A Reason for Optimism

[Hampster]

This is an excellent opinion !!

http://blogs.usatoday.com/oped/2008/12/expect-a-market.html

[gregabob]

Here's a few reasons I don't share the USA Today's blogger opinion. Piston engine aircraft sales have been down for quite a while. These aircraft are used by small and medium sized businesses mostly. When things get tuff, these businesses can move quickly to cut costs, and the company plane is one of the first things to go if it can't pay for itself. Piper, Cessna, Cirrus and Mooney have all cut back production and laid off large numbers of employees. Second is the Baltic Dry Index-this has to do with shipping, and has taken a huge hit recently. Overseas shipping of raw materials and finished goods is way down. These numbers can't be manipulated like unemployment or the CPI. Third is the Trillions in fiat money made up out of thin air and pumped into the economy-I think this will only lead to serious inflation next year. Commodities prices are way down due to de-leveraging by brokers and banks, and reduced demand. I don't think we'll be out of the woods anytime soon. Don't mean to be a killjoy, it's just the way I see things. :-/

[gwhilikerz]

I fear we are quite a ways from bottom yet.

[swedishfish]

I fear we are quite a ways from bottom yet.


yup... everything I have been seeing makes me think so too.

[Vidman]

The Bottom...I wonder where the bottom will be. The optimists say that no matter what congress does, the Bottom will happen and the market will turn by year end. The realist says to hope for the best and plan for the worst. The pessimist says the cities will empty of the hungry and the outlying areas will be flooded with refugees spreading crime and mayhem. Imagine having to watch others go hungry to keep your own family fed.

[Unemployed_trader]

The bottom will happen when it happens and we will realize it after the facts. No one can tell you when it will happen because it happens very slowly and is very hard to tell until it passes. The storm is not over as there is several major hurdles that must be cleared out. The first was the sub-prime loan scam (ACORN) and we are only starting to feel its effects the next is the alternate A loan that is even bigger. Who are the alt a loan? They are middle class Americans with an excellent credit rating of 750 or greater but there is one catch, they loaned beyond their wealth and are just making the payments on time. The trigger that will make most of them default will be the incoming inflation. Even though their monthly payments are fixed the cost of basic staples, gas, electric, etc.. will rise and wipe out any money they have left. They will have only one option starve and pay the loans on time or eat and default on their loans. The other hurdles I will leave out because it is too depressing and we need to concentrate on our families, friends, and community since it is really what America is about.