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Old 07-25-2014, 10:12 AM
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randallhilton Male randallhilton is offline
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Default Carrington or CME near miss

According to the latest science news, that CME everyone was talking about a couple of years ago turned out to be a pretty near miss.

Here's one of the story links.

"While you didn’t see it, feel it, or even read about it in the newspapers, Earth was almost knocked back to the Stone Age on July 23, 2012. It wasn’t some crazed dictator with his finger on the thermonuclear button or a giant asteroid that came close to wiping out civilization as we know it, though — no, what nearly ended us was a massive solar storm. Almost two years ago to the day, our most bounteous and fantastical celestial body — the Sun — kicked out one of the largest solar flares and coronal mass ejections ever recorded. And it missed Earth by a whisker. “If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,” says Daniel Baker, who led the research into the massive solar storm. . ."

This could have been a real deal.

Use less, lose less, weigh the benefits, count the costs.
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Old 07-25-2014, 06:07 PM
Doninalaska Doninalaska is offline
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I have been following the sun for a while. Technology could go out the window in the "blink of an eye".
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Old 07-25-2014, 06:20 PM
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Txanne Female Txanne is offline
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I saw that story this am--scary huh?
We missed by a mere blink.

We could have been sitting here and talking and the next minute be looking for batteries if they even still worked.

I remember the long thread here on just that happening.(about 2 years ago)
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Old 07-25-2014, 07:46 PM
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oldmaidnc Female oldmaidnc is offline
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And now.. 2 years later, they release the info? More reason not to trust media.
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Old 07-25-2014, 10:02 PM
jvcstone jvcstone is offline
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Sun spits out These CME's all the time. Law of averages says we will get hit again. Just no telling when that might be (kinda like the super volcano popping off up in Yellowstone.) No body can do a damn thing to stop it when the time comes, so don't worry--be happy.

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Old 07-26-2014, 11:43 AM
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Bearfootfarm Male Bearfootfarm is offline
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Originally Posted by oldmaidnc View Post
And now.. 2 years later, they release the info? More reason not to trust media.
They use sattelites and sensors to detect such events as they happen, but it may be years before scientists get around to analyzing all the data to reach any valid conclusions

It's also likely it WAS released sooner, and many just didn't see the reports

Here's some reports I found from a year ago:

Part of the reason it's in the news now is this past week was the second anniversary of the event:


This week marks the second anniversary of a scary near-miss.

On July 23, 2012, Earth narrowly evaded a powerful solar storm

Last edited by Bearfootfarm; 07-26-2014 at 12:22 PM.
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Old 07-28-2014, 12:16 PM
bltjr1951 bltjr1951 is offline
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There's all kinds of near misses happening.
And they always tell us about it after it happens.
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Old 08-06-2014, 01:18 PM
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S2man S2man is offline
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My morning routine includes checking the news (war, finances...), terrestrial weather, and solar weather. It usually takes about two days for a solar event to reach us.

This is the gov site. Easy to read current status, but no predictions.

This site tracks sunspots, tells which ones have the potential to erupt and the chances of an eruption and geomagnetic storms. They also cover other cool space stuff like meteor showers and Northern lights.

Last edited by S2man; 08-06-2014 at 03:05 PM.
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Old 03-18-2016, 04:27 PM
RochBear Male RochBear is offline
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Default EMP threat

I know this is an old topic, but I read through it, and thought I'd share some updated info.

A solar EMP, could cause all the electrical grid on the sun facing side of the earth to go down. It could fry all the large transformers, and thus take decades to repair. As usual, these large transformers are no longer made in the USA, and they are quite expensive, and thus no one has more than 1 spare laying around. There are over 125 of these very large transformers in the USA, and it takes several years after ordering one, before it arrives. But the good news is, if your power is locally produced, it doesn't go through one of these very large transformers. Therefore, a Solar EMP might drop the entire grid, but pockets of power would come back on line, fairly quickly (within a week)

As for a nuke EMP, that's a different story. If a missile were launched to say 50,000 feet, and a nuke set off, the resulting EMP would destroy everything containing printed circuit board, every capacitor, and every coil. Basically everything which we have become dependent on. (no cars, no trucks, no electricity at all - it would wipe out solar charge controllers, and inverters. No radios.) The only way to protect things from this is to have them completely isolated in a faraday cage. But don't take things out right away, since if the USA were nuked, we would nuke someone back.... so there may be more EMPs in the near future. (that's if there is anyone left alive to care).

But let's keep this to a single (or coordinated) EMP attack. The electric grid, and everything plugged in would be junk. The best guess is that Solar panels, and batteries would survive. (however the blocking diode in some solar panels would be shot) Your charge controller and inverter would be paper weights. Therefore, to survive, you should have backup charge controllers and inverters stored in Faraday cages. Also you would need the electronics which you plan to run in a Faraday cage. (things like two way radios, Microwave ovens, lap top computers (with DVDs of all the things you need to know about), LED light bulbs) Also you should have in Faraday cages things like Chain saws, spare coils, capacitors, for older style ignitioned cars, generators, etc. Since a Nuke EMP would wipe out those as well.

Many people don't realize all the things which need electricity to run. Things like Refineries. So there would be no gasoline or diesel fuel. Refrigeration - even the modern propane fridge has a micro processor in it, unless you look hard to find an all mechanical one.

Yes, this would throw us back into the stone age. The reason is, 200 years ago, everyone had horses, and wood/coal fireplaces/stoves. Transportation was done with horse, and steam train. Most of those have been done away with, and the ability to produce enough horses and steam trains is not easily done. Almost everyone's water is pumped with electricity. Also most sewage systems use electricity - even a lot of septic systems have pumps in them.

So unless you live completely off grid, and have no electrical devices (how would you be reading this, if that were the case?) Unless you are 100% self sufficient (no gasoline, no diesel, no canning jar lids,) you would be effected by an EMP, and not for the better.

It's very scary to think of how vulnerable we are to this type of attack. Some of the best estimates say, that 90% of the population of the USA would be dead within 18 months, due to starvation, sickness, dehydration, and basic anarchy. Personally I think that number is low, since 1 in 10 people don't have the ability to keep from freezing to death, and to preserve enough food, and the ability to doctor themselves. Now the people who read this forum, I would say, maybe 10% of us might survive, but we are already people who are preparing for the worst.

Some parting thoughts. A basic family (2-5 people) is not enough man power to do everything you would need to do to survive. You would have to partner up with others. That way you could make use of economies of scale - especially in food preparation, blacksmithing, gardening, heating (ie cutting wood), guarding (keeping out people who would use their guns to take your stuff), raising animals, and food for them (ie farming), harvesting ice in the winter time, so you could have ice boxes for most of the summer. The number of man hours to do all the above is huge. And the only way to successfully do this, is to have a large number of men (and women) to be able to pull it off.

Now is the time to prepare, after the lights go out, it will be MUCH harder.

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Old 03-22-2016, 05:07 PM
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As someone posted earlier, the Sun is always throwing off these flairs. It's just a matter of time before another one causes damage here. The Carrington event was in mid-19th century. There was another smaller, but still significant event in the early 20th century. While two points don't define a trend, we may be just about due.

I'm not so sure anyone will attempt a nuclear attack with an EMP as its purpose.

(a)While very powerful, a nuclear storm via weapon is extremely short lived (milliseconds). That would ruin printed circuits, microchips, transistors and such, but probably not strong enough to damage armature coils in motors and generators, ie- damage is not predictable and may not be worth trying yet still risking nuclear retaliation.

(2) The nuclear blast would have to be delivered at a height of about 450 miles (the space station is at 400 miles). That would require a large amount of nuclear fuel, very large rocket and a very sophisticated guidance and detonation system-- not the sort of thing a sleeper cell of crazy Jihadists could accomplish.

(C) That blast would only deliver its damage over a radius on the ground of less than 1500 miles. They could chose to damage either one of the coasts, but not both, or the central US but not a coast. Ie- one blast would leave plenty of our country intact to initiate that certain retaliation and to rebuild the other half.

Lousy risk/benefit ratio in initiating an EMP event via nuclear attack.
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Old 03-22-2016, 05:47 PM
Doninalaska Doninalaska is offline
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I think the theory is that a blast over both coasts would cascade through the grid and take out power over most of the U.S. I read one theory that that is the reason Iran wants the bomb. That would not take out all the computers, but it would take out a lot of the transformers that are in such short supply, and mostly made in China, I think. We would be in the dark for months at least, if it were to be carried out properly. A number of folks have been working with Congress for years trying to get the funding to put "breakers into the system so a massive surge would not shut the entire grid, but so far they have been unsuccessful.
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Old 03-22-2016, 09:26 PM
Kachad Male Kachad is offline
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Originally Posted by Doninalaska View Post
That would not take out all the computers, but it would take out a lot of the transformers that are in such short supply, and mostly made in China, I think. We would be in the dark for months at least, if it were to be carried out properly.
This information is dated, but relates directly to your point:

"The total annual production capacity of the six domestic factories was approximately 50,000 MVA in 2010, far below the U.S. market demand of 127,309 MVA"

Regarding Imports - Large Power Transformers (100 MVA)
South Korea = 34%
Canada = 10%
Mexico = 11%
China = <5%

So, if the scenario you referenced played out - your statement regarding recovery time is sound, and probably much longer.

Just thought I would toss the info out there, I used to work with some of the local transformer manufacturers.
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Old 02-19-2017, 08:48 PM
Lurch Male Lurch is offline
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I was just listening to "Science Fantastic" on the radio, hosted by the scientist Michio Kaku. Someone called in to ask about the Carrington Effect. Its the first time that I'd heard the story of what happened. Kaku basically said that when it happens again, society will go back in time 200 years, so to speak.
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