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Preparedness/Survival Skills/BOBs/Kits/Gear If it will help keep you going when TSHTF, talk about it here.

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Old 03-21-2015, 01:59 PM
connie189 Female connie189 is offline
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Just wondering...

Since there are so many different scenarios to prepare for, how does one determine which route to take (to prepare).

Terrorism, natural disaster, etc.

How do we know if we've covered all the possibilities?

Thanks...trying to map out a plan of action.
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Old 03-21-2015, 02:58 PM
Setanta Male Setanta is offline
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Just wondering...

Since there are so many different scenarios to prepare for, how does one determine which route to take (to prepare).

Terrorism, natural disaster, etc.

How do we know if we've covered all the possibilities?

Thanks...trying to map out a plan of action.

covering all the possibilities isn't really practical, is it possible an asteroid could instantly kill half the worlds population and lay waste to everything like what happened to the dinosaurs? sure its possible, but that kind of devistation happens millions of year appart, your more likely to see a glacier roll over your house, melt away then roll over 10 more times (assuming your immortal to live 1 million more years) than to see an asteroid impact like that.

possible yes, probable no.

I base my "preps" if i call them that, on things that are probable, its probable that next winter there will be weather in the sub zero temperatures, since i don't like freezing i "prep" to be sure i can heat my shack. i know lots of people who depend on oil to heat with, and when i did i too would have had to simply pay the devilery company, so to prep for that need i would need to be sure to have money in advance. many people i know don't do that, and when winter rolls around they are struggling to keep their finances ahead enough paycheck to paycheck to pay for fuel, relying on credit when desperate then payingit off in time for next years credit desperation. better to have a tank full early in the season and keep it topped off, with a second tank as backup.

in the past i couldn't afford even that and there were years i had no heat. then there is the posibility of power outages that would render such equipment useless anyway. so to run an oil furnace would require oil, electric, and spare parts.

a sound backup system like a wood stove would make it less likely that freezing will be a problem, i myself hated dealing with fuel companies and went with the safet bet and rely on a wood stove. my shack stays warm because i manually load and light the fire, i set up the chimney so i could clean it myself to reduce the risk of chimney fire, i have a battery powered co2 detector and a smoke detector and charge the batteries regularly with a mini solar charger (and have 2 backup way to charge it). to light the fire i need fuel, indling and tinder. so i save up free traders and penny savers and free newspapers for tinder, keep 2 barrels of broken up kindling (so i can refill the tinderbox, like a tinder woodshed), keep several boxes of matches, extra lighters, etc. i also have 2 woodsheds, so in the unlikely event one shed might burn down i have a second supply. i have enough wood cut to last 3 years and refill the supply over the winter and spring so i always have a 3 year supply.

to cut wood i need a chainsaw, so i have a good one, then when i was offered a second at a good price (keep alive to opportunity) i bought it, i have spare parts for the things that wear down, got training as a mechanic (Dolmar factory training for small engines), have spare bars, and chain, have PPE (personal protective Equipment), i keep 2 gallons of premixed shelf stable gas and a gallon of bar oil as backup for the station gas i use (will run my saw long enough to cut 2 years worth of firewood). i also have axes and bucksaws/crosscut saws, and know how to not only use and maintain them , i know enough blacksmithing that i can fabricate them if everything else fails. so i have 2 years worth of wood and a 3rd in a shed further away for fire protection, a saw, then a backup saw, then a hand saw, then can make a handsaw. all to protect my fuel supply to keep my woodstove running, reduce risks, etc.

this is how i "prep" i look at a basic need and i assess variables to make it more reliable, and then make redundant steps to keep it working, same with water, food, shelter, housing etc.

if my shack were to burn down, it would take me only 1 day to convert one of my woodsheds into a rudimentary cabin that keeps out wind and rain, set up a woodstove as a heat source and set up a light source, and provide living space to use while i rebuild. I anticipate a need, assess risks to it, and take steps to mitigate those risks (as such i know how to fabricate tools and resources from just about anything, so my place is full of homemade stuff). i assess any experiences i have and constantly reassess changing resources and conditions. of course if that asteroid hits tomorrow i am sure i'm totally screwed since i haven't prepared for that
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Old 03-21-2015, 03:44 PM
Terri Terri is offline
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I, too, decided to prep for the most likely trouble IN MY AREA!

For me, that is unemployment, illness, or loss of power due to bad weather.

So, I have stashed some shelf-stable food for if the weather is too bad for us to safely shop (Like in an ice storm), I have set aside some wood for the fireplace, gotten extra propane for the back yard grill to make cooking easier, and bought a kerosene heater and fuel. I figure that covers me for bad weather

I have some money in a savings account that I will not touch because that is to feed us in case of financial trouble. I also have the food I stashed for bad weather. I bought the kind of foods that we like instead of buying a survival bucket: we have mac n cheese, noodles, pasta sauce, canned beef in gravy, and so forth. I also have a vegetable garden

As for illness, the food I have stashed will make easy meals for the guys to fix if I am too ill to cook.

And, we have also stored water in case the water is shut off, as we had to do when the pipes were being repaired.

As you can see, prepping for one problem can help you prep for another problem. Food is a constant for no matter the problem.
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Old 03-21-2015, 04:10 PM
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I agree with what has been posted so far.

Nobody can predict any of this, but there are some things that we can prepare ourselves for.

Like Setana talks about heat. We used our wood stove for many years cutting/splitting our own wood - free heat. Then it got to the point of not being able to do that so we ended up buying our firewood cut/split/delivered. At today's price that comes to ~$825 for 5 1/2 cord average use. Now it is to the point of not being able to handle the firewood at all so we are back to using oil. This first winter doing that will cost me ~$2100. So with the subject at hand one of our main preparations is the save the money throughout the year to pay for the oil delivery in the summer.

Food is another item but that has been discussed at length in other threads.

So the question was "what scenario do we prepare for?" Any or all, but I don't drive myself nuts worrying about it. We are prepared to "bug in" vs. "bug out" so we just make sure we cover the basics the best we can.

Extended period without electricity
Fuel for heat - both having the oil tank and the wood shed full
Food - have at least 3 month supply on hand - need to slowly gain more.
Water - have a spring 20' from the front porch.

Anything other than that isn't worth thinking about in my book - you could drive yourself crazy trying to predict all the different types of SHTF scenarios.
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Old 03-21-2015, 06:31 PM
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So the question was "what scenario do we prepare for?"
The details don't matter all that much, since your requirements remain the same for the most part.

Food, shelter, heat and a way to cook are the basic necessities.

Around here the most common cause of problems is weather in the form of Hurricanes or Tornadoes


Try to keep as much cash on hand as you can, since many places can't sell anything if the power is out.

You may also need it in the rare "bug out" instances
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Old 03-21-2015, 08:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Bearfootfarm View Post
The details don't matter all that much, since your requirements remain the same for the most part.

Food, shelter, heat and a way to cook are the basic necessities.

Around here the most common cause of problems is weather in the form of Hurricanes or Tornadoes


Try to keep as much cash on hand as you can, since many places can't sell anything if the power is out.

You may also need it in the rare "bug out" instances
All is very true.

Tornadoes & Hurricanes in that order are the two main weather threats here, with flooding sometimes following weather problems. We are high so flooding is not a direct threat to us personally, but it can disrupt travel, but if one is prepared in advance, there should be no need to travel.

I also agree with the basic necessities listed, but I would also add two more personally to the "short list" of basic necessities: medicines and first aid supplies. An injury can happen at anytime and especially under adverse conditions, at the most inopportune time even a minor injury can develop an infection which can turn ugly real quickly if left untreated. It is always advisable to have on hand OTC Medicines for pain and other discomforts.

To repeat myself, from another thread, we prepare for Whatever, and feel that if we are prepared for whatever, that covers ALL probable situations, regardless of the form the threat assumes.

The remote or highly unlikely scenarios we probably don't have the financial resources to prepare for anyway, as I suspect most other individuals share that situation. A minor asteroid projected to cover an area the size of Texas, being somewhere besides the projected impact zone would probably be the best preparation. But if the impact is projected to cover the continental 48 states or a larger area still, we likely will not survive a disaster of such magnitude. So preparing for such a disaster of such proportions is just not feasible for us.
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Old 03-21-2015, 09:22 PM
Lurch Male Lurch is offline
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I believe that training and education are good routes to follow. The only strong suit that a Human has is their brain. But you have to fill it with the right stuff.
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Old 03-22-2015, 01:23 AM
connie189 Female connie189 is offline
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Well, there's a fault that runs down the Mississippi that goes through the downtown area not far from where I live and is overdue (bigger than the one in CA)...

I live two blocks from Lake Michigan (large body of water).

The land we're on now is built up (filler) from the Chicago fire in 1871. So we're sort of "floating" (up to a certain point, like at least to where I live).

There is the Illinois Central Railroad line that runs a block from us; they carry flammable chemicals (a long line of cars) every so often.

There are chemical plants outside the city limits (about 25 minutes from us) that had a sulfuric acid leak about 6 years ago and another plant had a similar leak with another caustic chemical.

Hey, this doesn't sound good, LOL.
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Old 03-22-2015, 01:29 AM
connie189 Female connie189 is offline
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I saw a segment of a show today that talked about prepping for flood disasters; advised stockpiling food. Then they gave an example of Katrina where food was floating out of people's basements, looters breaking in (while people were sill in their homes).

My thought was that if you had major flooding, you'd probably have to leave (and your stockpiled food?)

Oh, another show about the planet and what if the Yellowstone Volcano erupted, the planet would actually grow colder and kill off plants (food supply).

http://www.vox.com/2014/9/5/6108169/...lcano-eruption

I'm barely in the bad zone (for the volcano), but just enough... Got to move for sure!
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Old 03-22-2015, 02:28 AM
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80/20 rule - we're not going to have hurricane or a wildfire in N. IL. When was the last time Chicago proper got hit by a tornado? Or a massive flood? What is the longest power outage to hit Chicago? IMHO, economic downturn is the "situation" most likely to affect most of us.
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Old 03-22-2015, 12:32 PM
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I think that a pandemic could be a likely scenario, wherever one lives. Case in point: the 1917 flu epidemic. It infected up to 500 million people worldwide. 50-100 million died as a result of it. With the way people travel nowadays, its a wonder that this hasn't happened again. One way to prepare for this: live in a low population dense area. We are our own worst enemy.
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Old 03-22-2015, 12:48 PM
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I think that a pandemic could be a likely scenario, wherever one lives. Case in point: the 1917 flu epidemic. It infected up to 500 million people worldwide. 50-100 million died as a result of it. With the way people travel nowadays, its a wonder that this hasn't happened again. One way to prepare for this: live in a low population dense area. We are our own worst enemy.

indeed, pandemic, or epidemic (pandemic is worldwide, epidemic is regional to one country, one continent, etc) is more likely than a lot of other things, like yellowstone super volcano. they used to burn through populations regularly. entire towns were being wiped out of existance as recent as the 1910s. North America was rappidly depopulated prior to colonization not because of guns and horses, but because the tribes had no resistance to the new diseases early explorers brought (the aztecs lost mexico city to a few thousand spanish because their own 300,000 strong army was literally already dying in the streets and the spanish just had to walk over them because they were already exposed as children and therfore imune), famine and drought are also practical.

as per pandemic i was working for one of the tribes in the northeast when the bird flu scare came out. there was a ton of emergency planning, contingency plans, community training, etc, all tribal employees had to get mandatory pandemic responce training. they took the threat very seriously, having already lost most of the continent because of pandemics their ancestors just barely survived.

the basic plan was for everyone to self quaranteen to stop the spread, stay in their homes, cut off all travel and services and wait it out.
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Old 03-22-2015, 01:29 PM
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I can't harp on this low population density thing enough. If you're serious about survival its something you've got to at least consider. I know its tough to leave the familiarity of family and friends behind. But, lets face it, most of our ancestors did just this when they left the "old country". I personally have made this move several times. Each move is more remote than the last. My goal is to live in an area with a density of 1-2 people per square mile. The funny thing is that after I have moved to a new place, my relatives end up following me there after a few years. Can't they take a hint?
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Old 03-22-2015, 01:43 PM
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I can't harp on this low population density thing enough. If you're serious about survival its something you've got to at least consider. I know its tough to leave the familiarity of family and friends behind. But, lets face it, most of our ancestors did just this when they left the "old country". I personally have made this move several times. Each move is more remote than the last. My goal is to live in an area with a density of 1-2 people per square mile. The funny thing is that after I have moved to a new place, my relatives end up following me there after a few years. Can't they take a hint?
I agree 100%. I am as about rural (remote) as I can be east of the Mississippi with what my finances will allow. Any move will be even more remote out west somewhere. I like the fact that there are more deer than people in my county.

Big cities are big targets - more bang for the buck when it comes to terrorism and such. The more densely populated the more damage can be done with the same amount of force.
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Old 03-22-2015, 02:31 PM
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I find the population density issue to be really interesting. If you want to know your States density, just Google (Your State) population density by County. In my State the least dense county is Clark County. It has a density of 0.6 people per square mile, with a total population of 982. You know that there is usually a darn good reason for a low population. I have passed through Clark County on several occasions and there is not a whole lot of anything there. I did see a wolf on the side of the road there one time. It looked kind of hungry, too.
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Old 03-22-2015, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by connie189 View Post
Well, there's a fault that runs down the Mississippi that goes through the downtown area not far from where I live and is overdue (bigger than the one in CA)...

I live two blocks from Lake Michigan (large body of water).

The land we're on now is built up (filler) from the Chicago fire in 1871. So we're sort of "floating" (up to a certain point, like at least to where I live).

There is the Illinois Central Railroad line that runs a block from us; they carry flammable chemicals (a long line of cars) every so often.

There are chemical plants outside the city limits (about 25 minutes from us) that had a sulfuric acid leak about 6 years ago and another plant had a similar leak with another caustic chemical.

Hey, this doesn't sound good, LOL.
When did you say you were moving?
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Old 03-22-2015, 03:59 PM
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I find the population density issue to be really interesting. If you want to know your States density, just Google (Your State) population density by County. In my State the least dense county is Clark County. It has a density of 0.6 people per square mile, with a total population of 982. You know that there is usually a darn good reason for a low population. I have passed through Clark County on several occasions and there is not a whole lot of anything there. I did see a wolf on the side of the road there one time. It looked kind of hungry, too.
That's interesting. I looked at my county:

County population density - 15
Township population density - 4.7

Not bad considering I am in the east.
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Old 03-22-2015, 04:25 PM
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That's interesting. I looked at my county:

County population density - 15
Township population density - 4.7

Not bad considering I am in the east.
Those are real good numbers for anywhere in the US.
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Old 03-22-2015, 04:49 PM
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Those are real good numbers for anywhere in the US.
Yeah, but I am jealous of your 0.6!
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Old 03-22-2015, 05:31 PM
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Yeah, but I am jealous of your 0.6!
I don't live anywhere near Clark County, though. Its several hundred miles from me. I'm up in the panhandle, squeezed between WA and MT. The density of my county is 21. There's one county between me and Canada and its density is 8. But, the county just to the south of me is 111 people per square mile. Sometimes those numbers are misleading as in the case of Nevada. Las Vegas completely throws off the density for the rest of the State.
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