National Inflation Association's newest video

[CapeCMom]

Another excellent video from the crew over at NIA. For those on dial up, it is a refresher course on what could happen to store shelves in we have a currency crisis/inflation scenario in this country. In the video, there is a lengthy discussion over the nastiness that happened in Boston over the water main break in May of this year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIVVL43qPXY&feature=player_embedded

[MissouriFree]

Another excellent video from the crew over at NIA. For those on dial up, it is a refresher course on what could happen to store shelves in we have a currency crisis/inflation scenario in this country. In the video, there is a lengthy discussion over the nastiness that happened in Boston over the water main break in May of this year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIVVL43qPXY&feature=player_embedded

CCM You know me. I am of the believe that we will see very high inflation ( if not hyper).

But this video is way off base if it trys to equate what happened to hyperinflation.In fact the opposite will probably be true. there would be plenty of water on the shelf as the price will be so high that people just can not afford it.

1. In the case of the boston incident the price of water stayed the same. the shelfs emptied because of supply and demand issues - No supply from the regular source (the pipe).

2. But in the case of hyper ( high) inflation that is not what happens. IN high inflation times the price of water on the shelves skyrockets, but the shelfs still have water - in fact probably over supply as people just don't have enough money to buy the water due to inflated cost. In that case they would turn to other means , boiling etc.


JMHO.

mo

[pcrowder]

The video certainly gives a person alot to think about as far as prepping. Water is not as much of an issue for us because we have a very deep well, but the "supply chain" will greatly impact us because we are so rural.

[CapeCMom]

I know what you're saying Mo, but I think the intent was to show the animal side of people when they get desperate. Kind of like-well if they did this over something so small, what is it going to be like if it was a huge event? Also I think what they were trying to convey with the empty shelves is what happened in Zimbabwe. The Mugabe government came in and put price controls on everything because people could not afford the high prices. What happened after that was that they store shelves became bare because people raided the stores while they could.

I found the part of people fighting over water and them collecting water from the National Guard the most important part of this movie-cause like they said, what's gonna happen if something big goes down and there is no National Guard to give you water (or food for that matter)?

[dearg]

I watched the way people turned on others after Katrina. The small town closet to us was stripped of groceries and water in 2 days. There was virtually no way to get shipments due to highway congestion. It was ugly!!!

[MissouriFree]

You are right in that aspect. I am trying to find time to really digest the orlov 5 steps of collapse that Patience posted. It has some good points just the same as this. But in all of these anaylsis' the negative side of the people is always emphasised.

Myabe I am naive but I keep thinking that all of these type visions of the collapse and hyperinflations are skipping the spirit of the American people.

In those other countries - Russia and Zimbabwe - the people have never lived in a society with the have freedoms and liberties we have. Will there be " animals" that grab everything in site and help not one of there fellow Americans . Sure there will but they will be a minority in my mind. I still wager that in an event like we are talking about Americans will pull together and survive- like we always have.

That input to the "Collapse" is missing in all the theories that I see.

Just my two cents.

[CapeCMom]

I don't know if it will be a total collapse either but I do think that most Americans are in for a drastic change in their standard of living. Some people will either be living off of government handouts or they will steal. 3 million people are loosing their unemployment benefits right now-what percentage of those people will apply for assistance-which we don't have the money for, and which ones will turn to crime? I guess time will tell, but I can't see much getting better anytime soon.

[patience]

I wonder if the different behaviors we will see aren't linked to age. I saw a movie long ago called, "You are What you Were When..." (when you were 10 years old). They pointed out that people form their ideas of what is "normal", and acquire most of their values by the time they are about age 10. Those ideas can change later, but require what he called a "Significan Emotional Event" to change them--some trauma, like going to war, serious injury, or going bankrupt. Not a perfect thesis, to be sure, but a useful guide to behavior.

They gave the example of various people being asked to work overtime. An old guy who lived through the Depression, stood right up and said, "Sure, ust tell me what to do." A young guy was used to having his own way said, "Nah, I think I'll go fishing tonight." But he'd never seen hard times in his life.

To some degree, I think this is an indicator of how people will react to any crisis. What people have come to expect as "normal", whatever their age, is the main thing, though. We have a lot of spoiled people today who could be a problem. I'm thinking that if your place is burglarized, it is more likely to be a young person who is broke, than a guy 60 years old who is broke. The older person is more likely to have values that prevent him from doing it, and also have more ideas about how to cope.

Whatever a person's age or location or other attributes, I think their socialization is what counts. That is hard to figure out until you interrract with them, though. I do expect to see a lot of cooperation in many places, some unexpected.

[cinok]

If history is anything to learn from those that usually riot in the the past seem to grab the big screen TVs and video games. I am sure they will walk right past the items needed in a disaster and be the first in line saying the government didn't help us :)

[momma_to_seven_chi]

I know what you're saying Mo, but I think the intent was to show the animal side of people when they get desperate. Kind of like-well if they did this over something so small, what is it going to be like if it was a huge event?

It is really amazing to me that people panicked that much over a boil order. I know you said boil orders were not common in that area, but still...... WOW!

FWIW I have heard many ministers talking about empty shelves in the future too. I pray there is actually a time of deflation before hyperinflation in prices sets in, to allow people to stock up for the coming downsizing of the monetary supply. They have put so much in, you know they are going to have to take some back out in the future.

[patience]

Momma said: " I pray there is actually a time of deflation before hyperinflation in prices sets in, to allow people to stock up...."

It takes some time to even figure out what you need, and even more time to go fetch it and figure out how to pay for it. That is why I advocate people start stocking up ASAP. Truly, we can't guess exactly how things will go, so assumiing that trouble is starting now is just being conservative. In fact, it could be later than we think.

Stocking up on things we will use anyway, is just cheap insurance.

I don't know if the NIA is on track for timing, or not, but I do think they will be right eventually, and I think it will happen very fast when it does.