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WileyCoyote
09-19-2008, 06:24 AM
Some of my friends blog about how they are losing money in their 401Ks, the values of everything are dropping, and they don't know what to do. Now that the Prez candidates have finally noticed that there is an economic problem, suddenly everyone is talking about it. I also have friends who are collecting silver, gold, and even jewelry as a 'hedge fund'. Most of these folk are "city folk", who know something is happeneing but who are trying to convince themselves that it will only be temporary. So I wrote this in my blog yesterday...


I've got friends who started buying gold and silver 10 years ago. They are as adamant as JP Morgan, who said, "Gold is money. Nothing else."

I watched the "gold rush" in the 80's, when my friends were in a panic, 'getting in' on the gold rush then, buying Krugerrands left and right, bragging about their rapidly increasing wealth, rubbing it into the faces of those who weren't 'smart enough' to get in on the Gold Rush. Three years later I lost a friend when the price of gold had dropped into the basement, and I teasingly asked, "So, Ken, how's yer Krugerrands?" Ouch. It was wrong, even mean, but it still was fun.

I have friends who are buying silver bars, small ones, two a week, standing order, comes right out of their paychecks. They have stashes of them everywhere. They buy the small ones because, they say, they want to be able to buy groceries and have the grocer able to make change - or, if he can't, at least they won't lose much. Friends who are buying jewels, stashing them away, in ornate settings of gold. They believe the combination will help save them, too. I won't even respect the people who are buying worthless scraps of paper; "gold certificates". Sure, they are increasing in value right along with the gold - for now. But what were greenbacks, the old 'In God We Trust" dollars, but once-upon-a-time gold certificates? Who is going to make the ultimate decision as to whether or not they are valuable or worthless? Not the folks buying them.

Maybe it's the Irish in me. I just don't get it. Know what I believe in? Food. The ability to raise one's own from seed, from chicks, from heifers and sows and nannies. Say you've got a gold or silver bar. Say I've got a chicken yard. You're hungry. I'm not. Can you eat that gold bar or Krugerrand or necklace? Nope. Can you trade me? Yup - but I set the price. Law of supply and demand. If I don't want to trade, I'll still eat. And because I know how to preserve food, I can eat in the dead of winter right thru til the next harvest, the next birthing, the next hatching. If you sit on your gold and silver, what will happen to it? Will it hatch out tiny gold bars? If you keep it in a nice barn or pasture, will it give birth to cute little baby toe-rings?

I will of course have bills to pay, so I will be able to trade the necessities of life for the necessities of life. But gold? Silver? that's for people who can't produce. Of course, that's just my Irish coming thru.

What if gold and silver become illegal to have and hold again? Do you think the same could happen to gardeners or animal husbanders? Yes, I realize many local governments have made it illegal to have a garden or a chicken, much less a cow or pig, in their jurisdictions. But as long as one is deep in the country, and gets grandfathered in, getting one's productivity banned is far less likely than having one's gold or silver confiscated.

More - not too many folks will steal something that they have to work to make produce - but they will steal gold and silver. What will happen to my friend with the storage unit full of silver bars, or the one with the safe full of jewelry? What will happen when they take out these things and try to use them?

No, if they really believe that things will get that bad, then they have to know that whenever you have more than everyone else, then everyone else will want to take it away from you. Flashing gold or silver around a supermarket full of struggling folks - maybe not a good idea.

See, that's the thing we have forgotten most in our service-economy mindset - when people need things, they don't look to the drones, the salespeople, the middleman, or the guy with the most gold - they look to the producers. Maybe that's why corporations are buying up ranches and farms out West. You might want to think about that. Which folks are going to be the producers, and which the drones who need?

"Silver and gold
silver and gold
Mean so much more when I see
Silver and gold decorations
on every Christmas tree." (with apologies to Burl Ives for my lousy voice)

Pretty, and bottom line pretty useless, if you ask me.
What are your values? Do you think that food will go sky high, or that money or barter will hold sway?

cinok
09-19-2008, 11:33 AM
That was very well put But as we all know there wil be a need for hard currency.I agree with you that food and resources will be more important

ryanmercer
09-20-2008, 05:37 AM
Nice post :)

mercedesrules
10-17-2008, 06:32 PM
...Three years later I lost a friend when the price of gold had dropped into the basement, and I teasingly asked, "So, Ken, how's yer Krugerrands?" ...

Had they disappeared?! * :)

I agree with food being more basic but I also think that it is highly unlikely that a subsistance/barter system would last forever - even after a civil war or fascist takeover and liberty revolution. Eventually, the division of labor would reassert itself. Money use would restart. It's not like we'd forget what it was.

Note: I don't recommend precious metals as an "investment"; only as "insurance".

Bones
11-30-2008, 11:10 AM
Just for a historical perspective on the price of silver over the years. You can get a complete list here. Seems to me if I was using silver to make money well I could just as easily lose money. If I bought in 1979 and even held it to this day I would still be losing. Not saying not to buy it but I will say don't put all your eggs in one basket. gold did increase in value but only in the last year 1980 gold was 612.00 and steady until Aug 20007 at 675.00 today it is 822.00
http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

and some good reading at their homepage.
http://www.kitco.com/
London Fix average
1792 1.29 NOTE did not change until 1862
1860 1.29
1861 1.29
1862 1.70
1863 1.95
1864 2.93 big hike we were at war
1865 1.88
1916 .75
1917 .89
1918 1.01 Note price hike hmm we were at war
1919 1.33
1920 .65
1927 .53
1928 .57
1929 .48
1930 ..33
1931 .30
1932 .25
1933 .43
1934 ..54
1935 .58
1936 .45
1941 .35
1942 .44
1943 .44
1944 .44
1945 .70 note price hike hmm we were at war
1946 .86
1947 .74
1977 4.70
1972 1.97
1978 5.93
1979 21.73 big price hike have to research more to find out why
1980 16.39
1981 8.43
1996 4.73
1997 5.95
1998 5.49
1999 5.21
2000 4.95
2001 4.37
2002 4.59
2003 4.87
2004 6.67
2005 7.31
2006 11.46 Price hike hmmm we are at war
2007 high of 15.92 low of 11.67
2008 high of 20.92 and Nov 2008 price is 9.17

pinetree64
12-06-2008, 06:25 AM
I am stacking Silver and Gold. Why, diversification. I agree that in the survivalist barter system other things are better - food and ammo ( I have over 10K rounds of 22). But, I started stacking as I have lost over $400K in the markets and am scared by what is going on in the world economy. I am still investing and selling options, buying bonds and cds, but I have been adding silver lately. Gold is too pricey still. Places like EBAY have really added to the liquidity of S&G. You have a world market and someone is always wanting gold. With the dollar's decline, I want something that will maintain purchasing power. I do not see S&G as an investment but as hedge against financial turmoil. I also like the portability. I am just picking up some here and there. As I mentioned gold is over inflated though it has fallen recently. I don't plan on ever selling it - at least I hope not. I hate to say it - but if I leave it to my daughter - well lets just say I gave it to her over time... I hate the death tax.

fnfredux
12-06-2008, 12:10 PM
hey bones, see this is why you need some old coots around, wage and price freezes (wages first and then they froze prices 6 months later, pretty fair huh?). And INFLATION. And the Hunt brothers buying all the silver in the world

"Beginning in the early 1970s, Hunt and his brother William Herbert Hunt began accumulating large amounts of silver. By 1979, they had nearly cornered the global market.[6] In the last nine months of 1979, the brothers earned an estimated $2 billion to $4 billion in silver speculation, with estimated silver holdings of 100 million ounces.[7]
During the Hunt brothers' accumulation of the precious metal, prices of silver futures contracts and silver bullion during 1979 and 1980 silver prices rose from $11 an ounce in September 1979 to $50 an ounce in January 1980. Silver prices ultimately collapsed to below $11 an ounce two months later.[1]
In 1989 in a settlement with the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Nelson Bunker Hunt was fined US$10 million and banned from trading in the commodity markets as a result of charges stemming from his attempt to corner the market in silver, leading to a commodity crash known as Silver Thursday.[1] This was in addition to a multimillion-dollar settlement to pay back taxes, fines and interest to the Internal Revenue Service for the same period.[1]
Hunt filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the Federal Bankruptcy Code in September 1988, largely due to lawsuits incurred as a result of his silver speculation.[1]"wikipedia

gump
12-06-2008, 08:36 PM
I think we will see a massive surge in inflation once we dig out a bit from our currrent mess. I can't how we can avoid given the amount of money that has been pumped into our system.

Resources could benefit and have in some inflationary cycles but no guarantees. I think I would look at TIPS at these levels with some guaranteed rates of >3%.

I also own tobacco stocks as I think they have the ability to pay nice dividends & increase prices altough maybe not at the same rate of inflation.