TEOTWAWKI Canaries

[randallhilton]

I'm trying to figure out what sorts of "canaries in the mine shaft" we can use to help determine when to pack up the BOV and head to the BOL. Obviously, a weather disaster or other "big event" is easy to spot. But what about something more gradual?

For instance: As the dollar continues to deteriorate, at what point do we begin to expect hyper inflation to kick in. What would be a heads up that the food chain is about to suffer a broken link? Will there be signs, or a combination of signs which can forewarn us of the system falling apart?

I'm noodling some ideas to share and I hope y'all will too.

Thanks!

rh

[mozarkian]

Have often wondered the same thing, but we probably are going to weather the storm in place or very close by, and the guns are always loaded here anyway. In a way, I think we have already hit the fan and it will continue be a slow demise, not a big bang.

[midmo]

I think we're knee-deep in dead canaries right now, but most of society is just kicking 'em aside and saying "huh, wonder what that's all about" and moving on. The .gov is supporting that by telling us "don't look at the canaries, they don't feel well but they'll get better."

Many who truly recognize what dire straits we're in have already "bugged out". Although I started out pursuing self-reliance because I just generally dislike being dependent upon others for my and my family's well-being, for the last several years our lifestyle has taken on more of an urgency, almost completely due to the political and economic environment crashing.

[Grouchy-Hermit]

I think that the canaries will be difficult to spot because they are being obscured by the skunks in Washington and the liberal media. This country is going down and there's no stopping it. Bug out now.

[grumble]

Remember last year when California ran out of money and couldn't issue food stamps? That was a dead canary. Bank of America replaced the canary when they chose to accept the State's IOUs at face value. If the next time it happens, BoA doesn't accept the IOUs, what do you think will happen?

Whatever results, it would be a good time to huddle in a cave over a campfire outside LA City limits.

Food stamps, Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, government retirement programs -- these are all S-people in search of a social unrest fan.

[patience]

For the "big picture" I've been watching oil prices and the cost of living, as I find it in the local markets. Many things affect those prices, but notably oil prices. There is a delay of course, before oil prices hit the gas stations, grocery stores and hardware stores, and it is never exactly correlated for many reasons, but the effect is there. Anything that affects oil prices is serious business.

Inflation must be factored into the mix, a very inexact science now, but Shadowstats is probably as good as it gets for a source on that now. Money supply, as the Austrian economists' definition of inflation, is very important to watch, but the effect of an increase in the money supply is not a reliable indicator of just WHEN it will cause price increases, IF it does in the near term. Prices can fall in the near term for other reasons before they ultimately rise due to an increase in the money supply, but rise they will, eventually. I prefer to let the experts handle this one, and follow Marc Faber for the longer term trends.

The bottom line for me is my purchasing power, and I have seen that falling dramatically over the past 5 years. My ultimate canary is how close I am to pinching poverty, and it ain't that far off. :( How other folks are similiarly affected depends on their circumstances, but with the vast number of people on food stamps, the big picture is not good.

Here's an analysis by the Pimco Bond Fund, on what an oil disruption from Iran could cause: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/pimcos-4-iran-invasion-oil-price-scenarios-140-doomsday

And here is a video on the impact of more expensive oil: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5wSHSvIMro&feature=player_embedded It gives some idea of the present situation.

We all saw what happened when gasoline prices went above 5 bucks for a short time. I will leave the debates alone about Peak Oil and all that. All I am interested in presenting here is the effect of higher prices, which I think most folks understand are likely. PRICE is the bottom line, for whatever reasons behind it. The impact of higher fuel costs are awesome, and as I understand it, the only true replacement for CHEAP oil is EXPENSIVE oil.

That is not to deny that we as individuals, or even as a nation, could do many things to mitigate more expensive energy. But the likelihood is small that those things will be done in time to prevent havoc. Energy supports our national lifestyle.

[mozarkian]

Somewhere I read recently that something like 49% of all Americans were now receiving food stamps. Then when you figure in disableds, and seniors living month to month, etc, you are looking at probably something like 75% of our population that probably do not have enough food stored to last 30 days once the checks stop coming, and the ones in the heavily populated areas will have no way to survive this. I don't think we can even imagine just how bad this will be. My very conservative dad lived through the depression and served in the Pacific in WW2, he saw hunger there and hunger here and to his dying day he said that when the government controls the food supply its game over. We, as a country, have been bought and paid for with the social programs that have drawn so many into their web. It is going to be bad...

[randallhilton]

I agree with the idea of canary carcasses piling up.

Tell tales are already happening and perhaps TS has HTF more in some places (Detroit for example) than others.

Other things I'm watching for:
* If the "Occupy" movement leads to a broader, general riot in metro areas
* If area municipalities begin laying off double digit percentages of employees.
* Wide spread pension fund failures
* Cities curtailing emergency services
* Cities and states curtailing welfare, housing assistance, food stamps etc. in a broad way.
* Food stores begin showing extra shelf space. (I'm told that a Wal-Mart grocery section would begin looking mighty lean if it went 6 hours without stocking.)

The more I think about it, the more I think . . .. . BRB -- I need to go shopping! :shout:

[patience]

YEAH! Me too! No matter if we just came home from the grocery, it seems like thee is something I forgot.

Then, there is the slap-in-the-face effect of reading some of this stuff, then looking in our pantry and thinking "that's not NEARLY enough!" I am just SURE that if TSHTF tomorrow, it wouldn't take till lunchtime to figure out a dozen or more things that I have forgotten. :(

[Dame]

What I am noticing is the incremental march of intrusive regulations, and the incremental creep of additional, usually hidden taxes to support them. And the incremental attitudinal drift towards assumption of criminality until proven not guilty (euphemistically called transparency). And the incremental withdrawal of critical goods and services without notice until I go to replenish my supplies. And the erosion of any real upholding rather than enforcement of law.

[MichaelK]

It's a slow creep downwards, with lots of very little, barely noticable changes that are an indication of decay. For example, there was a report a few months ago how the power companies were loosening their control of 60 hz current slightly. Not the kind of thing that almost anybody would pay attention to, but they're doing this to reduce costs and prevent blackouts.

Well, they wouldn't have to decrease the quality of our electrical power if there wasn't something else wrong, but as long as the lights stay on and the TV is running, nobody notices.

There will be more things like this, but that's not what will bring about the tipping point. It will NOT be when essential services have been degraded, it is when essential services STOP. I can give you examples of when I think we've reached that point.

Related to the item above, when there are no longer any cheap tricks the power companies can implement, and they have to shut power down.

When critical fuel supplies are cut and gas stations close because they have no fuel to sell.

When grocery stores cannot fill their shelves and the managers can not tell you when they'll get a certain product in.

You can't pay your bills because your bank has closed or has frozen your accounts.

When you can't get to work because local roads are blocked by protesters.

Watch for things that break your normal routine. Once those things happen we are very close to the SHTF.

What can you do now? Don't let your gas tank get less than half full. Store enough extra gas to get out of town and get where you think you'll be safe. Store enough extra food to cover what you won't buy at the stores. Keep enough cash on hand to cover short-term purchases. Know alterative routes in and out of your area to get around congestion caused by crazy people. Lastly, have a way to defend yourself if you have to call 911 and nobody answers.

[Mom5farmboys]

Somewhere I read recently that something like 49% of all Americans were now receiving food stamps. Then when you figure in disableds, and seniors living month to month, etc, you are looking at probably something like 75% of our population that probably do not have enough food stored to last 30 days once the checks stop coming, and the ones in the heavily populated areas will have no way to survive this. I don't think we can even imagine just how bad this will be. My very conservative dad lived through the depression and served in the Pacific in WW2, he saw hunger there and hunger here and to his dying day he said that when the government controls the food supply its game over. We, as a country, have been bought and paid for with the social programs that have drawn so many into their web. It is going to be bad...

You know I actually believe this could be true........my family is eligible for food stamps, we don't recieve them, nor have we applied but we could get them if we wanted to.

We are not rich, but aren't poor either. We live modestly within our means, and are debt free, but on paper we fit the guidelines for government assistence. We have worked hard for what we have, sometimes it just really rubs me the wrong way to think that people take whats free because its easier.

Yep if we're eligible, I'll bet that more than 49% of other Americans are too, and they probobly think its just easier to take the freebies.

[randallhilton]

The mess in the EU is one really big canary and it looks like it's turning blue in the face. It seems to me that if the euro goes down then we lose. If we bail it out, we lose, only it will be a little farther down the line before the hyperinflation hits.

If you need me, I'll be down at the Wal-Mart. :fie:

[Wyobuckaroo]

To kind of condense the posts so far.......
I see it as when the idiots that are making bad headlines now, start getting closer and closer to your address will determine when it is time to do something in your area.

Different parts of the country will experience this at different rates.
Does this make sense ?
Good luck

[patience]

Wyobuckaroo,

Yup, sure does make sense.

Actually, each time I hear more ill news, I do a little more to be ready for whatever I can think of that might impact us. If I hear of civil disturbance in a major city anywhere close, I will be ready to batten down the hatches. I want to be at least a little bit ahead of the curve.

[Michael32170]

The best indicators is what the rich and powerful are doing. If they all seem to leave the country at the same time, then I'd be a little cautious. If it's going to be a limited event (not 100% nuclear war) then see there they are planning to come back to...........were the food is.


http://www.tedturner.com/returner/turner_ranch_map_web.jpg

as an exmple

[randallhilton]

Another canary bites the dust. An inevitable request for another trillion (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/12/obama-requests-12t-increase-in-debt-ceiling/?test=latestnews) or so in monopoly money does not bode well for our future.

[S2man]

Thanks for bumping this thread, Randal. You reminded me of a list of canaries posted by a member at tfmetalsreport.com.



Looting of federal pension funds to make ends meet
The Food Safety Modernization Act (Jan. 2011) gave the FDA and Homeland Security complete control over all food production, handling, and distribution, even your backyard garden.
China ramps gold purchases: In July through Sept of 2010, China bought about 10 tons of gold. In the same period for 2011, they bought 140 tons. By comparison, total gold imports in 2010 were only 120 tons. China is involved in panicked buying.
Open bickering about backing sovereign bailouts with gold reserves undermines the “gold is just tradition” game. Until recently, it was unthinkable to undermine the party line so openly.
Frequent rules changes, such as mark to market, which of course, mask the fact that there are no rules when governments are desperate.
Previously reluctant ratings agency trying to salvage their reputations because they know what’s coming.
Punishing ratings agencies and their execs for downgrading AAA ratings.
ECB and Fed reaching 75% gold reserves on the asset side of their balance sheets
Countries like Venezuela repatriating their gold
Bank runs in the EU and at BoA, but no media coverage
Open protests regarding economic conditions all over the world
Intervention in former safehaven currencies like the Swiss
Zero interest rates forever
Political leaders, finance ministers, and bankers retire to spend more time with their families, others allegedly attack maids who later turn out to be prostitutes.
Forceably replacing elected officials with bankers called “technocrats.”
Markets driven by rumors spread by political leaders who have run out of options.
Gold spikes down result in gold vendor sites experiencing technical difficulaties
Premiums on physical gold and silver rise.
China’s economy hits a brick wall
Defaults are not defaults, just a voluntary 50% haircut
Hypothecation saves the COMEX, thereby robbing clients and ruining the Comex.
Banks putting caps on how much money you can withdraw. (France, BoA)
Libyan oil trade in gold precipitates an invasion, and their gold disappears.
China agrees with Russia and Japan to do business without the US dollar
Elevation of the National Guard Bureau Chief to the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Indefinite detention of American Citizens without trial is quietly legalized.
SOPA to shut down troublemaker web sites
The emergency broadcast system is beefed up so it can be used to shut down access to information.
War drums with Iran and Syria.
The Chief Economist of the IMF gives a year end speech basically saying everything has to go perfectly for 20 years or it’s all over, which he says is unthinkable. He never mentions devaluation, not once.

[patience]

Paints quite a picture, doesn't it? From all that, I would conclude that the money game is up:

-US dollar is only backed by "reserve status", which is steadily being chipped away--but they fight this with military actions.
-Banks are all bankrupt.
-Sovereigns are all bankrupt.
-Pulling out all the stops to hide that fiat currencies are all worthless.
-Sovereigns all seek gold as a refuge.
-Can kicking is the only means left to deal with failed economies.

Reminds me of the cartoon with the bearded guy in robe and sandals, carrying the sign: "The End is Near!" Not to worry. TPTB always start a war to cope with such things by robbing some other nation. Looks like it'll take a doozy this time around. Who ya gonna rob THIS time? They are all broke....

[patience]

Maybe the most telling canary for me was my brother in law asking what the heck should he do with his savings now?

This guy has been very successful financially, has had the benefit of the best investment advisors from the insurance company he works for, yet now he asks ME what to do to preserve the savings he worked a lifetime to get? I've known the man since 1963, so he knows I am not a financial wizard. I am an engineer, machinist, ex-farmer, ex-welding shop owner, and now a retired guy who does some gardening--not the resume' of an investment advisor. He knows we are into self reliance, canning, wood heat, and all that.

He has begun to see the light, and all on his own. I told him to watch the "Crash Course" videos by Chris Martenson, and to read Zerohedge. Then, I told him to spend money on his own future needs, food, tires, paint for the house, or whatever else he KNOWS he will need in the future. (That was based on the old book, "The Alpha Strategy", hedging against inflation.) He asked about gold? I told him the numbers on the silver I bought at $13, and could now sell with spot around $30. I paid $5800 for $500 face value of junk coins, and could sell them back to the same place now for about $10,000. BUT, the $4200 "gain" is taxable at 28%, so I would net about $8800 from the sale = about a 52% profit over 3 years. He was impressed with that profit.

Then I told him that at the same time I bought a supply of instant coffee at $4/jar. That jar now costs $8, so I made 100% profit on that investment. Who is ahead now, the PM investor, or the prepper?

I only had about 10 minutes to talk with him at a family visit. I hope it works for him. He has been a sheeple all his life, but the sheeple ways aren't working for him now. They are waking up.

[Terri]

When the rich bug out to Canada, then I will worry.

Also, I will be looking sharp after the next election, because folks wanting to win reelection will try to keep things stable until then.

[recoilless_57mm]

Patience: You have marketable skills in the up and coming economy. Like you I am retired from a small business. If you leave out the farmer part you and I have much the same skill set. I see these as valuable. A down to earth understanding of the individual and his or her needs. I have a small machine shop just to keep my skills from turning to mush. I do odd jobs for folks to this day. I enjoy gardening and all that goes with it thanks to my depression mother. My children and grandchildren think I am a bit over the top with all that I am doing as a prepper. No matter, I continue to invest in the grass roots future. Those that don't will have a very hard lesson ahead, this includes those close to me. God willing I will continue to help those that want to help themselves. I don't care who they are or what they did. I have learned to embrase the struggle. When the struggle stops, I am most likely dead. Charlie

[randallhilton]

Today at Wal-Mart they announced that their credit/debit card processor was down. The debit card system out our local Thrift Town was also down. I don't think it means anything at the moment, it's just a coincidence, but I can imagine that electronic transactions would be stopped immediately if something signaled the bankers that the wheels were coming off the economy.

[S2man]

patience, I just get looks like a cow staring at a new gate, or like I'm wearing a tin foil hat when I bring up our financial and monetary morass. So I've given up trying to educate folks. The only person I know who knows what is going on is my BIL. He is lead counsel and VP of an insurance company. But, to my knowledge, he is doing nothing to prepare for a financial collapse. I guess he figures his money will get him through it, some how.

randall, there will likely be bank holidays if/when the financial system collapses, which would stop all bank transactions, including electronic. Good idea to keep some cash on hand for whatever causes ATMs and debit cards to cease working. That alone will feel like TEOTWAWKI to most sheeple.

More canaries: The Canadians have found another client-money-comingler, like MF Global. And Bank of America has moved their trillions of $ of derivatives from their poorly rated investment bank over to their commercial bank, which puts customer deposits as a backstop for the lousy paper. I don't have the links, but the stories can be found by searching ZeroHedge.

[patience]

S2man,

I used to get those dumb looks, too from this BIL, and still do from all the rest of the family. The canary was when HE brought it up! This guy has scads of money compared to me. He and his wife are taking annual trips to Europe, last summer they went to Russia and this year they are going on a 7 country tour of Europe again. Just bought a really BIG house. (Was listed at around $750K, and he got it for about half that.) Dumb move on his part, and he knows that now, but his wife wanted it--she is a dyed-in-the-wool sheeple.

Now, he is watching real estate go further down the tubes and his big home value along with it. Lives in a county with a lot of very wealthy people, who advised him to buy that big house! SO... He asks ME, the poor relation, what to do to hang onto his money!

That move I saw as a canary.

The rest of the family is still in denial. One sis in law just bought a new house that is 5X bigger than she needs (she's divorced and single) and is busy decorating it. Has no personal life otherwise. The house needs everything fixed before long--a long deck on the back that is 2 stories high and is showing some soft boards, needs paint here and there, starting to have plumbing problems, etc.. Just what a single girl needs, who hasn't a clue how to do that stuff. She is probably a good contrarian indicator--if SHE does something, it is wrong.

Canary #2
Less donated stock in the Goodwill stores. One BIL is involved with the management of Goodwill, and says they are having to BUY stock, for lack of donations. So, we see a lot of cheap Chinese coffee mugs and Xmas decorations there, but not so many real bargains. I had thought of this one, as something to watch for and now it is reality.

Canary #3

Overworked food banks. Every charity food source around here is maxxed out giving, and seeking donations to support them.

Canary #4

Less junk mail. When advertising starts to dwindle, that means that retail does not get more sales from it, OR, they simply can't afford it.

Canary #5 Baltic Dry Index is falling again. This is bulk shipping. Not so much international trade now, as happened in 2008.

[Paddy]

This thread is surprisingly sensible. Randall's threads often are, though, so I should not be that surprised. I came across this lovely bit of sadness during morning coffee time, and it made me think of the discussion thread here.

http://news.yahoo.com/treasury-dips-pension-funds-avoid-debt-limit-202850021.html

Opening bit:
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Treasury on Tuesday started dipping into federal pension funds in order to give the Obama administration more credit to pay government bills."

[Pitdog]

Well- here is one from me that made me sit up and really take notice. My job requires me to travel all over the country and work with LE folks. Every single place I have been, north, south, east, west- city/country- doesn't matter. On a personal and professional level 3 or more guys from a class will talk to me about their preparation for disaster. Usually it's afterwards, they come ask me questions pertaining to my work that relate specifically to how they can better prepare with regards to their training I provide. It always has started on a department level of- 'this department has contingencies in place for widespread this or that emergency.' Then it gets them to thinking of their perosnal life and suddenly they are uber involved, some of them already were, some of them are just starting to see the writing on the wall.
The point being is this- it's not just an internet fad, it's not a tv show, it's not a book or acquaintances. It's not geographic, it's not based on race, religion, city/country it's EVERYWHERE and real. (The thoughts and feelings)
So indeed, look at preparations from the perspective that 'it could happen tomorrow- what if?'

[Michael32170]

When the rich bug out to Canada, then I will worry.

Also, I will be looking sharp after the next election, because folks wanting to win reelection will try to keep things stable until then.

Are you kidding me? Ted Turner has already moved to China. Jimmy Rogers has move to Indonesia.

Ted has accumulated lots of land (that you and I are paying him to operate) and stocking it full of buffalo and other etable animals. He is planning to come back as a land barron after you and I have killed each other.

Do an internet search, I bet you will find more rich people are already relocating. Remember, they can't move in one day, one week, or one month. For them it's a multi month (or multi year) process. A large chuck of them already have off shore homes and bank accounts. Opra is an excellent example.

What the rich are doing would make a very interesting thread on this site. It would be very educational and an excellent early warning tool.

I perk up and watch the world every time Obama goes on vacation outside the US. You can rest assured, he won't be here if things are going to get nasty.

[recoilless_57mm]

PitDog; I shall add to what you have run into. I have interaction with active and inactive military folks. I am told that they were and are constantly being polled in reguard to being deployed in this country. This is third party information at this point. It is offered for what it might be worth. For me I am seeing more and more signs of a boat load of crap coming our way.

[patience]

Quote:
"... they were and are constantly being polled in reguard to being deployed in this country."

THAT is very bad news.

[randallhilton]

Quote:
"... they were and are constantly being polled in reguard to being deployed in this country."

THAT is very bad news.

This is an interesting spin off. For quite a while I dismissed a standing army turning against the people (as if I were more wise than many of our founders who argued against a standing army!). I figured that everybody in the army has a family member out here. We know that blood is thicker than water. Right?

Then I began to realize that our nanny state has taken over the role of patriarch and provider for a good number of our military enlistees. That would twist their loyalties a bit: "Hmmmm. . . do I fight for the entity that's feeding me or do I fight for some principle that I never learned about in government school." How do you expect that choice to come out?

I want to know more about these surveys but on the surface, they seem to fly like a canary. Hmmmmm

[Pitdog]

Yes Recoilless, they are polled and asked, and questioned, and evaluated- in an effort to gauge what percentage of them will be useful to the powers that be.
I think LE and FLE are going to be more relied upon than actual military though, as well as private contractors........... aka 'executive security.'

It's all a crap shoot, just be ready to keep your head down and have a plan. Then a backup plan. And another backup plan. It's too uncertain not to really be paying attention right now.

[recoilless_57mm]

PitDog: I have heard they are looking for the magic number of 20%. What I don't know is 20% of what larger number or groups. From my experiences I have a fair amount of faith in the boots on the ground. After that it is a crap shoot for me. As we all know there will be a following. What ever number they are looking for will most likely be achieved. It turns out to be a simple distillation process.

Your advice for having is a multi tier plan is good. I hope people follow it. I hate to say it but, blood is not alway reliable. It boils down to your love of God, integrity, committment & your love of mankind. Abstract concepts to most of the population. I feel you have to evaluate individuals based on themselves.

Charlie

[S2man]

"Ted Turner has already moved to China. Jimmy Rogers has move to Indonesia."

I read a lot of financial/economic/investment newsletters and blogs. A LOT of those guys have already left the country, too. One is setting up a self-sufficient community in Chile, but Asia seems to be their favorite area.

[J R Adams]

This is an interesting spin off. For quite a while I dismissed a standing army turning against the people (as if I were more wise than many of our founders who argued against a standing army!). I figured that everybody in the army has a family member out here. We know that blood is thicker than water. Right?

Then I began to realize that our nanny state has taken over the role of patriarch and provider for a good number of our military enlistees. That would twist their loyalties a bit: "Hmmmm. . . do I fight for the entity that's feeding me or do I fight for some principle that I never learned about in government school." How do you expect that choice to come out?

I want to know more about these surveys but on the surface, they seem to fly like a canary. Hmmmmm

Yes, the spin off is getting interesting. Remember the good old days of the "DRAFT" that we all hated that produced "citizen" soldiers that couldn't wait to get out and continue their lives?

Does this all Volunteer military we have now equate or develop into an mercenary force. Is the definition "Mercenary" changing or about to change?

At some point Janet Napalitano implied our veterans could equate to "home grown terrorists" or something to that effect. Is a person who opposes the poliies of the administration in power a terrorist.

You sort of opened the back door Randal. Where should we go from here?

[offgridbob]

Don't look for signs because the government will try and hide a disaster right up until in happens. Do your preparing now because if nothing happens, you have lost nothing. If something happens your prepared. The house is gearing up to take back the house and if that happens even if Obama looses the next president will be a lame duck. If nothing changes in our government for the better, let that be your canary.

[Pitdog]

If you have not already- get the book 'Emergency' and read it. Fantastic and different look at prepping and makes a lot of the discussions above look reasonable from the view of someone with money. i.e. the ability and financial means to try and get citizenship in a different country, and why they might want to.

[Michael32170]

If you have not already- get the book 'Emergency' and read it. Fantastic and different look at prepping and makes a lot of the discussions above look reasonable from the view of someone with money. i.e. the ability and financial means to try and get citizenship in a different country, and why they might want to.

I'll have to get that book. An interesting movie is "The Day After". With Jason Robards. This movie somewhat parallels the events in the middle east, today.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51KERAT92CL._SL500_SS75_.jpg

I liked the movie because it happens at my home town. But, the buildup in the middle east that goes out of control makes this movie an interesting video for today's events.



Assad may start regional war if UN tells him to step down – Gulf sources
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 31, 2012, 7:23 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Bashar Assad UN Security Council US Russia Israel Syrian officers visit Russian aircraft carrier in Tartus portIn confidential conversations with his advisers, Syrian President Bashar Assad is reported by Persian Gulf sources Tuesday, Jan. 31 to have threatened to start up armed hostilities in the region if the UN Security Council Tuesday night endorses the Arab League proposal for him to step down and hand power to his deputy.

Those sources told debkafile that the heads of the Syrian armed forces and intelligence have been given their orders and some units are on the ready. Other Middle East sources reported that the Lebanese Hizballah has also shown signs of military preparations in the last few hours. And the Russian flotilla berthed at the Syrian port of Tartus, led by the Admiral Kutznetsov aircraft carrier, also appears to be on the alert for ructions in the wake of the Security Council Syria session.

During the day, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov warned that pushing the Arab League's UN resolution was "the path to civil war." Our Moscow sources report that top-level discussions are still going back and forth in the Kremlin over a final decision on a veto.
debkafile reports that the military flurry in advance of the critical Security Council session included US naval movements. Sunday, Jan. 29, the nuclear submarine USS Annapolis, escorted by the guided missile destroyer USS Momsen sailed through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea. This looked like a Washington warning for Tehran to keep its military fingers out of Syria if the confrontation there escalates.

It was not the first time Assad has threatened Syria's neighbors. On Aug. 9, 2011, four months into his savage crackdown against protesters, he warned Turkey that, six hours after the first shot was fired against Syria, he would "destroy Tel Aviv and set the entire Middle East on fire."

That was his answer to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu when he came to Damascus with a demand from his and other NATO governments that the Syrian ruler stop the slaughter. .

Davutoglu urged Assad to take a look at Libya and try to understand that if he carried on, he might be in for the same fate as Muammar Qaddafi – a strong hint at military intervention by NATO, including Turkey.
Earlier still on May 10, one of Assad's close kinsmen, the international tycoon Rami Makhlouf, warned: "If there is no stability in Syria, there will be none in Israel. No one can be sure what will happens after that. God help us if anything befalls this regime."

[randallhilton]

I wonder if this is a canary (http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-house-advances-doomsday-bill/article_af6e1b2b-0ca4-553f-85e9-92c0f58c00bd.html) we should be taking notice of? Personally, I think it's an excellent step in the right direction.

Excerpt:
"The task force would look at the feasibility of Wyoming issuing its own alternative currency, if needed. And House members approved an amendment Friday by state Rep. Kermit Brown, R-Laramie, to have the task force also examine conditions under which Wyoming would need to implement its own military draft, raise a standing army, and acquire strike aircraft and an aircraft carrier."

[krapgame]

I wonder if this is a canary (http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-house-advances-doomsday-bill/article_af6e1b2b-0ca4-553f-85e9-92c0f58c00bd.html) we should be taking notice of? Personally, I think it's an excellent step in the right direction.

Excerpt:
"The task force would look at the feasibility of Wyoming issuing its own alternative currency, if needed. And House members approved an amendment Friday by state Rep. Kermit Brown, R-Laramie, to have the task force also examine conditions under which Wyoming would need to implement its own military draft, raise a standing army, and acquire strike aircraft and an aircraft carrier."

I'm glad you posted this already. I just ran across it myself and was looking to see if someone had already posted. It's something definitely worth taking note of.

A related anecdote I don't believe I've posted before, 2 years ago a state rep here unexpectedly announced that he wouldn't run for re-election. The inside story, related to me by a business associate that I have come to trust as a pretty reliable source (level headed, generally well reasoned, not given to propagate rumors as fact, etc) and who was also a schoolmate of this rep and still has a personal and professional relationship with him, is that he basically got out because of very similar concerns. I'm not really comfortable giving a whole lot of details, but I will say that this is someone from an old money family and that his political position was very secure had he wanted to stay and likely could have risen as high as he wanted to in state politics had he chosen to stay involved. That's about as specific as I'm comfortable getting, but I will add that my information is that he took his inside information and started acting on it.

IIRC, about the same time this happened, our state talked briefly about an alternative gold and silver based currency. I don't remember if that got any legs or not.

[tomato204]

Wyoming is a little short on seaports.

[navy87guy]

It's kind of like the old "boiled alive" scenario. While you're in the pot and the water is heating up, it happens so slowly that you don't even notice it -- until it's too late and your proverbial goose is cooked!

Anybody feel it getting a little warm in here??

[randallhilton]

It's kind of like the old "boiled alive" scenario. While you're in the pot and the water is heating up, it happens so slowly that you don't even notice it -- until it's too late and your proverbial goose is cooked!

Anybody feel it getting a little warm in here??

It's my understanding that the boiling frog metaphor has a very disturbing twist. In the original experiment, by Friedrich Goltz, he had removed the brain of the frog.

In other words, as things heat up, the brainless do nothing. :shout:

[krapgame]

Wyoming is a little short on seaports.

Maybe they fear a sneak attack from the Nebraska Navy. I understand they've been appointing Admirals for some time. ;)

[navy87guy]

It's my understanding that the boiling frog metaphor has a very disturbing twist. In the original experiment, by Friedrich Goltz, he had removed the brain of the frog.

In other words, as things heat up, the brainless do nothing. :shout:

Well, that's about 98% of the population, right? ;)

Seriously, I think the challenge will be deciding when individual indicators have achieved enough critical mass to trigger the meltdown. If there's a single, cataclysmic event (like an EMP, solar flare, volcanic eruption, etc.) then it's easy. If we're talking about the dissolution of society and the fall of the national government, then it will be more difficult. I think most people will cling to the hope that everything will go "back to normal" so long, that when the crash does come it will be sudden and catastrophic.

Every day I realize just how ill-prepared I am for that end...except for the determination to survive. I still don't have enough of the skills or supplies - but I'm working on it!

[grumble]

Maybe they fear a sneak attack from the Nebraska Navy. I understand they've been appointing Admirals for some time.

Don't be silly. Nobody cares about the Omaha Admirals. The concern is that fleet of submarines hidden inside Pike's Peak, CO.

[whitehairedidiot]

Well, that's about 98% of the population, right? ;)

Seriously, I think the challenge will be deciding when individual indicators have achieved enough critical mass to trigger the meltdown. If there's a single, cataclysmic event (like an EMP, solar flare, volcanic eruption, etc.) then it's easy. If we're talking about the dissolution of society and the fall of the national government, then it will be more difficult. I think most people will cling to the hope that everything will go "back to normal" so long, that when the crash does come it will be sudden and catastrophic.

Every day I realize just how ill-prepared I am for that end...except for the determination to survive. I still don't have enough of the skills or supplies - but I'm working on it!

I tend to agree with you, about the social meltdown. What I'm wondering is how does it look to you all now - 3 months later?

Sometimes I think - oh, this is just a really rough spell; a temporary insanity phase - and it will all settle down back into more predictable patterns. Other times, I'm less sure about that - since my intuition, going back to the early 80s started firing up my imagination about SHTF scenarios. I started writing short stories about these (lost in various moves...). Just five-seven years ago, my daughter & I had a conversation about "wild west scenarios"... every man for himself mentality...

I wouldn't call these "feelings" ESP... more an ability to observe what's going on, and the mental rigor to overcome my innate emotional dislike/fear/denial of what I'm seeing. Things feel shakier now, to me -- than they did in 2008. Maybe because I figured we could survive without Wall St; that it could completely collapse and the world wouldn't end (in fact, the financial system would probably be reincarnated...). What's nagging at me, to pay attention to it, is more like an essential aspect of society that's fading away...

... and I haven't quite decided what to call it. What it is.

[Michael32170]

I tend to agree with you, about the social meltdown. What I'm wondering is how does it look to you all now - 3 months later?

Sometimes I think - oh, this is just a really rough spell; a temporary insanity phase - and it will all settle down back into more predictable patterns. Other times, I'm less sure about that - since my intuition, going back to the early 80s started firing up my imagination about SHTF scenarios. I started writing short stories about these (lost in various moves...). Just five-seven years ago, my daughter & I had a conversation about "wild west scenarios"... every man for himself mentality...

I wouldn't call these "feelings" ESP... more an ability to observe what's going on, and the mental rigor to overcome my innate emotional dislike/fear/denial of what I'm seeing. Things feel shakier now, to me -- than they did in 2008. Maybe because I figured we could survive without Wall St; that it could completely collapse and the world wouldn't end (in fact, the financial system would probably be reincarnated...). What's nagging at me, to pay attention to it, is more like an essential aspect of society that's fading away...

... and I haven't quite decided what to call it. What it is.


While you can't count on everything working exactly the same, here is a personal experience that might help 5 indicators (http://shtfschool.com/security/the-5-first-symptoms-of-shtf/)

[whitehairedidiot]

Nah... what I'm talking about is way more subtle than that! Which is why I don't know what to call it or exactly what it is.

[grumble]

I know the feeling you speak of, WHI. And I don't know the name of it, either. A general feeling of uneasiness, that something is about to come apart in my comfortable world.

FWIW, we aren't the first ones to have it, whatever "it" is. In ancient times, they waited for the coming of the Messiah, and they thought it would be brought about by earth-shattering events. For those that lived in old Babylon, by golly, they were right! The Romans just knew, as a matter of common knowledge, that the world would end in the year 1000. For those who felt it in some small village in Eastern Europe in the 1600s, it happened when the Black Plague came along. Or German Jews in the early 1930s. And some poor Japanese family in Hiroshima in 1945.

And then there are the people who followed some well-spoken prophet into a cave for a couple weeks, expecting to come out and rebuild society. Or those who committed suicide because they wanted a ride on a passing comet to a better world in a distant galaxy.

I think the feeling must be a hard-wired thing in the human psyche. Trouble is, the feeling of impending doom is probably wrong more often than it's right. But then, there's always the "stopped clock" theory, meaning that SOME DAY it will be right.

I don't know what the word is, but I bet some dark, deep-thinking German philosopher coined a term to fit. Germans have a word for EVERYTHING! <G>

[anna]

The end of the world and the end of the world as we know it are kind of different events. The end of the world as we know it will undoubtedly feel a lot like the end of everything but its not. Its a major change for the worse that has to be survived to find out what comes next.

[offgridbob]

Another indicator is the run on the banks in Greece. The way everything is interconnected when one falls they all fall. They way I see it we don't have to worry about the end, we just need the right connection to get us through it if you believe in post trib. If you believe in pre-trib then that's even better if your connection is solid.

[patience]

The global interconnectness is so complex now, that the critical event could come from anywhere, but Greece and the PIIGs are very likely candidates. This quote is from Silverbear Cafe in a commentary on a book called The Fourth Turning, which discusses the cyclical nature of history, and plots our present position in the cycle:

Quote:
"The Minsky Moment headed our way will not be a single uncorrelated event. The entire financial world is hopelessly entangled by the $700 trillion of derivatives that ensure mass destruction if one of the dominoes falls. This is the reason an otherwise inconsequential country like Greece had to be “saved”.
Everyone knows Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are broke. One or more will eventually default on their debt. It is highly likely that a butterfly will flap its wings in Europe and cause a hurricane in the U.S. The default will spark a worldwide contagion as trust in a system of false promises disintegrates. China’s already crumbling real estate market will implode. As interest rates soar and stock markets plunge, global tensions will intensify. Continued oil supply constraints will be the cherry on top. Based on historical precedent, this is likely to strike before 2014 arrives. The wealth destruction and pain will be so intense a regeneracy will be at hand. Our very survival will feel at stake.
“Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” - Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning (http://www.amazon.com/dp/0767900464?tag=thebur01-20&camp=0&creative=0&linkCode=as1&creativeASIN=0767900464&adid=0VTFPQQFCAV7FYWEMDZT&)

LINK: http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.12/nothingthree.html

[whitehairedidiot]

Bob - what's "pre/post-trib"?

Grumble - I'm a little closer to describing what it is. On the interpersonal level, it's as if people have retreated within their own little personal bubble of existence - and other people outside their bubble simply do not exist. At least as people, with their own to-do lists, feelings, lines of movement,beliefs etc. They don't speak TO other people, they speak AT them. Like other people are rocks, and those rocks are in the way. I have literally been run over by people with carts in the store -- as if I were completely invisible -- so intent are they on "getting to the eggs" right this moment. I'm not that short, and definitely not that thin anymore! LOL... they are usually looking right at me, and vice versa. I know they saw me; that it registered on their brain - but they feel entitled to bulldoze their way right over me, anyway. Some poor person is going to get more than they bargained for someday, when I'm just a little too frazzled myself. My hubby has been trying to teach me to keep my mouth shut when this happens, and has no answer for my question why I must always be the one who "gives way". I guess it's better than assault charges (and I do have that trained, disciplined reflex)... remember Ruth Buzzy? Maybe I should carry a big purse like that.

In the culture, in society, what we grew up with as the "grease of civilization" - etiquette, being polite, cooperation with and caring for each other, taking and waiting for your turn - is disintegrating into "my rights" vs "your rights"... an every man for himself and everyone else be damned... kind of competition. Resources really aren't that scarce. Yet. So, what are people competing for? Bragging rights? Status? Points? Gold stars? Ice cream?

What kinda gives me the willies, is that the competition seems to be about control and whose way of life is "right-eous" enough to impose it on everyone else. And control is ALWAYS about fear - someone's afraid of what might happen if they don't control everything. (Fearful folks forget that it's not possible to control everything; and not being able to control everything almost NEVER results in a catastrophe for people not obsessed with control; they just adapt.) Giving up attempts to control everything means most things settle down into a normal, natural balance.

That "control" mindset is extending into "legislating morality", and apparently the decline of teaching history has gotten so bad, that the folks wasting their energy on trying to control everyone/everything never learned that this is also another impossibility and has failed every single time it's been tried.

There's no real point to this rambling, musing, pondering. It's just something that I think is a real, even if "just below our radar", daily reminder of how quickly and easily things could slide over the tipping point. And rather than worry myself silly about events in Europe, China, or even Washington - that I can't do Jack about... it's these local, daily existence things (myopic, I suppose) that seem to be the real canaries in the coal mine.

[midmo]

What I'm wondering is how does it look to you all now - 3 months later?


I personally haven't seen anything that makes me feel much better. Probably worse, in fact. It seems that even over the last three months, racial tension, political partisanism, and our government's blatant disregard for the will of the people have all ramped up considerably. Lotsa lip-service about the economy getting better, but I don't see it.

It feels like we're winding a clock.. tighter, tighter, a littllllle tighhhhttter....

[offgridbob]

Whitehairedidiot , They are biblical terms for the tribulation and the last days. It all boils down to where your faith lies. When the SHTF it is what it is and I will deal with it the best I can at the time. Prepperation and faith will get me through anything. The older I get the more I know I don't control half as much as I thought I did.

[bookwormom]

The global interconnectness is so complex now, that the critical event could come from anywhere, but Greece and the PIIGs are very likely candidates. This quote is from Silverbear Cafe in a commentary on a book called The Fourth Turning, which discusses the cyclical nature of history, and plots our present position in the cycle:



[/INDENT]

I got that book about 9 years ago.
It has been a long autumn, but winter is coming. I went voting yesterday, noticed the first ice on the water.

[red girl]

WHAT DOES TEOTWAWKI MEAN? RED GIRL

[DavidOH]

TEOTWAWKI

The End Of The World As We Know It

It never hurts to ask questions. ;)

[grumble]

"It has been a long autumn, but winter is coming."

Sounds like someone has been reading "Game of Thrones." <GGG>

Defend the wall.

[bookwormom]

"It has been a long autumn, but winter is coming."

Sounds like someone has been reading "Game of Thrones." <GGG>

Defend the wall.

Nope. Someone has read "the Fourth Turning" By Strauss and Howe. 2 professors of history.

Sorry, never heard of the Game of Thrones. You recommend it?

[grumble]

"Game of Thrones" is a series of three novels. Very entertaining, and will keep you up at night long past your bedtime. But it is pure fantasy. Huge cast of characters with well defined and fleshed out personalities.

Story line is a midevil make-believe country divided into 7 "kingdoms." Lots of good guys, bad guys, and inbetween guys. There's an ice wall to the north that holds back the primitives and some undefined supernatural forces.

If you enjoy English history, there are a lot of parallels, complete with shifting alliances, traitors, heroes, and external threats that most don't even know about.

You probably won't learn much by reading the trilogy, but it will sure keep you reading.

[J R Adams]

Whitehairedidiot , They are biblical terms for the tribulation and the last days. It all boils down to where your faith lies. When the SHTF it is what it is and I will deal with it the best I can at the time. Prepperation and faith will get me through anything. The older I get the more I know I don't control half as much as I thought I did.

Bob,
You have it half figured out. In a few more years you'll learn you don't control nothin'. You just react to what comes at you with the best you've got.

[whitehairedidiot]

Thanks Bob - I'd have to agree with you, especially this:

"The older I get the more I know I don't control half as much as I thought I did."

I like to think I can control myself and immediate surroundings - it's this silly idea I have (something about ego) - but I know for sure, that's a real illusion! Life tends to remind me of that a LOT. Just so I don't get all uppity or anything, I think.

[whitehairedidiot]

The reference to English history kinda prompts me to start thinking about what the historical "canaries" were (arguably or otherwise) in various places, say like Rome, Egypt, China... (only just started to read Chinese history)...

Greece is kinda the "once & future disaster" isn't it? Now I have to go refresh my memory on Greece's first fall from the top of the heap. The question was always there, during art history... such glorious architecture... was the society as glorious? politics? or was it just stage dressing? (But of course, my digressions were NOT appreciated by my profs... except after class.)

[grumble]

I'd guess most Greek slaves didn't think much of their society. Citizens, when they weren't conscripted into forced service, or short of necessities, probably didn't mind things too much. Senators, and leading aristocracy, who wrote most of the histories we read, thought things were bubbling along just fine. Same sort of thing for Rome. I seem to recall a guy named Sparticus (a Greek enslaved by Romans) who wasn't too happy with the social system.

Trying to pinpoint the "canaries" of that time would be sort of hard because of their beliefs. Multiple powerful gods, astrology, and special powers attributed to priests and oracles would all influence what they feared for the future.

A comet was either a good or bad omen depending on what the prophet of the day would decide. And his decision was usually a political or economic scheme twisted to an easily-duped populace to reflect some desire of the prophet.

Heh-heh, maybe there ARE some parallels after all. But I'd better not go there.

[whitehairedidiot]

Ha, Grumble! Point taken on the Greek "media" of the day - prophets & oracles... but I'm going to refresh my mind on a few things anyway. While we're on the topic of canaries - sometimes I wonder if we've already missed the warning signs and are already sliding into the yawning abyss while clinging to imaginary lines of hope (not that hope's a bad thing, mind you!)... yesterday, I started reading this article from the The Weekly Standard, and it's the first thing I've read in a while, that kinda sums up the predicament the world (not just the US) is in. See what you think... I'm probably going to re-read it and let it germinate a little. Scared the crap out of me - but if I'd been able to process all the information that's been thrown around the past few years, to excuse, distract, deflect, blame, sort of explain (from all kinds of questionable premises), and plain old BS... I think I might have come to the same conclusion about the "state of things" as this writer. Don't know about his suggestions for solutions - my eyes were shutting as I got to that point in the article.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/our-age-anxiety_645175.html

I do know I couldn't disagree with the things he said were "unaddressed issues"... and how interconnected/interdependent these issues are. I know them first hand. So the subordinate systems that keep the main economic/social system humming smoothly, each have some serious flaws in them. Is it necessary to correct the flaws in the sub-systems completely, before improvement is seen in the main one? or is momentum in that direction enough? Do either of the Presidential candidates have the mindset to see this, understand it, and lead/coordinate the effort to fix things, asap?? How long would this take? How excruciating and dangerous is it? What is the worst that could happen? How likely is that?

It was somewhat reassuring and disconcerting at the very same time, that the author stresses that America in it's totality is "unprepared" for the reality of the situation that confronts us all. Reassuring that someone in those circles NOTICED... and disconcerting because it's easy to sit and talk about it (like I'm doing right now; one of my weaknesses) while it's more important to be up and "doing" what needs to be done to get as prepared as possible and start the effort to address the dysfunctions in the system. In that respect, individuals, businesses, families that are prepping or working toward a level of self-reliance are already years ahead of the curve of "survival".

So many don't recognize yet that they're tied to train tracks and Casey Jones is bearing down on them. Maybe they're waking up. Remember that scene in Dr. Zhivago... where he comes home from the war? Only to find that his "home" no longer belongs to him? That it's now an apartment building? That has stuck with me all these years. Private property rights are perhaps more important to the traditional American "idea" and way of life, than they've been given credit for... and yet, I hear clear rumbles that somehow that's "unfair".

One more random thought: watched Josey Wales again over the weekend. This has always been my favorite Eastwood movie... but it struck me that the movie is about a past SHTF scenario. Zhivago is too. What movies strike you as being in that genre, other than Red Dawn and 2012 and that ilk??

(I'll be awol a few days...)

[patience]

WHI,

I just read the article you linked and he has his history right, but I disagree with some of the causes he cited. Example:

"In the past decade, productivity gains accounted for 80 percent of total economic growth, up from 53 percent in the 1990s and 47 percent in the 1980s, according to a recent study by McKinsey and Associates. The role of the labor force is diminishing quickly as the growth of that labor force slows. This suggests that economic growth in the coming decades will depend decisively on productivity growth."

REAL Productivity has to increase, OR, we join the rest of the world as bottom feeders. I believe the author is reading published productivity numbers that are based on GDP increase per labor hour. That is inaccurate, since the dollar is a rubber yardstick, and the wrong things are counted in GDP. I attribute our present malaise to competition from other countries who produce far more useful goods and services PER LABOR DOLLAR. That is, cheap wages. And, they use all the mass production and automation technology that we developed here, too, so we are on a roughly equal footing there in some cases, relative to productivity per labor hour. But it is hard to compete with someone working for starvation wages.

I submit that most of the reason for the so-called productivity gains, is not productivity at all. It just looks that way because the GDP is measured in DOLLARS, which are inflating significantly. Also, the "financialization" of the economy has given us huge increases in the dollar amounts of GDP, while producing exactly nothing. It's the 'FIRE' economy being measured in inflating dollars and wrongly attributed as an increase in productivity. (FIRE = Finance, Insurance, Real Estate) The transfer of huge sums of digital money from our pockets into Wall Street is NOT 'useful goods and services', so it is not productivity.

Neither can we call dollar inflation productivity. Sales of higher priced primary commodities are being measured instead of the quantity of them. We spend more for gasoline now, but are using fewer barrels of oil, for instance. That is not an increase in productivity. The same goes for higher priced food. Our entire GDP is analagous to the higher priced box of cereal in the ever-shrinking package, as Federal Reserve printed dollars make their way into the economy. The Fed does not create productivity, workers do.

And, a big portion of GDP is from spending govt. transfer payments. I once heard transfer payments defined as a transfusion from your left arm (wage earners) into your right arm (welfare recipients), with a leaky hose (govt. waste).

The writer concludes that:
"But we are not well positioned for the kind of explosion of efficiency we will need. Our government finances are in shambles, our public sector is woefully inefficient, and our private economy is very poorly served by a set of policies and institutions that seem intent on denying us a productive future workforce and on subjecting more and more of the economy to a regulatory mindset that prefers consolidation to growth."

I agree comepletely. What I wish he had gone into is the additional limit to growth imposed by a shrinking resouce and energy supply. The bottom line is, those things will prevent any meaningful growth. What we need to be adapting to is a steady state economy. But NOBODY wants to hear that, so we will never hear it from any politician. Their vested interest is in telling people what they want to hear. Thus, by definition, NO politician will never do anything constructive for our present dilemna.

So, they have to misdirect our attention to something besides the real problems. "Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! I am the Great and Powerful Wizard of Oz!" Too many STILL believe in the Wizard, Santa Claus, Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, et al.

We have to look to ourselves to solve our individual problems as best we can. The best we can hope for is that the politicians stay out of the way, since they make themselve largely irrelevant. Fat chance of that.

[grumble]

Thought-provoking post, WHI. Took the topics off in so many directions that I could never hope to respond to all the tangents you pointed me towards.

I thought the article was excellent. Minor points of disagreement, but none worth debating here, IMO.

I did notice that he didn't branch into WORLD economic interrelations (probably because it was an article, not a three volume book) that also constrain and mold what we can do as a nation.

A point worth making is that about half the US population supports the other half. I could understand if 10-20 percent were in that "supported" fraction, but HALF? And that supported fraction isn't shrinking, it's growing, and at a faster rate than the population growth. At some point, Atlas is going to shrug, and decide that he doesn't want to hold the world up all by himself any more. Or, he'll just move to the Greater Antilles and keep what he earns for himself.

From a different perspective, I've read that half the US population (a different, but overlapping half) of the US population derives most of their livelihood from the Federal Government. Sounds to me like maybe that number is a bit high, too.

Maybe there's a way to undo what's been done over the last 50 or so years, but so long as half the voters will come out on the bottom of the changes, at least for the short term, I just can't see the necessary changes happening. Few people will vote against their own chosen way of life. More likely, they'd vote for a Lenin or Mao style cultural revolution to take everything from the "haves" and disburse it to the "have-nots." That idea is as old as our society, and illustrated in the nursery story of the people who killed the Golden Goose.

Post apocalypse movies? Wow, there are lots of those. Sadly, most seem to be of the "Mad Max" variety. And the ones with some actual thought behind them are usually pretty boring, from "Fahrenheit 451" to "1984" to "Clockwork Orange." "Soylent Green" was slightly better, but still not a blockbuster. "Hunger Games" combines the popularity of great special effects with some social creativity, I assume -- I haven't seen the movie, just read the trilogy.

I'm with you on "Josie Wales." Some of the lines from that movie are classic.

To end my own rambling, I'd just offer a couple things. First, things always get worse before they get better. Just ask the Russians from around 1910 or the Chinese from the 1950s. And things get better very slowly. Somehow, despite the hardships imposed, some semblance of society always seems to come through. It may be social evolution, or simply necessary a thinning of the herd.

[midmo]

To end my own rambling, I'd just offer a couple things. First, things always get worse before they get better. Just ask the Russians from around 1910 or the Chinese from the 1950s. And things get better very slowly. Somehow, despite the hardships imposed, some semblance of society always seems to come through. It may be social evolution, or simply necessary a thinning of the herd.

See you folks on the other side! :yes4: