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  #1  
Old 08-31-2017, 03:34 AM
Hermit Hermit is offline
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Default It looks like the East Coast is next...

One of the weather websites I frequent is Ventusky; it's almost frighteningly accurate for long-range weather forecasting (with the exception of thunderstorms, at which it fails miserably). Those folks really have chaos theory nailed down.

A full week before Harvey hit Texas, this website was modeling it exactly how it turned out; when Harvey was still in the Yucatan Peninsula, it was forecasting it to go north to Texas, turn left, go to San Antonio, reverse course, go offshore, build strength, and make landfall at Galveston.

It was dead accurate. A week in advance.

What concerns me now is that it is showing a hurricane that makes Harvey look like a spring shower heading for the East Coast; it doesn't show yet where it is projected to make landfall, but extrapolating from the current track makes it somewhere around Okracoke, NC.

Even two to three days from landfall, before it really hits the Gulf Stream, it's forecasting (at the moment) 115-plus MPH winds at 10 meters above ground level. We ought to be in for some unfortunate excitement next week.

I think I'll start building up my supplies before work tomorrow. Water, full tank of gas, batteries, etc...

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=29.5;-72...09/06&w=strong

(note the time-bar and the calendar menu you can click on at the bottom of the screen)

Last edited by Hermit; 08-31-2017 at 03:43 AM.
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  #2  
Old 08-31-2017, 11:46 AM
hunter88 hunter88 is online now
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Nice site, will add that to my weather links. Thanks.
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  #3  
Old 08-31-2017, 01:21 PM
Doninalaska Doninalaska is offline
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Very unique site! Thanks!
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Old 09-02-2017, 01:55 AM
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(a couple of days later)

Ventusky is now predicting it as turning north and away from land when it's a few hundred miles off the coast of Okracoke; the bad news is that it's showing it as being aimed directly at... New York City...

If this model is accurate, it's predicting it will go right up the Hudson River, with sustained winds of over 110 at the surface and over 120 at 1500 feet (skyscraper altitude). Plus, the track shows the largest swath of hurricane-force winds over Connecticut and Massachusetts, so unlike Hurricane Sandy, there'll be no convenient trip over the state line to get a tankful of gas.

For everyone's sake, of course, I wish it would hang a right and go out to sea, but part of me fears the worst.

Last edited by Hermit; 09-02-2017 at 01:57 AM. Reason: edited for clarity
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Old 09-02-2017, 08:36 AM
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Wow! That Ventusky ap is amazing!

I wonder if they get their information from the HAARP project?
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Old 09-02-2017, 04:17 PM
Doninalaska Doninalaska is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hermit View Post
(a couple of days later)

Ventusky is now predicting it as turning north and away from land when it's a few hundred miles off the coast of Okracoke; the bad news is that it's showing it as being aimed directly at... New York City...

If this model is accurate, it's predicting it will go right up the Hudson River, with sustained winds of over 110 at the surface and over 120 at 1500 feet (skyscraper altitude). Plus, the track shows the largest swath of hurricane-force winds over Connecticut and Massachusetts, so unlike Hurricane Sandy, there'll be no convenient trip over the state line to get a tankful of gas.

For everyone's sake, of course, I wish it would hang a right and go out to sea, but part of me fears the worst.
Only 4 hurricanes have attained Cat 3 status by the mid-Atlantic in the "satellite age" according to some of the other weather sites, but I believe all of them turned north and didn't make landfall on the mainland. Maybe it will hit D.C. and "rinse out the swamp".
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Old 09-02-2017, 05:38 PM
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Yes. Interesting weather site.
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E-mailed with a guy in Atlanta. He is saying all they get from stuff like that is rain. But they are used to that.
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Flush the scum off the cess pool in DC... chuckle
When it is done there, send the storm to Ottawa.
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Old 09-03-2017, 03:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doninalaska View Post
Only 4 hurricanes have attained Cat 3 status by the mid-Atlantic in the "satellite age" according to some of the other weather sites, but I believe all of them turned north and didn't make landfall on the mainland. Maybe it will hit D.C. and "rinse out the swamp".
I believe you made your statement in jest, Don, but during my working career, I have been sent in to work as soon as the all clear was given, having seen & witnessed the devastating effects of several different hurricanes during their aftermath before the clean-up had progressed more than clearing the roads for traffic. Their effects are awesome, even before they spawn tornadoes, which many do. Many of the things I witnessed would be difficult to describe to someone who has never seen them up close & personal. The news cameras go after the sensational and breath taking shots, but two weeks, two months and two years later there are rarely any cameras recording what is left at that time.

Hurricane "Katrania" might be an exception to my last statement, and although readied for deployment following Katrina, once the levees broke circumstances changed and I did not have to deploy. But colleagues & friends who did, told stories which had feeling the news cameras could never reflect. (Some did not evacuate, and became trapped after the levees broke. New Orleans natives are a unique & special breed, and for those who do know one personally, Levon Helm described them to a "T" in his song "Hurricane," when he said speaking about a hurricane, "She's hard and she's cold and she's mean, But nobody's taught her that it takes, A lot of water to wash away New Orleans.") And to date, it hasn't happened, but Katrina came close to washing it away!

Even as putrid as D.C. has became, I really would not wish that much suffering on anyone, anywhere.
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Old 09-05-2017, 01:33 AM
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No one really knows how Mother Nature will really act, although the scientist who study these weather patterns are getting better at predicting the actions of Hurricanes, but to an untrained person, it looks like Florida and or the gulf is fixing to get slammed to me. Possible a repeat of Hugo.

I hope it does turn and go up the eastern coast and never come inland, but it is not looking that great at the moment. But we will all know what she does in a few more days.
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Old 09-05-2017, 03:04 AM
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Irma is now a CAT 4 and all Florida has declared state of emergency.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...nd120#contents
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Old 09-05-2017, 06:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jjr View Post
No one really knows how Mother Nature will really act, although the scientist who study these weather patterns are getting better at predicting the actions of Hurricanes, but to an untrained person, it looks like Florida and or the gulf is fixing to get slammed to me. Possible a repeat of Hugo.

I hope it does turn and go up the eastern coast and never come inland, but it is not looking that great at the moment. But we will all know what she does in a few more days.
Everything I see now progs it into the Caribbean by Friday before it turns north. Bad news for Cuba, Florida, and all the islands...maybe the entire southeast as the surrounding conditions are strange.
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Old 09-05-2017, 11:55 AM
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Cat 5. This morning
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Old 09-05-2017, 01:58 PM
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Back a few years ago, we had a daughter on the isle of St. Kitts which went through a category 5 Hurricane while she was there. She said all the homes and business are constructed to withstand hurricane force winds. Even under the best of circumstances, there will be damage when a hurricane breezes through town, but she talked like there was very little damage other than to utility structures, signs and other similar items, including cars not inside garages, or otherwise protected from the winds.
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Old 09-05-2017, 03:25 PM
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Some sites are already stating that Irma is already a Cat 5 storm. They are referring to it as a "Super Storm". When I dealt with tropical storms, they weren't "Super" until they passed 200 mph--a rare thing in the Atlantic, but not rare in the Pacific where they have much more room to build. If it curves into Florida, it may rake up the entire peninsula and affect the entire East Coast.
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Old 09-05-2017, 09:55 PM
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No matter which way it goes, I hope people are getting ready. And my prayers will be with all those affected, just as they are with the victims of Harvey.

Stay safe!
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Old 09-06-2017, 06:31 AM
Doninalaska Doninalaska is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CountryMom22 View Post
No matter which way it goes, I hope people are getting ready. And my prayers will be with all those affected, just as they are with the victims of Harvey.

Stay safe!
Good luck, CM! You may be affected by Irma--get prepared now before the rush.
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Old 09-07-2017, 05:05 PM
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A small side note to "being prepared" for a significant event.

With the forest fires near here. It was reported to us by MIL who was in the midst of that area, but did not have to evacuate. They were able to hunker down in place.

First things to sell out from local small town stores was booze and tobacco. Then followed in this order, gas, milk and bread.

Kind of an insight into sheeples priorities...
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  #18  
Old 09-12-2017, 02:08 PM
J R Adams J R Adams is offline
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Hermit,

Thanks for the Ventusky site.
I've been using the Navy's Tropical Cyclone page for several years.
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

I have been using both since you posted and find they correlate very well.
Ventusky forecasts further ahead but the TC page does follow.

Just hope these are independent of each other and still agree so close.

Thanks,
JR
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