For you folks that predicted recession CORRECTLY,

[Terri]

For you folks that predicted recession CORRECTLY, what do you think will happen next?

My Mom, bless her heart, says that the stocks might be forming a "cup", and if they are that means the stocks are ALMOST done crashing.

If the stocks are done crashing, I think the economy will be better soon.

What are you folks predicting as MOST LIKELY?

Yeah, I know, things CAN sgo really sour, and I have done what I could to cushion the blow,
but that does not mean they are LIKELY to go sour! What do you think is LIKELY!??

[pinetreefarm]

I think that without the auto bailout, 46,000 would be out of work. Then I think it would spiral downward so quickly, I doubt it could be helped. There is no credit available so that is really hurting them now. Only credit that can be had is through some local small banks who know their customers and meet their credit standards.

I was a little girl in the early 1940's and I remember how we were lived then as compared to kids today.

I think it will get a lot worse before it gets better. Perhaps the whole USA will be better off in the long run....just maybe.

Pine

[crafty2002]

I am just praying I have two years to buy a tractor, electric fence, chicken wire, chickens, pigs, goats, and a few other things would be nice but I don't see it happening. Not all of it any way.
It is all going south. Just don't know how long before it does.
JMHO
Dennis

[fnfredux]

It seems that nobody really gets how much trouble we are in.
NOBODY can pay the bills. I heard on NPR yesterday that the present debt in this nation THE DEBT YOU AND I AND OUR KIDS AND GRANDKIDS AND GREAT GRANDKIDS OWE, EVEN THOSE NOT BORN OR CONCIEVED YET WILL TAKE SEVENTY FIVE YEARS TO PAY AT CURRENT TAX RATES/MONIES TO THE TREASURY.
Do you really think that a turn around in the stock market will help?
The treasury is printing WAY too much money to "give" to the public in low interest loans...a public that already owes way too much, public (GVT) and private debt.
Now one more thing for you to ponder...the NATIONAL DEBT is just that the National Debt. Now to figure out YOUR debt, incurred BY the GVT(s) figure in your city, county, state debt.
Tell me how a rise in the stock market of three or four thousand points(don't hold your breath) could POSSIBLY help? Even with that rise, people would not regain what they had as mutual funds sold low what they had bought high.
There is NO WAY OUT.
They print more money, but it is worth(less) as is any asset your have. You guys just don't get it I guess...you WILL have more "money" at some point, but it will be devalued money. YOU CANNOT WIN.
By allowing the GVT to act as recklessly as they have, by clamouring to be "saved" from yourselves the country not just now, but for generations to come, has been sold down the river.
I fully expect to see my grandkids leave this country to "make a better life" in a country not so wallowed in debt and socialism.

[Buck]

For you folks that predicted recession CORRECTLY, what do you think will happen next?

My Mom, bless her heart, says that the stocks might be forming a "cup", and if they are that means the stocks are ALMOST done crashing.

If the stocks are done crashing, I think the economy will be better soon.

What are you folks predicting as MOST LIKELY?

Yeah, I know, things CAN sgo really sour, and I have done what I could to cushion the blow,
but that does not mean they are LIKELY to go sour! What do you think is LIKELY!??

It's hard to say what will happen since none of "us" is in control of events
that affect mankind other than money. If these events go badly nothing
about money will matter one bit. If these events go well then mankind
can "play" with money all they want to.

One needs to remember that money is an invention of mankind and as such
is totally unpredictable. Just put a damper on your "wants" and take care of
your "needs" and all should do Ok.

[kawalekm]

Just as the sub-prime crisis has reached its tail end, economic analysts are focusing their attention on ARMs, adjustable rate mortgages. An analyst featured on 60 minutes last Sunday predicted that 50% of those mortgages would be driven into foreclosure once they adjust, and it might more likely be as high as 70%. This was going to continue throughout 2009 and into 2010.

With these kinds of stats to think about, it seems there is no way the economy could possibly get better before 2011. So, for 2009-2010 expect there to be increasing defaults, increasing unemployment, and decreasing value in the stock market. Anything else is just wishful thinking.
Michael

[flatwater]

2009 will be pretty much in the toilet. 2010 in about the middle things will start to pick up some. You must remember that there are no quick fixes to these things. We didn't get into them overnight and we wouldn't get out of them overnight either.
flatwater

[CanNerd]

I think 2010 will be too soon for any recovery. Food prices and supplies will continue to worsen and will continue for 4-5 years before any kind of recovery seems possible. The hard part is WW3 is predicted to occur soon which will be short (1 1/2 years) which will be devastating, but the end of it will spark the ability and desire for recovery, as it has with the past two world wars.

The problem with all of this is many of the conditions here on Earth are being caused by cycles of celestial events that we have no control over. I'm actually amazed at the number of people in our population that total ignore the existence and influence our universe has on our tiny planet. Even the Moon has its influences as does the Sun, but the influences can and are more far reaching and can take 26,000 years or more to complete a cycle.

Nasa is tracking the latest cycle of of sun spot/flare activity that lasts for 11 years and is expected to be the worst in over 600 years and will peak in about 4-5 years. This activity will knock out electronics and could effect life itself.

[grower]

I am not an economist, or even very wise in the ways of economics -- my own or the nation's -- but I have been aware that this economic trouble was coming for over 20 years, because someone I know was told it would happen, by God. (no, I'm not a nut case) So... based on what I've heard from reputable men of God and what I've read in scripture, I believe things will briefly appear to get better before it all really goes down the toilet. I believe an attack on this country of some sort will exacerbate our troubles. I believe that we will not have another president after Barack Obama.

Honestly, I don't know how to prepare for what I see coming. I've got a bit of extra food put back and a small flock of chickens in the back yard, but nothing near what I would consider the ideal situation to ride out what's coming. God has not allowed it. I believe he wants us to trust him completely. Therein lies safety.

[RangerRick]

I got out of the market in February, wish it would have been January but I still was able to save my backside. I moved everything into CD's & money market. I haven't made alot since then but I didn't lose my shirt either and making that decision to get out when everything was seemingly going great guns and explaining it all to Sweetie was really a dilly but she is an understanding and trusting wife.

As I look into my crystal ball that looks more like a snow globe on drugs I still see many problems in our near future. I've never seen "throwing money" at a problem a good fix, even if all you're trying to do is jump-start things. Real capitalism works if government will just stay outta the way ""within reason"". Clearly, some regulation is required but our government usually works with a shovel when it should use a small but very pointed knife. I exept new housing to be in the can for the next 3+ years however the rental market will boom and there will be some real money to be made in commercial property for those that can hang on a bit. The oil market is really a mess and as long as "new cars" are tanking oil will struggle as well. The used car market will do well as well as repair services as folks will be hanging onto the "old toad" longer. Liquid gas will see some slow but steady growth. By-in-large the overall job market will be hurt with unemployment rising to +9% over the next 3 or so years, especially in the trades and light industry. As pocket books tighten retail will slow but discound houses like Walmart, Dollar Tree and Dollar General will flourish. Hollywood will have some real difficulties making money for the next several years and will become even more vocal political as a result of their piece of the pie getting much smaller. I think those with some smart money to invest may be well served to look into international shipping and especially in Greece or China. Trucking will do well as long as fuel cost can be held at a supportable level. If I was looking to go into a private small business I'd probably go towards some type of "second hand" store or general mechanic/handy-man field.

I am making no plans to get back into the market for the forseeable future as I think we will see a 7400 dow within the next 2 years with some wild rides both up and down as long as market movers and shakers are allowed to run amock manipulating movement. The market used to be about investing but for the last 10 years it is strictly "crap shoot" gambleing. Fortunately I retired early back in 2001 so I'm going to just sit things out and study trends for quite awhile.

:o

Rick

[JeffColorado]

I don’t think we’ve seen nearly all of it yet, all that bail out money has to be paid by somebody, and the longer it takes the bigger the problem will be – but more are lining up with their hand out looking to be saved, This AM it’s the real-estate investors. Then who’s going to be next? Not you or me that’s for sure. That being said, how the economy does is largely a matter of the confidence the population has in the system, if the majority thinks everything is OK and starts spending etc, then it will most likely be OK, at least for the short term. If the mood stays down, then the economy will be down.

[gump]

I didn't predict anything but I believe this will take some time to work through this mess.

However, I still think there are some interesting looking investments opportunities out there depending on your risk level.

Preferreds, bonds, a few dividend paying stocks. I have been buying TIPS - great deal to me. Consider the expected real return of S&P stocks is 4% used in financial modeling. TIPS are offering a real return of 3-3.5% at a fraction of the risk.