Get ready for a market rally but beware

[Unemployed_trader]

Thursday is the day the government may rule on the mark to market requirement for financial and banks. If they suspend or temporary suspend this requirement the market will have a violent upside rally and force all those on short positions to buy back their positions. Sadly this is the only way they can push up the market without any earnings. If this rally continues the best strategy is to set a trailing stop and continue to move it up with the market with a gap so you don't get stopped out too soon. Like all false rally it will fail, so don't believe what the talking heads are saying on cnbc or other news. Remember they are beholden to their masters, the people who pay the ads on their shows.
We are going below 6000 dow so don't be surprised and if the president continues to parade on tv with rope handle solutions talking with out any substance we will see a lower market. My opinion is that we will see 4000 sooner than expected because the country is run by high school children who don't understand or appreciate what earning and hard work is about.

[Unemployed_trader]

Today March 10 the rally has begun. All the talking heads are pumping up the banks with out explaining why you should buy. The 379.44 point rally is mostly from people who have short position and are buying back their position to either take their profits or limit their loss. Cramer on CNBC is saying to buy Bank of America because he says so. This is a suicide attempt on trading stocks and most people who do this have no clue why the are doing this. The banks and financials are insolvent and will soon or later reveal this. You will then see a massive panic sell of these stocks and Bank of America will go from presently $4.79/share to less than $1/share. If you decide to buy any of these stocks set a stop limit with a gap of $.25 or more. Anyone who trades stocks should always place a stop limit even in a bull market. Tomorrow may be another market rally and even the next day but it will fail. Most stocks are reporting no earnings and the stock price will reflect this so don't get too excited when you see the DOW rally up.

[Unemployed_trader]

March 11 today the market has gaped up during opening and all the gains has pulled back at closing. The plunger team (Geitner, Brennake, Head of Federal Reserve Chicago) are brewing up a catalysis to further push up this false rally. I suspect it ran out of momentum and we will see a pullback but anything can happen with these crooks so be careful.

[cmdan]

Great info trader, keep it coming!

[Michael32170]

You sure do have unusual predictive capabilities.

[Unemployed_trader]

If anybody listened to that fool Cramer and has bought Bank of America(BAC) it is time to sell or place a stop limit to secure your peak profits. The stock is only rallying on the shorts buying back their positions and you are seeing a temp high so don't get too excited on the upward movement.

[Unemployed_trader]

Michael32170 there is no unusual predictive capabilities only time spent studying the market will give you some idea and the stock market is about odds and using data to your advantage.

[Unemployed_trader]

The Messiah (Obama) has talked a good talk but if you read between the lines he is proposing to increase credit.(isn't this the main reason why we are in this depression) This may sound good but if you ran a business you need the government to cut back taxes not extend credit. The only way to fix this problem is to cut taxes on everyone and not just a specific group and then let all failing business fall to the side so someone can buy it and do a better job.

The stock market will continue to fall!

[hvfpaints]

How long do you think the ralley will last? Finally got into the black today so rolled everything into our 401k stable value fund. May have been premature but I just don't trust Wall Street anymore.

[Anon001]

your 401K isn't invested in Wall Street?

[Unemployed_trader]

No really knows when this rally will end but we can only judge based on the volume and moving averages and use our educated guess. *My guess is this rally is running out of momentum and will stop suddenly because it reached an area of resistance, the institutions are not buying. By the way get out of those road kill mutual funds and if you can buy ETF(extended trade funds). If the market goes south you can't sell mutual funds at a drop of a dime(you can with an ETF) and you have to wait at the closing of the day. Some mutual funds may take several days and which ever day is less is the one they sell back to you. ::) This is not only from my experience but is how these crooks make money. If the market starts to pull back you can't tell your fund manager to short or even set a stop to limit your losses. The best manager to your investment is yourself and not a stranger who is only looking for commissions. We are lied to that it is too complicated to learn how to invest. When it is your money you become more motivated to make sure it is taken care of.
Stocks were never designed to be bought and held for a long time. You should always have a stop set so if it goes down it takes the emotion out and does it.
Hvfpaints you should be ready to sell or at least if you can set a stop. Put your money into a money market so it will buy you time to find out where you should put your money.(try not to pull your money out of the 401k or else you will have to pay taxes and penality)
Almost all 401k is invested in wall street anyone can find out by checking in the internet.(find out which company by looking at your statements)

[Unemployed_trader]

Friday the market is slowing down and we will see a W formation. There will be a possible pull back next week and if it doesn't go lower than March 9 lows (6440) a violent rally will occur pushing the stock market up 1000 points. This is the point that all stock holders should be dumping their stocks and any one who is stuck in the market should consider this an escape point to secure your remaining principal.
Now the strategy should be to short and if you start to make money move your trailing stop daily to further secure more of your gains just make sure you don't place your stops too close or else you will we stopped out.

[hvfpaints]

Yup! Good advise. Our Stable Value fund is mostly a fund of insurance companies. Doesn't gain much. Doesn't lose much. They also offer a Treasury Fund, but I'm leary of Treasuries since the Fed seems determined to sink the dollar. Every other fund has been pretty eratic with the market fluctuations. I've been bouncing into my company stock when I think we have hit a low, riding it up a bit, then selling and retreating back to the stable value until the next low comes along. Hasn't been gangbusters but have made a few hundred here and a few hundred there. Currently in the black, but I'm worried about the stability of the insurance companies. Everything I'm reading says they are the next shoe to drop so to speak. I've heard this rally referred to as a "Bear Trap" ralley. Sounds like we're still trying to find a bottom.

[Unemployed_trader]

I never hold stocks funds for too long, it's too unstable in this bear market. Last week I was anticipating on the banks to rally because the stock market can't rally without the financial. Bank of America had relative strength at the time but B of A is in alot of trouble and this doesn't mean they are good long term stock to buy. I bought 16,400 shares at 3.05 close to their all time low and set a stop at $3.01.( I was willing to lose $670) It never stopped me out and started to take off. I moved my stop limit up to within $.25 of closing day each day. I finally got stopped out at $5.40 and made a profit of $2.35 per share. The greedy fool on the other hand will not put a stop and think this rally will go on forever only to see this stock peak at $6.45 and suddenly pull back to $5.76 at closing. But here is the funniest part of all, this fool would be so greedy and continue to hold thinking he will makeup for missing the $6.45 peak and within a week see his profits slip away and also his principal. Does this sounding familiar to anyone? The lesson learned is to take your profits and don't look back. Always use a stop limit because you can't out run the market and no matter how tuff you think you are when the time comes to sell or cut your losses you will hesitate.

[Unemployed_trader]

Monday March 16 the market opened up and did a head fake rally. Everyone got too excited and thought a rally is starting. As I posted a few days ago the market is going to pull back several hundred points (I think 500-). Never chase stocks like today or else you will pay and get an ulcer. Wait for the pull back if you didn't get a short position. At 6440 Dow will be the test area to see if they can rally this market if not stay on your short position with a stop. Assuming that a rally happens at this point you will see 1000 point rally to 7500+ DOW. This is when you want to start selling or set a stop positions to sell back to suckers who are willing to buy over sold stocks.
Remember the stock market is about taking money from one hand to the other. There is no printing press running making money by fiat so don't believe the fund managers or talking heads on tv telling you to buy and hold. They are either making money on commissions or getting advertising dollars to pump up a stock.

[gump]

Monday March 16 the market opened up and did a head fake rally. Everyone got too excited and thought a rally is starting. As I posted a few days ago the market is going to pull back several hundred points (I think 500-). Never chase stocks like today or else you will pay and get an ulcer. Wait for the pull back if you didn't get a short position. At 6440 Dow will be the test area to see if they can rally this market if not stay on your short position with a stop. Assuming that a rally happens at this point you will see 1000 point rally to 7500+ DOW. This is when you want to start selling or set a stop positions to sell back to suckers who are willing to buy over sold stocks.
Remember the stock market is about taking money from one hand to the other. There is no printing press running making money by fiat so don't believe the fund managers or talking heads on tv telling you to buy and hold. They are either making money on commissions or getting advertising dollars to pump up a stock.

To each his own. Evidence is very much against your style.

[Unemployed_trader]

I don't understand what you are talking about "Evidence is very much against your style" I am not promoting a specific stock or putting down any sectors. All I am stating is that the market is constantly changing from up rallys to stronger pull backs. You have to change directions constantly to make any money in this market and if you can't adjust, you have limited yourself. If you bought long and then refused to short at the peak of a rally then your only choice is to sell or hold. Holding will in most cases cause you to become stuck in the market and waste time. Who ever told you that the stock market is designed for buy and hold strategies must be related to Bernie Madoff.
Madoff downfall was when he couldn't get any new buyers to buy his mutual funds. The stock market is about putting money into one hand then giving to the other. All fund managers work on this principal except Madoff gave too much too soon which dried up his money supply sooner.

[JBinKC]

Definitely the catalyst for this rally which started last week has been over probable amendments to mark to market accounting. We'll see how long the rally will persist . My guess is when the Q1 earnings season starts to take hold it will temper it. I really have my doubts we won't have a retest of the averages because the underlying fact remains real estate prices continues to deflate and there is still a big inventory of homes that still are under these very favorable teaser rate conditions that are being carried at negative equity.


Unfortunately, I have to agree with trader. The market has turned into a suckers game mainly because it has become way too easy to short stock and any rules in place are still ignored and not enforced.

[Unemployed_trader]

Tuseday 17 the plunger team is able to rally this market with a catalysis. The reporting of inflation is manipulated so the government doesn't have to readjust pensions. By reporting less inflation it gives them a catalysis to rally the market and at the same time sec. Geitner is buying bank and financial stock with the tarp money(this is how government buys banks covertly). You can tell by checking stock ticker XLF which is the financial and banking sector. If you scope it out you will notice XLF is moving while the rest of the market is standing still. This is how the crook Paulson worked this market last fall until now and Geitner is now doing the same. Look at the volume of the market compared to the 3 month average and you will also notice 1/20 volume which is why they can manipulate this market. Those on short position don't worry because this false rally will collapse and the market pumpers will have to eat their words.
Also the 178.73 point rally is from shorts buying back their positions and not new buyers buying stocks(the exception is the plunger team). Shorts are not bad for a market it only reflects the condition we are in. With out the shorts this rally couldn't of happen because no one is stupid to buy when all the indicators are negative. Shorts are a natural balance and without them the market would crash sooner and harder.

[gump]

I don't understand what you are talking about "Evidence is very much against your style" *I am not promoting a specific stock or putting down any sectors. All I am stating is that the market is constantly changing from up rallys to stronger pull backs. You have to change directions constantly to make any money in this market and if you can't adjust, you have limited yourself. If you bought long and then refused to short at the peak of a rally then your only choice is to sell or hold. Holding will in most cases cause you to become stuck in the market and waste time. Who ever told you that the stock market is designed for buy and hold strategies must be related to Bernie Madoff. Madoff downfall was when he couldn't get any new buyers to buy his mutual funds. The stock market is about putting money into one hand then giving to the other. All fund managers work on this principal except Madoff gave too much too soon which dried up his money supply sooner.

Haha, I disagree.

[Unemployed_trader]

Gump I don't want to insult you but you are showing ignorance about what's happening in this market. If you're trading actively you should know what I am talking about when I give key points where this market is going. Do you even know why or how todays 178.73 rally occurred? I hope you didn't go on a spending spree today because you will be in a lot of trouble within days. I am not looking for a fight but constructive disagreement. At the end of the day we are all going to pay for the action of these crooks from Washington DC.
Todays rally is called a short covering rally and it has nothing to do about profits or people coming in and buying. When ever a short is made it has to be bought back to collect your money. It's counted as a buy makeing the stock market move up and no new money came in. Those who placed a short order are likely to have a stop set so if the market moves up it buys back the stock, this starts an avalanche of shorts buying back resulting a short covering rally.
How did they set up the rally? The Plunger team is buying bank and financial stocks (from the unspent tarp money)which pushes up the financial sector. The stock market can not rally until the financial moves first. They also use catalysis, lower inflation numbers which are doctored released this morning, yesterdays rumors about the up-tick rule, and more rumors on suspending the mark to market requirement for banks. All these are techniques used by the government and big investment firms along with specialist.
I hope gump understands that he/she is walking into a trap. Crooks like Cramer (cnbc) have been on the front pumping up this market while on the back he's setting short positions.(he was a specialist for Goldman Sachs)

[Unemployed_trader]

Wednesday 18 they tried to force out all the remaining shorts by pushing the market as high as they can. At 2:16 est the US dollar pulled back and you can verify this by going to Big charts and type ticker UUP (US Dollar) and see a huge drop. This means that the government can't loan more money from China and must print more. We will see inflation very soon and those who are on the side thinking they are protected by a down market will see the value of their dollars vanish. I noted about the Alt A loans a few months ago and it looks like inflation will set the next wave of defaults. I was hoping this would never happen since the dollar stayed up for several months but the cat is out of the bag and we have to deal with what we have. Don't buy long unless you know what you are doing the market is over sold and will make a correction.
In my opinion I think the rally just peaked today but I may be wrong? We will see tomorrow or the next few days.

[gump]

Gump I don't want to insult you but you are showing ignorance about what's happening in this market. If you're trading actively you should know what I am talking about when I give key points where this market is going. Do you even know why or how todays *178.73 rally occurred? I hope you didn't go on a spending spree today because you will be in a lot of trouble within days. I am not looking for a fight but constructive disagreement. At the end of the day we are all going to pay for the action of these crooks from Washington DC.
Todays rally is called a short covering rally and it has nothing to do about profits or people coming in and buying. When ever a short is made it has to be bought back to collect your money. It's counted as a buy makeing the stock market move up and no new money came in. Those who placed a short order are likely to have a stop set so if the market moves up it buys back the stock, this starts an avalanche of shorts buying back resulting a short covering rally.
How did they set up the rally? The Plunger team is buying bank and financial stocks (from the unspent tarp money)which pushes up the financial sector. The stock market can not rally until the financial moves first. They also use catalysis, lower inflation numbers which are doctored released this morning, yesterdays rumors about the up-tick rule, and more rumors on suspending the mark to market requirement for banks. All these are techniques used by the government and big investment firms along with specialist.
I hope gump understands that he/she is walking into a trap. Crooks like Cramer (cnbc) have been on the front pumping up this market while on the back he's setting short positions.(he was a specialist for Goldman Sachs)

Well, it won't do any good to take you to school so I will pass. You obviously are a market genius assuming a sample size of 2 weeks ::)

[Unemployed_trader]

I will no longer give any market info and the can't do types like gump good luck . Thank god we don't have to live in an extreme survival situation because people like gump would give up before the fight.
You lack patient and sound like the type that wants everything at the drop of a hat. You think a week rally is what drives this country then I have a bridge to sell you. As for the rest of the readers just place your stops and keep your profits.

[hvfpaints]

Sorry to hear that - I look forward to reading this thread. Don't let one nay-sayer run you off! Investing is a personal thing I think. Everyone has their own style. Personally, I tend to agree with your interpretation of this market. Look at this ralley in particular - what caused it? Did anyone hear any real good news like improving conditions, new industry openings, or indicators? No - nothing. This is a phoney ralley as proved by todays continued loss. Did hear of more job losses however. No bottom in site is my view.

[Unemployed_trader]

Nothing personal against you, it just hard to get people to understand how the market really works. I am a chartist and a technical which is very hard for most people to understand , even market experts like Cramer and Kudlow don't get it. They use fundamental methods and it works except it doesn't tell them when to get in or when to get out. As I stated earlier I won't post any more info because it causes too much confusion. If anyone is looking for more info this guy http://www.philsgang.com/GetPage.asp?id=375 (Phil Grande) can teach you how to trade correctly and reduce risk also he uses sound info that he has formulated to make decisions. I have been trading for over 25 years using technicals and so far it hasn't failed me.

[chloe3388]

Well heck, I was really learning alot from this thread.. Sorry you have decided not to continue..

[gump]

Post away, I already said I will pass on being critical of UT's posts

[Unemployed_trader]

Bloomberg news http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV (30 sec delay - free)
Big Charts http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ ( charts and other data - free)
Phil's Gang http://www.philsgang.com/GetPage.asp?id=375 (real info, anti communist, and good humor - free show in archives section.)

[hvfpaints]

Wondering if the market drop is wall streets way of punishing congress for the AIG bonus tax? Or is it the end of the bear trap rally?

[Unemployed_trader]

The cockroaches from Washington slipped the 90% tax after the Friday market closed. Like all good socialist they will change the 90% tax to include everyone who earns 250K or more. Most people who make this much profit reinvest it back into their business. This makes the job more secure for their employees and expands the business so more people can be hired. Congress is killing any chance for the economy to recover.
The rally ended March 18 at the closing. We are in the pull back stage and it can last 1 or more weeks.

[Unemployed_trader]

Don't blame AIG for the problems. AIG is an insurance group and doesn't buy or make loans. They insured loans from Goldman Sachs and were tricked into insuring bad grade loans that were cooked to AAA rating. If they knew that the loans were not AAA they wouldn't even bothered to look at them. AIG is the victim of a crossfire between Washington and Wall Street firms yet they are taking all of the fault because both sides have more pull from the media and if the real info was revealed both sides would be punished.

[hvfpaints]

I don't blame AIG at all really. I think all this bruhaha is just another distraction play by Washington. If they can stir everybody up about 165 million in bonuses then maybe they will quit asking about 10-100 times this amount and more that was given in bailout funds and what happened to it.

[chloe3388]

Thanks for the links!! I keep Bloomberg up all the time.

Did they put any kind of sunset on that 90% tax? The whole thing has the aspect of retribution from congress. They got caught and as usual need a scape goat. Now are they going to use that tax against anyone who doesn't play the game with them?

[Michael32170]

Don't blame AIG for the problems. AIG is an insurance group and doesn't buy or make loans. They insured loans from Goldman Sachs and were tricked into insuring bad grade loans that were cooked to AAA rating. If they knew that the loans were not AAA they wouldn't even bothered to look at them. AIG is the victim of a crossfire between Washington and Wall Street firms yet they are taking all of the fault because both sides have more pull from the media and if the real info was revealed both sides would be punished.

If you notice, almost all the trouble companies they are bailing out, are market makers.......Not banks.

[Unemployed_trader]

March 13 I posted this and it is starting so get ready to sell.

Friday the market is slowing down and we will see a W formation. There will be a possible pull back next week and if it doesn't go lower than March 9 lows (6440) a violent rally will occur pushing the stock market up 1000 points. This is the point that all stock holders should be dumping their stocks and any one who is stuck in the market should consider this an escape point to secure your remaining principal.
Now the strategy should be to short and if you start to make money move your trailing stop daily to further secure more of your gains just make sure you don't place your stops too close or else you will we stopped out.

[Unemployed_trader]

Talking Show whores CNBC are pumping up market yet their guest (the real experts) are saying they are full of it and not looking at the real numbers. This proves that anyone who can't make it in the stock market work for CNBC and take their marching orders without question.
This rally is about government loaning more money to failing companies. You can't make a failing business recover by giving them more money all you are doing is prolonging their final death. We the tax payers and holders of US currency are all going to get screwed at the end!

[Unemployed_trader]

May 25 another head fake rally. Beware of miss reported numbers they don't add up to previous reports. Few days you will see a different report on the status of the economy so don't be fooled. Wall Street firms are getting rid of all over bought stocks to sell to unsuspecting suckers. This may be hard to believe at this moment just stay on the side lines and see the real info come out in a few days

[Michael32170]

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/O/e/2/pitchforks-tmwha090318.jpg

[Unemployed_trader]

Don't let these cartoon drawing idiots misguide you. The real fault should be at congress for setting off this depression. Congress minions are trying to divert the fault on the private sector and if you looked deeper into the bonus you will find a total different story. For example the AIG bonus (it was really a pay) went to a group of private individuals (the best minds in this country) who took no pay and worked for 6 months 12 hours per day and 7 days a week helping to restructure AIG's over sized and inefficient organization. They saved the tax payers billions by helping AIG get back up so they can recover. When was the last time the media told you about this story?

[Unemployed_trader]

April 1 (fools day) The big institutions are letting the market rally up a little everyday to wear down the remaining shorts and to bring in all the little people to buy on the long position. As soon as the till is filled they will let this market fall and collect on the bottom when everyone is scared to death and want out. The specialist (each company stock controller) and the plunger team will pump up this market just like March 9 without any good news or earnings. I guess they will push up the market another 1000 points and then start a buying trend. The cycle then starts all over just like right now.

[hvfpaints]

Maybe another week or so up? I'm getting ancy - there really is no good news to base this current rally on. Jobs are still being eliminated, record unemployment, new home starts are only up compared to last MONTH, not last year, it is all BS in my book. I've made a couple dollars now, time to retreat back to Stable value again. I'll probably sell next week.

[Unemployed_trader]

Earnings Monday and the outlook is ugly. If everything goes accordingly we should see a pull back this week assuming that the government doesn't cover up all the reported earnings with disinformation. Last weeks rally was the mutual fund managers putting money into the market. Don't assume that they are putting money into the market because the bottom is in. They are required by law to put the money into the market even if it is crashing. It isn't their money they are risking and besides they make commissions from the new money they receive. Wait for the pull back before getting into a long position. Use slow stochastic set to 10%k and 3%d, this is the set values for a 3 month chart. Yahoo finance also gives free charts and you can set one up for yourself. It will reveal which direction the market is going and at what momentum. Charting is 100% accurate but the government is constantly manipulating the market therefore making the stock market unstable and at times look better than the charts reveal.

[Unemployed_trader]

Sorry about earning report it is Tuesday and todays market traded flat with little movement.

[Unemployed_trader]

Earnings came in today and it's bad. Don't you find it amazing how the rating agency can get within 1 cent of expectation. The truth is the company rig the numbers to within 1 cent of what the rating agency stated first. This makes the company look good until the next quarter since the expectation is now set higher. So unless most business start to make earnings and not just meet expectations this market will continue to go down. If anyone has ran a business then they know what I am talking about.

[hvfpaints]

I'm getting two outlooks from all my current reading. The first believe this is a pullback but the market will imrove throuh out the summer. The other is very pessimistic, basically is is going to plummet over the next two- three weeks and maybe find a new low. What are you seeing?

[Unemployed_trader]

You are right about the two outlook. This market will continue to pull back until Golden Sack (Goldman Sachs) report earnings on April 14. I suspect Golden Sack will cook the books on reported earnings causing the market to rally and then to further the rally April 20 the other banks will also cook the books and continue the rally. April 22 the last of the financial will do the same and we will see a high 8000 to 9000 DOW. This is my opinion and if Golden Sack pulls it off the rest will follow.
I don't think it will be wise to buy since it is beyond overbought and a correction will occur.

The banks are in a lot of trouble because of the Alt A loans. Most Alt A loans have adjustable rates and they can't qualify for a fix rate.(now you know why the government is keeping interest rates so low) It isn't because the banks don't have the money but the people who want to refinance owe more than the house is worth and no bank in their right mind will risk giving a loan larger than the value of the house. If this person walks away and defaults on the loan the bank has a house that is worth less than the amount loaned and all the bank depositors lose their money. The government can't bailout all the banks on a full scale because they don't have enough money. Assuming the government prints more money we will see inflation just like Zimbabwe and the great depression will be nothing compared to the oncoming depression.

[Unemployed_trader]

The cooking of the banks are starting sooner than I thought. Wells Fargo reported early it was suppose to report in alphabetical order which tell us they are desperate. It only rally today market +246.27 and it should have been a +500 rally. Wells Fargo reported first because they have the least debt and should have the best chance of pushing the most. Only time will tell how high they can push a dead market with low volume traded.
Here are some links to explain what is happening:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Obama-Timing-right-for-apf-14894661.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=TBD&ccode =TBD
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/229125/Just-Trust-Us-the-Banks-Are-Fine!?tickers=WFC,JPM,GS,MS,XLF,SKF,FAS

[Unemployed_trader]

April 14 Goldman Sachs tries to do what Wells Fargo did April 9 and it flopped. They were suppose to report April 15 after hours but they reported today before market opened. Their report shows that they made record high earnings and beat expectations beyond normal. No believed them and their stock dropped $15.04 per share (-11.56%) and after hours it dropped another $.85 after hours (-.74%). Now you know what I was saying earlier about cooking of the books by changing the Mark to Market rule which allows them to omit the debt from the bad loans. Blame the crook Geitner for allowing this change on the reporting since he was the author of the original $750 billion dollar bailout bill during President Bush term and now the crook is pumping up this false market. We have to let this market pull back and reach a real bottom or else our debt becomes larger each day it is cooked. The only reason they want to hold up and rally this market is to help all the bastards in congress and wall street sell their over priced stocks to us and then buy it back when a crash happens. They then start the cycle all over again playing with our emotions and confusing us.

[Unemployed_trader]

They are doing it again rallying this market and bring people in to buy over bought stocks. Monday is Bank of America report and the final of the big banks. I suspect it will be the last big push up to high 800 to 900 for SPY. Be on the look out for a 10% or more pullback before they try to rally it again.

This is a documentary of the 1929 market crash see if there isn't any similarity.

part 1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLnDPntfNFw&feature=related
part 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPnAPzeIB8s&feature=related
part 3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCX-6rmBA4I&feature=related

[Unemployed_trader]

I forgot to post part 4 and 5 so here it is:

part4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbZzW1lIc_g&feature=related
part 5 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hzN6HFqMQk&feature=related

[Unemployed_trader]

Business loans are starting to fail. The largest shopping mall investment group is filing for bankruptcy at a estimated 27 billion dollar loss. A lot of money was loaned from the banks and they can't payback so the banks can kiss all that fake earnings they just reported. The amount of money owed from all the failing business makes the sub-prime loans look like a drop in the bucket. It will exceed several trillion dollars when it's all over and the government won't be able to bailout more bad loans. Wait until you see the next wave of bad news which will be the Alt. A loans that are showing signs of failing.

[Unemployed_trader]

Cramer is such a lier. http://www.cnbc.com/id/30268549 this link should point where he takes his marching orders from. This market was pumped up by fake bank earning reports and today everyone finally stopped buying into this B.S. Bank of America reported large profits and great earnings yet they dropped 24.34%. Tomorrow we might get a small rally from the plunger team trying to further pump this over bought market but I think it will fail.

[Unemployed_trader]

Bloomberg news is reporting higher than usual insider selling of stocks. This may not be anything but I suspect they know something the general public doesn't know and are taking precautions. Few companies are meeting expectations and even fewer are making earnings so why is this market moving up every few days? The government is using a form of speculation called effects that work like rumors and even fool the professionals. These effects are manipulation of rules and laws but earnings have nothing to do with it. The dot com era was caused by effects which allowed companies to lie about their earnings and the most recent housing bubble was laws that forced banks to loan to anyone without checking their ability to payback.

[Unemployed_trader]

I can't believe that they pulled off this major head fake rally today. No earnings, no growth of any business, yet they fooled everyone on such small volume and now the talking heads are telling us that the recession is over and we hit a bottom. For 25 years of trading I have seen small manipulations but never at this level for this long. I have a bad feeling that this market is a lot worst than I thought and a depression is no longer taken as a joke.

[Unemployed_trader]

There is a lot of suspicious activity this whole week that indicate companies know the jig is up and a correction is coming.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=au8cyqeJFifg&refer=home
http://pragcap.com/sold-to-you
If you want to know who to blame and why this all happened listen to Phil Grande show. He explains how the crooks are running Wall Street and Washington and tarp money was given to the financial yet everyone else was pushed to the side (auto industry).
http://74.52.110.253/Hour1may1.mp3

[gump]

There is a lot of suspicious activity this whole week that indicate companies know the jig is up and a correction is coming.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=au8cyqeJFifg&refer=home
http://pragcap.com/sold-to-you
If you want to know who to blame and why this all happened listen to Phil Grande show. He explains how the crooks are running Wall Street and Washington and tarp money was given to the financial yet everyone else was pushed to the side (auto industry).
http://74.52.110.253/Hour1may1.mp3

So the execs are cashing in some shares with what is traditionally a good time of the year for stocks. This is a fact and is nothing new - sell in May. They probably don't see much of a turnaround anytime soon. I don't blame 'em, nothing wrong with it.

[Unemployed_trader]

I wished it was just that simple but they are cashing all their shares which doesn't occur often because it will cause panic within a company. This is beyond normal for stock sell off compared to other times and the only time it was this large in volume was during the depression. Also a side note the feds just printed another 3+ trillion dollars during the flu hype which was a cover for them to pull this off while we were not looking.

[Michael32170]

$350,000,000 Doesn't seem like that much selling.

[gump]

The bloomberg report said that it was the highest level of selling since 2007 ???

[Unemployed_trader]

If you guys want convince yourselves that everything is going fine then go ahead. I am going to prepare for a short when the plunger team tries to push S&P 500 past 900 and if it can't hold after the stress test. I have heard so many people tell me that we are in a recovery and no one can explain how they came to that conclusion? What bothers me even more is the parroting "the bottom is in" from the talking heads on tv. How the hell can 5 years of over paying for homes and going into debt be cleaned up in 4 months while the government is doing nothing except buying stocks from the banks and financial. Have you ever tried to refinance a home in this market and then told you have no equity and can't qualify. They raised the down payment to 30% for most homes and cut everyone credit limit in half and they tell us that everything is going fine. This should be obvious that we are heading into deeper trouble.

[Unemployed_trader]

Here is another B.S. that is repeated so often that many believe it must be true because the talking heads are saying it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25cWcYok56I&feature=fvhl
Interest rates may be low but who can refinance if no banks or loaning groups are willing to loan on property that is less than the amount to be loaned.(example: home $500,000 @ 2005 now $300,000 @ present but you still owe $450,000)
Interest rates are low because if they raise it most of the alt A loans will default (all are a.r.m. loans) and we will have a super housing bubble pop. Yet they need to raise rates to encourage foreign investors to buy us treasury bonds so the debt can be paid. Although I don't like using treasury bonds to continue paying debt long term it buys time until a real leader with balls can take on Washington's political machine.

[Michael32170]

Data (http://www.insider-monitor.com/insider-trading-and-market.php)

[gump]

No doubt there is some + correlation there but it's hard to tell how strong it is without data plots. Also there were some HUGE insider buys in Mar '09, wonder how much those purchases weight the overall blip. In other words, maybe most insiders were still not positive and were not buying but the large purchases made the action look more positive.

Again, Jan to May are typically good months in the market. Insiders can sell for all sorts of reasons which is why I look at the buys more often. I know if I had a large chunk of my net worth tied up in a single stock, I would sell at the 1st rally when my ROI turned > +XX% even if the economy was in fantastic shape.

[Unemployed_trader]

May 6 banks are requesting more tarp money. This is what I was talking about the Finance and Banks are in a lot of trouble and they are hiding it. Geitner the crook changed the reporting requirement by removing the mark to market rule. Mark to market rule was installed during the late 80 when banks were lying about their earnings resulting in Lincoln savings and loan and other banks going bankrupt.
The so called best bank Wells Fargo needs 15 billion more and yet they are up. Now you know that the financial and banks are rigged by the plunger team. Every time they fall the government secretly buys their stocks to drive them up even though no one wants them.

[Unemployed_trader]

Price of gold is rising from all the printed money going to buy financial and banking stocks. GLD stock etf ticker is starting to go up too due to over printing and spending on over priced bank and financial stocks. GDX is all gold mining companies and business dealing directly with gold (not jewelery). These last two months that I have been warning about was bought with printed money by government and not tax collected money. Inflation is getting larger everyday and if you go to the grocery store you will notice about 15% increase in prices overall, wait till fall or sooner and it will double to 30% or more. Inflation will be the straw that will break the camels back and cause business and alt a loans to default. Talking heads and government is saying recession is over and they are right, depression is starting!!

[Unemployed_trader]

Another good example of the market not reflecting the real market is to look at Bank of America price and P/E ratio. Feb. 20 they went low of $2.53 and 3 months later it is 500% up? They just reported record high earnings, the highest in it's entire history. They were allowed to cook this up by omitting their greatest loss bad loans. All of the banks and financial have reported record high profits yet most still need more tarp money. Does this add up or does something stink?

[Michael32170]

Part of this is due to eliminating the mark-to-market rule. The fake increase in asset value shows up as profits, and later income tax.

[Unemployed_trader]

Fed Reserve doesn't even know where all those trillions went and the recent 3 trillion dollars that I posted on May 2 is gone and the Fed Reserve doesn't know where it went.
Here is a link on the grilling of Federal Reserve Inspector General Elizabeth Coleman:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXlxBeAvsB8&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.mises.o rg%2Fblog%2F&feature=player_embedded

[Unemployed_trader]

Here is more dirty tricks that are leaking out. Rep. Alan Grayson is putting his life in his own hands and someone higher will silence him and I am not talking about blackmail.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4TdKIDPp6c&NR=1
Wall street is pumping up this market with printed money that the federal reserve claims that they don't know where it went or can't release because it would destroy the creditability of the US dollar.

[Unemployed_trader]

Another clip on the cover up where the trillions went and the Federal Reserve will not talk about it and yet they are making decisions that congress is suppose to. The plunger team spent the majority of the money(buying financial and bank stocks) that congress has requested an audit on where it went.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj0JAfq4esk&feature=channel

[Unemployed_trader]

Market is showing signs of key reversal and if SP500 brakes 877 then the pullback will occur. Those on long position should either short of get out and stay on the side lines until market reaches the bottom of stochastic. I may not get the exact day of the pullback but I am within only a few points off and statics with charts and key information are never wrong.(don't forget to always set your stops)

[Unemployed_trader]

Here is a link to a man who knows what he is talking about. http://www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport
Every time he is invited to talk on CNBC or any of the talking head shows he is either ridiculed or cut off and never allowed to finish what he was saying. After a few months the market does exactly what he was warning about. The talking heads then invite him and then continue to do the same thing. I think they know he's right but instead of showing any humility they reveal how shallow they are.

[Unemployed_trader]

Keep an eye out on GM on June 1st 8 am est they are filing bankruptcy. This may be the catalysis for government to let market fall since Goldman Sach has sold all their shares and are position to short. They will use this bankruptcy as an excuse for pullback so no one will blame government for not supporting market.

[Unemployed_trader]

Market is rigged as usual GM files bankruptcy and market rally up 200+ points. They are using the market in China reason that they need materials first when market turns around. Yet China isn't ordering more materials and they are saying they need materials.
Another link that may explain why this market is moving up despite the continual bad news.
http://inthemoneystocks.com/n_article_archive_single.php?id=31

[fredfl]

Last friday a very large spx? buy occured in the last few minutes of trading and the naked shorting of gold by the large banks has also been suggested by GATA you may be on to something. How often has this occured?

[Unemployed_trader]

This type of trick used by government has been going on since May 9 at my first posting. I have been warning about this dirty trick that the tax cheat Geithner has been doing all these months. 3 months have passed and no one even believed me until it became so obvious that it's now too late. Gold market is going up from over printing of US dollars and it's ushering in hyperinflation. They raised up interest rates on t-bills this Thursday and it was slipped in quietly. When ever government raise or lower interest rates they always report it out public several days to a week ahead so market can adjust before it goes into effect. By not reporting and slipping it in means inflation is out of control. They say it is to encourage people to buy t-bills but that's b.s. since well informed investors aren't that stupid to buy t-bills at this point. It was intended to calm down China who has over a trillion dollars in t-bills so they don't cash out. Prepare for a short position when government can't continue to prop up false market. This is not a new concept on rigging market but it has never been done this long and this much which will cause hyperinflation.

[Unemployed_trader]

Crooks plunger team (President's Working Group on Financial Markets) has done it again today at 3:38 pm est and pumped up market with tens of billion of dollars. Market fell from real info leaked out that unemployment is worst than reported and we were all lied to about how rosy the market was. It dropped past 220 points and then plunger team just pumped billions into financial and banking sector to push market up before closing of day. This is a very dangerous game they are doing to everyone. Plunger team is saving their buddies in finance and banks at the cost of sacrificing every who uses US dollars which is everyone.
Here is a link direct from the horses mouth that the plunger team exist.
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/financial-markets/fin-market-policy/

[Unemployed_trader]

Fridays June 5 unemployment report was cooked to be lower using birth/death model report. They reported 345K unemployment which should of pushed stock market 300+ points compared to previous 600K+ unemployment. Most of previous unemployed were removed off unemployment list when their unemployment checks ran out even though most were still unemployed. What was not reported openly was the raising of interest rate to 3.85% after opening of Friday's market. This raising of interest rate killed the gap up of 100+ points to collapse and run flat all day. It is very important to know that the stock market hates raising interest rates and government used lowered unemployment report to counter the effects of raising interest rate. By raising interest it tells us that we are in very dire straits and inflation is here.

[Michael32170]

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/graphics/LNS13000000_93122_1244657914268.gif

Employment data (http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&serie s_id=LNS13000000&output_view=net_1mth)

http://www.bls.gov/cps/


Look real close and you will see 787,000 job losses in May.

[Michael32170]

http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20090714/broadmarket_article.htm

[Grizzy]

I've been following Bob Chapman's "The International Forecaster" for several years, now. He is Very Good at what he does. As this thing unfolds he'll continue to be all over it. The following link leads to The "International Forecaster" online where it is updated Wednesdays and Saturdays offering an exerpt from his publication.

http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/content.php?topicId=2


~Grizzy~

[Michael32170]

http://www.nowandfutures.com

[gump]

Despite all signs pointing to a very very slow recovery, the market has taken off (call it a stablization rally). As they say for the shorts - the market can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent