come. The locals will need to see me as poor, open-hearted, cheerful, and non-threatening. I don't want to have my neighbors pointing at me suspiciously when the Feds come to the area, looking for 'likely suspects'.

[wy0mn]

Touche!

[WileyCoyote]

Not at all, my friend. I just didn't explain it well enough the first time. My bad.

[Cowgirl]

I don't know how it will play out, except that as energy costs rise, so too will the cost of everything else, and all but necessities will have to go by the wayside. Self-sufficiency will be of paramount importance.

I've not planned on insulin, as we aren't diabetic. But I study medicinal herbs, and I am planting many on our homestead, to deal with a wide variety of potential ailments.

[alma]

How about a rundown on some of those medical herbs?
I had a few herbs in my yard last year, but have lots of info on floppy disks from y2k.
I check them out every once in awhile to learn all i can, but haven't got into practicing much,
Sure hope to do even better this year. Have lemon balm, purple cone flower, mint, peppiment,etc. Had some comrey. Not sure about any of them coming up this year.
altnature.com has a lot of info and pics, too.
Too old. Have a hard time walking, etc. or sure would throw myself into this stuff. Wish i had known about these things years ago.
I've heard stevia is good for diabetics, and some cinnamon helps to control some of the peaks.
Any info about stuff for diabetes will be appreciated. Sue has had it for years.
I try to get all the vitamins i can from nature directly as well as supplements.
White pine needles has more vitamin c than 5 lemons.
I am trying to learn all i can about the foods and meds in my back yard.
15 minutes in sun gets me 1000 I Us o vitamin D. 2 brazil nuts gives the required amount of selenium, etc.
Any such info about nutrition or vitamins and minerals will be appreciated.
I finally got tumeric in capsules today. love, alma

[army6972]

As mentioned earlier, most meds do last beyond thier experation date, they just become weaker as time goes by. BUT antibiotics will breakdown and change as time goes on and will kill you. I've seen this in an ER were a man took an antibiotic 6 months beyond the experation date and his throat was closing, could hardly breath and his face was deformed like he had been stung by bee's. Do not take antibiocs after the experation date.